Long-term Electricity Forecasting: A System Dynamics Approach

Electricity has become an important source of energy for human development. Forecasting electricity demand plays a pivotal role in electricity planning. It provides a mechanism to have a balance between supply and demand. A system dynamics model is developed using population and per capita consum...

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Main Authors: Ahmad, Salman, Razman, Mat Tahar
Format: Conference or Workshop Item
Language:English
Published: 2012
Subjects:
Online Access:http://umpir.ump.edu.my/id/eprint/2462/
http://umpir.ump.edu.my/id/eprint/2462/1/ICEEB_Conf_final_.pdf
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author Ahmad, Salman
Razman, Mat Tahar
author_facet Ahmad, Salman
Razman, Mat Tahar
author_sort Ahmad, Salman
building UMP Institutional Repository
collection Online Access
description Electricity has become an important source of energy for human development. Forecasting electricity demand plays a pivotal role in electricity planning. It provides a mechanism to have a balance between supply and demand. A system dynamics model is developed using population and per capita consumption of electricity to forecast electricity demand for coming 10 years. Malaysia is used as a case study. It is found that that by using two variables, a fairly accurate forecast can be obtained. The simulation model estimates that at the current rate of consumption and population growth there will be a need of 192.5trillionwatt-hour of electric energy in year 2021.
first_indexed 2025-11-15T01:15:45Z
format Conference or Workshop Item
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institution Universiti Malaysia Pahang
institution_category Local University
language English
last_indexed 2025-11-15T01:15:45Z
publishDate 2012
recordtype eprints
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spelling ump-24622018-08-10T07:49:09Z http://umpir.ump.edu.my/id/eprint/2462/ Long-term Electricity Forecasting: A System Dynamics Approach Ahmad, Salman Razman, Mat Tahar TK Electrical engineering. Electronics Nuclear engineering Electricity has become an important source of energy for human development. Forecasting electricity demand plays a pivotal role in electricity planning. It provides a mechanism to have a balance between supply and demand. A system dynamics model is developed using population and per capita consumption of electricity to forecast electricity demand for coming 10 years. Malaysia is used as a case study. It is found that that by using two variables, a fairly accurate forecast can be obtained. The simulation model estimates that at the current rate of consumption and population growth there will be a need of 192.5trillionwatt-hour of electric energy in year 2021. 2012 Conference or Workshop Item PeerReviewed application/pdf en http://umpir.ump.edu.my/id/eprint/2462/1/ICEEB_Conf_final_.pdf Ahmad, Salman and Razman, Mat Tahar (2012) Long-term Electricity Forecasting: A System Dynamics Approach. In: International Conference on Environment, Energy and Biotechnology , 5-6 May 2012 , Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. . (Published)
spellingShingle TK Electrical engineering. Electronics Nuclear engineering
Ahmad, Salman
Razman, Mat Tahar
Long-term Electricity Forecasting: A System Dynamics Approach
title Long-term Electricity Forecasting: A System Dynamics Approach
title_full Long-term Electricity Forecasting: A System Dynamics Approach
title_fullStr Long-term Electricity Forecasting: A System Dynamics Approach
title_full_unstemmed Long-term Electricity Forecasting: A System Dynamics Approach
title_short Long-term Electricity Forecasting: A System Dynamics Approach
title_sort long-term electricity forecasting: a system dynamics approach
topic TK Electrical engineering. Electronics Nuclear engineering
url http://umpir.ump.edu.my/id/eprint/2462/
http://umpir.ump.edu.my/id/eprint/2462/1/ICEEB_Conf_final_.pdf