Is Facebook PROPHET superior than hybrid ARIMA model to forecast crude oil price?
Oil price forecasting has received a great deal of attention from practitioners and researchers alike, but it remains a difficult topic because of its dependency on a variety of factors, including the economic cycle, international relations, and geopolitics. Forecasting the price of oil is a dif...
| Main Authors: | , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Penerbit Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia
2022
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| Online Access: | http://journalarticle.ukm.my/20468/ http://journalarticle.ukm.my/20468/1/22.pdf |
| _version_ | 1848815110669205504 |
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| author | Mukhriz Izraf Azman Aziz, Mohamad Hardyman Barawi, Hazrul Shahiri, |
| author_facet | Mukhriz Izraf Azman Aziz, Mohamad Hardyman Barawi, Hazrul Shahiri, |
| author_sort | Mukhriz Izraf Azman Aziz, |
| building | UKM Institutional Repository |
| collection | Online Access |
| description | Oil price forecasting has received a great deal of attention from practitioners and researchers alike, but it remains a
difficult topic because of its dependency on a variety of factors, including the economic cycle, international relations,
and geopolitics. Forecasting the price of oil is a difficult but gratifying task. Motivated by this issue, we present a robust
model for accurate crude oil price forecasting using ARIMA and Prophet models based on machine learning technique
to produce a reliable weekly and monthly crude oil price predictions. We apply the Savitzky–Golay smoothing filter to
get a better denoising performance for our forecast models. For model evaluation, we apply cross validation with sliding
windows on both models and compares the performances using RMSE and MAPE. The results show that the ARIMA-based machine learning approach performs better as compared to the Prophet model for both one-week and one-month
forecast ahead intervals. |
| first_indexed | 2025-11-15T00:44:46Z |
| format | Article |
| id | oai:generic.eprints.org:20468 |
| institution | Universiti Kebangasaan Malaysia |
| institution_category | Local University |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2025-11-15T00:44:46Z |
| publishDate | 2022 |
| publisher | Penerbit Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia |
| recordtype | eprints |
| repository_type | Digital Repository |
| spelling | oai:generic.eprints.org:204682022-11-10T07:35:40Z http://journalarticle.ukm.my/20468/ Is Facebook PROPHET superior than hybrid ARIMA model to forecast crude oil price? Mukhriz Izraf Azman Aziz, Mohamad Hardyman Barawi, Hazrul Shahiri, Oil price forecasting has received a great deal of attention from practitioners and researchers alike, but it remains a difficult topic because of its dependency on a variety of factors, including the economic cycle, international relations, and geopolitics. Forecasting the price of oil is a difficult but gratifying task. Motivated by this issue, we present a robust model for accurate crude oil price forecasting using ARIMA and Prophet models based on machine learning technique to produce a reliable weekly and monthly crude oil price predictions. We apply the Savitzky–Golay smoothing filter to get a better denoising performance for our forecast models. For model evaluation, we apply cross validation with sliding windows on both models and compares the performances using RMSE and MAPE. The results show that the ARIMA-based machine learning approach performs better as compared to the Prophet model for both one-week and one-month forecast ahead intervals. Penerbit Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia 2022-08 Article PeerReviewed application/pdf en http://journalarticle.ukm.my/20468/1/22.pdf Mukhriz Izraf Azman Aziz, and Mohamad Hardyman Barawi, and Hazrul Shahiri, (2022) Is Facebook PROPHET superior than hybrid ARIMA model to forecast crude oil price? Sains Malaysiana, 51 (8). pp. 2633-2643. ISSN 0126-6039 https://www.ukm.my/jsm/malay_journals/jilid51bil8_2022/KandunganJilid51Bil8_2022.html |
| spellingShingle | Mukhriz Izraf Azman Aziz, Mohamad Hardyman Barawi, Hazrul Shahiri, Is Facebook PROPHET superior than hybrid ARIMA model to forecast crude oil price? |
| title | Is Facebook PROPHET superior than hybrid ARIMA model to forecast crude oil price? |
| title_full | Is Facebook PROPHET superior than hybrid ARIMA model to forecast crude oil price? |
| title_fullStr | Is Facebook PROPHET superior than hybrid ARIMA model to forecast crude oil price? |
| title_full_unstemmed | Is Facebook PROPHET superior than hybrid ARIMA model to forecast crude oil price? |
| title_short | Is Facebook PROPHET superior than hybrid ARIMA model to forecast crude oil price? |
| title_sort | is facebook prophet superior than hybrid arima model to forecast crude oil price? |
| url | http://journalarticle.ukm.my/20468/ http://journalarticle.ukm.my/20468/ http://journalarticle.ukm.my/20468/1/22.pdf |