Forecasting natural rubber production in Malaysia: box-jenkins vs artificial neural network method / Liyana Husna Shamsudin and Nur Fadhliana Ithnin
The present study aims as applying different methods for forecasting the production of natural rubber in Malaysia. Two different methods, Box-Jenkins and Artificial Neural Network, were used to forecast the production of rubber. The monthly data from 1984 until 2017 were the data used to analyse and...
| Main Authors: | , |
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| Format: | Thesis |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
2018
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://ir.uitm.edu.my/id/eprint/32569/ |
| _version_ | 1848808057647136768 |
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| author | Shamsudin, Liyana Husna Ithnin, Nur Fadhliana |
| author_facet | Shamsudin, Liyana Husna Ithnin, Nur Fadhliana |
| author_sort | Shamsudin, Liyana Husna |
| building | UiTM Institutional Repository |
| collection | Online Access |
| description | The present study aims as applying different methods for forecasting the production of natural rubber in Malaysia. Two different methods, Box-Jenkins and Artificial Neural Network, were used to forecast the production of rubber. The monthly data from 1984 until 2017 were the data used to analyse and the data split into two part which is 1984-2016 is for fit the model and 2017 for validate the model. SARIMA (0,1,2) (0,1,2)12 is the best model for Box-Jenkins analysis while Multilayer Neural Network that contain 12 input nodes, 8 hidden nodes and 1 output nodes is the best model for Artificial Neural Network analysis. The performances of the models were compared and the result shows that Artificial Neural Network model was found to model the production better since it has the lowest MAPE value. Thus, Artificial Neural Network can be an effective tool for forecasting the production of natural rubber in Malaysia |
| first_indexed | 2025-11-14T22:52:40Z |
| format | Thesis |
| id | uitm-32569 |
| institution | Universiti Teknologi MARA |
| institution_category | Local University |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2025-11-14T22:52:40Z |
| publishDate | 2018 |
| recordtype | eprints |
| repository_type | Digital Repository |
| spelling | uitm-325692020-07-16T07:07:39Z https://ir.uitm.edu.my/id/eprint/32569/ Forecasting natural rubber production in Malaysia: box-jenkins vs artificial neural network method / Liyana Husna Shamsudin and Nur Fadhliana Ithnin Shamsudin, Liyana Husna Ithnin, Nur Fadhliana H Social Sciences (General) Study and teaching. Research The present study aims as applying different methods for forecasting the production of natural rubber in Malaysia. Two different methods, Box-Jenkins and Artificial Neural Network, were used to forecast the production of rubber. The monthly data from 1984 until 2017 were the data used to analyse and the data split into two part which is 1984-2016 is for fit the model and 2017 for validate the model. SARIMA (0,1,2) (0,1,2)12 is the best model for Box-Jenkins analysis while Multilayer Neural Network that contain 12 input nodes, 8 hidden nodes and 1 output nodes is the best model for Artificial Neural Network analysis. The performances of the models were compared and the result shows that Artificial Neural Network model was found to model the production better since it has the lowest MAPE value. Thus, Artificial Neural Network can be an effective tool for forecasting the production of natural rubber in Malaysia 2018-06 Thesis NonPeerReviewed text en https://ir.uitm.edu.my/id/eprint/32569/1/32569.pdf Shamsudin, Liyana Husna and Ithnin, Nur Fadhliana (2018) Forecasting natural rubber production in Malaysia: box-jenkins vs artificial neural network method / Liyana Husna Shamsudin and Nur Fadhliana Ithnin. (2018) Degree thesis, thesis, Universiti Teknologi MARA Cawangan Kelantan. |
| spellingShingle | H Social Sciences (General) Study and teaching. Research Shamsudin, Liyana Husna Ithnin, Nur Fadhliana Forecasting natural rubber production in Malaysia: box-jenkins vs artificial neural network method / Liyana Husna Shamsudin and Nur Fadhliana Ithnin |
| title | Forecasting natural rubber production in Malaysia: box-jenkins vs artificial neural network method / Liyana Husna Shamsudin and Nur Fadhliana Ithnin |
| title_full | Forecasting natural rubber production in Malaysia: box-jenkins vs artificial neural network method / Liyana Husna Shamsudin and Nur Fadhliana Ithnin |
| title_fullStr | Forecasting natural rubber production in Malaysia: box-jenkins vs artificial neural network method / Liyana Husna Shamsudin and Nur Fadhliana Ithnin |
| title_full_unstemmed | Forecasting natural rubber production in Malaysia: box-jenkins vs artificial neural network method / Liyana Husna Shamsudin and Nur Fadhliana Ithnin |
| title_short | Forecasting natural rubber production in Malaysia: box-jenkins vs artificial neural network method / Liyana Husna Shamsudin and Nur Fadhliana Ithnin |
| title_sort | forecasting natural rubber production in malaysia: box-jenkins vs artificial neural network method / liyana husna shamsudin and nur fadhliana ithnin |
| topic | H Social Sciences (General) Study and teaching. Research |
| url | https://ir.uitm.edu.my/id/eprint/32569/ |