Current and future intensity-duration-frequency curves based on weighted ensemble GCMs and temporal disaggregation
Hydrological events are expected to increase in both magnitude and frequency in tropical areas due to climate variability. The Intensity – Duration – Frequency (IDF) curves are important means of evaluating the efficiency of irrigation and drainage systems. The necessity to update IDF curves arise...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Penerbit Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia
2020
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| Online Access: | http://journalarticle.ukm.my/15933/ http://journalarticle.ukm.my/15933/1/3.pdf |
| _version_ | 1848813921866088448 |
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| author | Nasidi, Nuraddeen Mukhtar Aimrun Wayayok, Ahmad Fikri Abdullah, Muhamad Saufi Mohd Kassim, |
| author_facet | Nasidi, Nuraddeen Mukhtar Aimrun Wayayok, Ahmad Fikri Abdullah, Muhamad Saufi Mohd Kassim, |
| author_sort | Nasidi, Nuraddeen Mukhtar |
| building | UKM Institutional Repository |
| collection | Online Access |
| description | Hydrological events are expected to increase in both magnitude and frequency in tropical areas due to climate variability.
The Intensity – Duration – Frequency (IDF) curves are important means of evaluating the efficiency of irrigation and
drainage systems. The necessity to update IDF curves arises from the need to gain better understanding of the
impacts of climate change. This study explores an approach based on weighted Global Circulation Models (GCMs)
and temporal disaggregation method to develop future IDFs under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP)
emission scenarios. The work consists of 20 ensemble GCMs, three RCPs (2.6, 4.5, and 8.5) and two projection periods
(2050s and 2080s). The study compared three statistical distributions and selected Generalized Extreme Value
(GEV) being the best fitting distribution with baseline rainfall series and therefore used for IDF projection. The result
obtained shows that, the highest rainfall intensities of 19.32, 35.07 and 39.12 mm/hr occurred under 2-, 5-, and 20
years return periods, respectively. IDFs from the multi-model ensemble GCMs have shown increasing intensity in the
future for all the return periods. This study indicated that the method could produce promising results which can be
extended to other catchments. |
| first_indexed | 2025-11-15T00:25:53Z |
| format | Article |
| id | oai:generic.eprints.org:15933 |
| institution | Universiti Kebangasaan Malaysia |
| institution_category | Local University |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2025-11-15T00:25:53Z |
| publishDate | 2020 |
| publisher | Penerbit Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia |
| recordtype | eprints |
| repository_type | Digital Repository |
| spelling | oai:generic.eprints.org:159332020-12-10T20:30:18Z http://journalarticle.ukm.my/15933/ Current and future intensity-duration-frequency curves based on weighted ensemble GCMs and temporal disaggregation Nasidi, Nuraddeen Mukhtar Aimrun Wayayok, Ahmad Fikri Abdullah, Muhamad Saufi Mohd Kassim, Hydrological events are expected to increase in both magnitude and frequency in tropical areas due to climate variability. The Intensity – Duration – Frequency (IDF) curves are important means of evaluating the efficiency of irrigation and drainage systems. The necessity to update IDF curves arises from the need to gain better understanding of the impacts of climate change. This study explores an approach based on weighted Global Circulation Models (GCMs) and temporal disaggregation method to develop future IDFs under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) emission scenarios. The work consists of 20 ensemble GCMs, three RCPs (2.6, 4.5, and 8.5) and two projection periods (2050s and 2080s). The study compared three statistical distributions and selected Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) being the best fitting distribution with baseline rainfall series and therefore used for IDF projection. The result obtained shows that, the highest rainfall intensities of 19.32, 35.07 and 39.12 mm/hr occurred under 2-, 5-, and 20 years return periods, respectively. IDFs from the multi-model ensemble GCMs have shown increasing intensity in the future for all the return periods. This study indicated that the method could produce promising results which can be extended to other catchments. Penerbit Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia 2020-10 Article PeerReviewed application/pdf en http://journalarticle.ukm.my/15933/1/3.pdf Nasidi, Nuraddeen Mukhtar and Aimrun Wayayok, and Ahmad Fikri Abdullah, and Muhamad Saufi Mohd Kassim, (2020) Current and future intensity-duration-frequency curves based on weighted ensemble GCMs and temporal disaggregation. Sains Malaysiana, 49 (10). pp. 2359-2371. ISSN 0126-6039 http://www.ukm.my/jsm/malay_journals/jilid49bil10_2020/KandunganJilid49Bil10_2020.html |
| spellingShingle | Nasidi, Nuraddeen Mukhtar Aimrun Wayayok, Ahmad Fikri Abdullah, Muhamad Saufi Mohd Kassim, Current and future intensity-duration-frequency curves based on weighted ensemble GCMs and temporal disaggregation |
| title | Current and future intensity-duration-frequency curves based on weighted ensemble GCMs and temporal disaggregation |
| title_full | Current and future intensity-duration-frequency curves based on weighted ensemble GCMs and temporal disaggregation |
| title_fullStr | Current and future intensity-duration-frequency curves based on weighted ensemble GCMs and temporal disaggregation |
| title_full_unstemmed | Current and future intensity-duration-frequency curves based on weighted ensemble GCMs and temporal disaggregation |
| title_short | Current and future intensity-duration-frequency curves based on weighted ensemble GCMs and temporal disaggregation |
| title_sort | current and future intensity-duration-frequency curves based on weighted ensemble gcms and temporal disaggregation |
| url | http://journalarticle.ukm.my/15933/ http://journalarticle.ukm.my/15933/ http://journalarticle.ukm.my/15933/1/3.pdf |