A generalized modelling approach to assess climate influences on hand, foot, and mouth disease in East Coast Malaysia

Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) outbreaks in Asia have increased since the late 1990s, causing severe and often fatal consequences. Several statistical approaches, such as Generalized Linear Models (GLM) and Generalized Additive Models (GAM), have been used in numerous studies to examine the as...

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Main Authors: Nurmarni Athirah Abdul Wahid, Jamaludin Suhaila, Haliza Abd Rahman
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Penerbit Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia 2024
Online Access:http://journalarticle.ukm.my/25184/
http://journalarticle.ukm.my/25184/1/163-180%20Paper.pdf
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author Nurmarni Athirah Abdul Wahid,
Jamaludin Suhaila,
Haliza Abd Rahman,
author_facet Nurmarni Athirah Abdul Wahid,
Jamaludin Suhaila,
Haliza Abd Rahman,
author_sort Nurmarni Athirah Abdul Wahid,
building UKM Institutional Repository
collection Online Access
description Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) outbreaks in Asia have increased since the late 1990s, causing severe and often fatal consequences. Several statistical approaches, such as Generalized Linear Models (GLM) and Generalized Additive Models (GAM), have been used in numerous studies to examine the association between climate factors and HFMD cases. However, the results vary by country. In Malaysia, these issues require further research, as there are only a few studies employing GLM and GAM approaches that focus on HFMD cases and climate factors, particularly in the East Coast region. Therefore, this study explores the association between HFMD and climate factors on Malaysia's East Coast using GLM and GAM with Negative Binomial to identify the best model for interpreting HFMD cases. The findings show that climate factors affect HFMD differently across states in East Coast Malaysia. The results show that the GAM Negative Binomial model best represents these issues. The temperatures between 26°C and 28°C will decrease the risk of HFMD cases in Pahang over the next two weeks. Besides, temperatures ranging from 25 to 27°C and 28.5 to 30°C significantly increased HFMD risk in Terengganu over the next two weeks. Nevertheless, Kelantan found no correlation between climate and HFMD. These findings can help local health authorities in developing a climate-based early warning system to minimize HFMD outbreaks in Malaysia's East Coast Region.
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spelling oai:generic.eprints.org:251842025-05-07T07:18:54Z http://journalarticle.ukm.my/25184/ A generalized modelling approach to assess climate influences on hand, foot, and mouth disease in East Coast Malaysia Nurmarni Athirah Abdul Wahid, Jamaludin Suhaila, Haliza Abd Rahman, Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) outbreaks in Asia have increased since the late 1990s, causing severe and often fatal consequences. Several statistical approaches, such as Generalized Linear Models (GLM) and Generalized Additive Models (GAM), have been used in numerous studies to examine the association between climate factors and HFMD cases. However, the results vary by country. In Malaysia, these issues require further research, as there are only a few studies employing GLM and GAM approaches that focus on HFMD cases and climate factors, particularly in the East Coast region. Therefore, this study explores the association between HFMD and climate factors on Malaysia's East Coast using GLM and GAM with Negative Binomial to identify the best model for interpreting HFMD cases. The findings show that climate factors affect HFMD differently across states in East Coast Malaysia. The results show that the GAM Negative Binomial model best represents these issues. The temperatures between 26°C and 28°C will decrease the risk of HFMD cases in Pahang over the next two weeks. Besides, temperatures ranging from 25 to 27°C and 28.5 to 30°C significantly increased HFMD risk in Terengganu over the next two weeks. Nevertheless, Kelantan found no correlation between climate and HFMD. These findings can help local health authorities in developing a climate-based early warning system to minimize HFMD outbreaks in Malaysia's East Coast Region. Penerbit Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia 2024-11 Article PeerReviewed application/pdf en http://journalarticle.ukm.my/25184/1/163-180%20Paper.pdf Nurmarni Athirah Abdul Wahid, and Jamaludin Suhaila, and Haliza Abd Rahman, (2024) A generalized modelling approach to assess climate influences on hand, foot, and mouth disease in East Coast Malaysia. Journal of Quality Measurement and Analysis, 20 (3). pp. 163-180. ISSN 2600-8602 https://www.ukm.my/jqma/
spellingShingle Nurmarni Athirah Abdul Wahid,
Jamaludin Suhaila,
Haliza Abd Rahman,
A generalized modelling approach to assess climate influences on hand, foot, and mouth disease in East Coast Malaysia
title A generalized modelling approach to assess climate influences on hand, foot, and mouth disease in East Coast Malaysia
title_full A generalized modelling approach to assess climate influences on hand, foot, and mouth disease in East Coast Malaysia
title_fullStr A generalized modelling approach to assess climate influences on hand, foot, and mouth disease in East Coast Malaysia
title_full_unstemmed A generalized modelling approach to assess climate influences on hand, foot, and mouth disease in East Coast Malaysia
title_short A generalized modelling approach to assess climate influences on hand, foot, and mouth disease in East Coast Malaysia
title_sort generalized modelling approach to assess climate influences on hand, foot, and mouth disease in east coast malaysia
url http://journalarticle.ukm.my/25184/
http://journalarticle.ukm.my/25184/
http://journalarticle.ukm.my/25184/1/163-180%20Paper.pdf