The meta-Phillips Curve: modelling U.S. inflation in the presence of regime change
A novel approach to modelling inflation dynamics is presented based on a set of Hybrid New-Keynesian Phillips Curves, distinguished by the regime duration and measures of real marginal cost, and combined into a meta-Phillips Curve using model averaging techniques. The analysis of US data over 1950q1...
| Main Author: | |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Published: |
Elsevier
2018
|
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://eprints.nottingham.ac.uk/52837/ |
| _version_ | 1848798821704794112 |
|---|---|
| author | Aristidou, Chrystalleni |
| author_facet | Aristidou, Chrystalleni |
| author_sort | Aristidou, Chrystalleni |
| building | Nottingham Research Data Repository |
| collection | Online Access |
| description | A novel approach to modelling inflation dynamics is presented based on a set of Hybrid New-Keynesian Phillips Curves, distinguished by the regime duration and measures of real marginal cost, and combined into a meta-Phillips Curve using model averaging techniques. The analysis of US data over 1950q1 - 2016q1 shows that, while the importance of expectations of future inflation varies through time depending on the monetary policy regime and economic environment, future expectations make a more substantial contribution to current inflation than past inflation, and that the labour share is superior to the output gap as a measure of cyclical pressures on prices. |
| first_indexed | 2025-11-14T20:25:52Z |
| format | Article |
| id | nottingham-52837 |
| institution | University of Nottingham Malaysia Campus |
| institution_category | Local University |
| last_indexed | 2025-11-14T20:25:52Z |
| publishDate | 2018 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| recordtype | eprints |
| repository_type | Digital Repository |
| spelling | nottingham-528372020-05-04T19:45:20Z https://eprints.nottingham.ac.uk/52837/ The meta-Phillips Curve: modelling U.S. inflation in the presence of regime change Aristidou, Chrystalleni A novel approach to modelling inflation dynamics is presented based on a set of Hybrid New-Keynesian Phillips Curves, distinguished by the regime duration and measures of real marginal cost, and combined into a meta-Phillips Curve using model averaging techniques. The analysis of US data over 1950q1 - 2016q1 shows that, while the importance of expectations of future inflation varies through time depending on the monetary policy regime and economic environment, future expectations make a more substantial contribution to current inflation than past inflation, and that the labour share is superior to the output gap as a measure of cyclical pressures on prices. Elsevier 2018-09-30 Article PeerReviewed Aristidou, Chrystalleni (2018) The meta-Phillips Curve: modelling U.S. inflation in the presence of regime change. Journal of Macroeconomics, 57 . pp. 367-379. ISSN 0164-0704 Inflation; Hybrid New Keynesian Phillips Curve; Model averaging; Structural breaks https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0164070418300041?via%3Dihub doi:10.1016/j.jmacro.2018.07.002 doi:10.1016/j.jmacro.2018.07.002 |
| spellingShingle | Inflation; Hybrid New Keynesian Phillips Curve; Model averaging; Structural breaks Aristidou, Chrystalleni The meta-Phillips Curve: modelling U.S. inflation in the presence of regime change |
| title | The meta-Phillips Curve: modelling U.S. inflation in the presence of regime change |
| title_full | The meta-Phillips Curve: modelling U.S. inflation in the presence of regime change |
| title_fullStr | The meta-Phillips Curve: modelling U.S. inflation in the presence of regime change |
| title_full_unstemmed | The meta-Phillips Curve: modelling U.S. inflation in the presence of regime change |
| title_short | The meta-Phillips Curve: modelling U.S. inflation in the presence of regime change |
| title_sort | meta-phillips curve: modelling u.s. inflation in the presence of regime change |
| topic | Inflation; Hybrid New Keynesian Phillips Curve; Model averaging; Structural breaks |
| url | https://eprints.nottingham.ac.uk/52837/ https://eprints.nottingham.ac.uk/52837/ https://eprints.nottingham.ac.uk/52837/ |