Determining method for dengue epidemic threshold in Negeri Sembilan, Malaysia
Introduction Dengue fever is an arthropod-borne viral disease that has become endemic in most tropical countries. In 2014, Malaysia reported 108 698 cases of dengue fever with 215 deaths which increased tremendously compared to 49 335 cases with 112 deaths in 2008 and 30 110 cases with 69 deaths in...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Penerbit Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia
2020
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| Online Access: | http://journalarticle.ukm.my/15317/ http://journalarticle.ukm.my/15317/1/266-Article%20Text-1503-1-10-20200911.pdf |
| _version_ | 1848813770131898368 |
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| author | Lokman Rejali, Shamsul Azhar Shah, Norzaher Ismail, Syafiq Taib, Siti Nor Mat, Mohd Rohaizat Hassan, Nazarudin Safian, |
| author_facet | Lokman Rejali, Shamsul Azhar Shah, Norzaher Ismail, Syafiq Taib, Siti Nor Mat, Mohd Rohaizat Hassan, Nazarudin Safian, |
| author_sort | Lokman Rejali, |
| building | UKM Institutional Repository |
| collection | Online Access |
| description | Introduction
Dengue fever is an arthropod-borne viral disease that has become endemic in most tropical countries. In 2014, Malaysia reported 108 698 cases of dengue fever with 215 deaths which increased tremendously compared to 49 335 cases with 112 deaths in 2008 and 30 110 cases with 69 deaths in 2009. This study aimed to identify the best method in determining dengue outbreak threshold for Negeri Sembilan as it can help to send uniform messages to inform the general public and make the outbreak analysis comparable within and between countries.
Methods
Using retrospective Negeri Sembilan country dataset from 1st epid week of 2011 till the 52nd epid week of 2016. The data were split into two periods: 1) a 3-year historic period (2011–2013), used to calibrate and parameterise the model, and a 1-year evaluation period (2014); 2) a 2-year historic period (2014–2016), used to calibrate and parameterise the model, and a 1-year evaluation period (2016), used to test the model. E-dengue is a registration system for confirmed dengue cases dengue by Ministry of Health. Data included were details of cases, district locality, records on the outbreak and epidemiological week (Sunday to Saturday) captured using the Excel spreadsheet. Analysis method included endemic channel method, moving average or deviation bar chart and recent mean.
Results
Seremban as big district and facing with heavy dengue cases, all three methods (endemic curve, current mean and moving mean) showed promising results. Meanwhile comparing with small district of Port Dickson and Tampin with fewer dengue cases and outbreak recorded, the suitable method is by using endemic channel for epidemic threshold.
Conclusions
Simpler methods such as the endemic channel, recent mean and moving mean may be more appropriate in urban district. Whereas in rural or district with minimal dengue cases, Endemic Channel would be the most suitable method for epidemic threshold. However, both methods require a consistent updated graph threshold as time progress. |
| first_indexed | 2025-11-15T00:23:28Z |
| format | Article |
| id | oai:generic.eprints.org:15317 |
| institution | Universiti Kebangasaan Malaysia |
| institution_category | Local University |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2025-11-15T00:23:28Z |
| publishDate | 2020 |
| publisher | Penerbit Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia |
| recordtype | eprints |
| repository_type | Digital Repository |
| spelling | oai:generic.eprints.org:153172020-10-02T08:48:59Z http://journalarticle.ukm.my/15317/ Determining method for dengue epidemic threshold in Negeri Sembilan, Malaysia Lokman Rejali, Shamsul Azhar Shah, Norzaher Ismail, Syafiq Taib, Siti Nor Mat, Mohd Rohaizat Hassan, Nazarudin Safian, Introduction Dengue fever is an arthropod-borne viral disease that has become endemic in most tropical countries. In 2014, Malaysia reported 108 698 cases of dengue fever with 215 deaths which increased tremendously compared to 49 335 cases with 112 deaths in 2008 and 30 110 cases with 69 deaths in 2009. This study aimed to identify the best method in determining dengue outbreak threshold for Negeri Sembilan as it can help to send uniform messages to inform the general public and make the outbreak analysis comparable within and between countries. Methods Using retrospective Negeri Sembilan country dataset from 1st epid week of 2011 till the 52nd epid week of 2016. The data were split into two periods: 1) a 3-year historic period (2011–2013), used to calibrate and parameterise the model, and a 1-year evaluation period (2014); 2) a 2-year historic period (2014–2016), used to calibrate and parameterise the model, and a 1-year evaluation period (2016), used to test the model. E-dengue is a registration system for confirmed dengue cases dengue by Ministry of Health. Data included were details of cases, district locality, records on the outbreak and epidemiological week (Sunday to Saturday) captured using the Excel spreadsheet. Analysis method included endemic channel method, moving average or deviation bar chart and recent mean. Results Seremban as big district and facing with heavy dengue cases, all three methods (endemic curve, current mean and moving mean) showed promising results. Meanwhile comparing with small district of Port Dickson and Tampin with fewer dengue cases and outbreak recorded, the suitable method is by using endemic channel for epidemic threshold. Conclusions Simpler methods such as the endemic channel, recent mean and moving mean may be more appropriate in urban district. Whereas in rural or district with minimal dengue cases, Endemic Channel would be the most suitable method for epidemic threshold. However, both methods require a consistent updated graph threshold as time progress. Penerbit Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia 2020 Article PeerReviewed application/pdf en http://journalarticle.ukm.my/15317/1/266-Article%20Text-1503-1-10-20200911.pdf Lokman Rejali, and Shamsul Azhar Shah, and Norzaher Ismail, and Syafiq Taib, and Siti Nor Mat, and Mohd Rohaizat Hassan, and Nazarudin Safian, (2020) Determining method for dengue epidemic threshold in Negeri Sembilan, Malaysia. International Journal of Public Health Research, 10 (2). pp. 1228-1241. ISSN 2232-0245 http://spaj.ukm.my/ijphr/index.php/ijphr/issue/view/27 |
| spellingShingle | Lokman Rejali, Shamsul Azhar Shah, Norzaher Ismail, Syafiq Taib, Siti Nor Mat, Mohd Rohaizat Hassan, Nazarudin Safian, Determining method for dengue epidemic threshold in Negeri Sembilan, Malaysia |
| title | Determining method for dengue epidemic threshold in Negeri Sembilan, Malaysia |
| title_full | Determining method for dengue epidemic threshold in Negeri Sembilan, Malaysia |
| title_fullStr | Determining method for dengue epidemic threshold in Negeri Sembilan, Malaysia |
| title_full_unstemmed | Determining method for dengue epidemic threshold in Negeri Sembilan, Malaysia |
| title_short | Determining method for dengue epidemic threshold in Negeri Sembilan, Malaysia |
| title_sort | determining method for dengue epidemic threshold in negeri sembilan, malaysia |
| url | http://journalarticle.ukm.my/15317/ http://journalarticle.ukm.my/15317/ http://journalarticle.ukm.my/15317/1/266-Article%20Text-1503-1-10-20200911.pdf |