How accurate are professional forecasts in Asia? Evidence from ten countries
This paper assesses the performances of professional GDP growth and inflation forecasts for ten Asian economies for the period 1995–2012. We evaluate the accuracy of the forecasts, and test for unbiasedness and efficiency. Our results show that (i) forecast errors are large for most of the countries...
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| Format: | Article |
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Elsevier
2016
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| Online Access: | https://eprints.nottingham.ac.uk/52673/ |
| _version_ | 1848798782903287808 |
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| author | Chen, Qiwei Costantini, Mauro Deschamps, Bruno |
| author_facet | Chen, Qiwei Costantini, Mauro Deschamps, Bruno |
| author_sort | Chen, Qiwei |
| building | Nottingham Research Data Repository |
| collection | Online Access |
| description | This paper assesses the performances of professional GDP growth and inflation forecasts for ten Asian economies for the period 1995–2012. We evaluate the accuracy of the forecasts, and test for unbiasedness and efficiency. Our results show that (i) forecast errors are large for most of the countries, but there are big differences between countries; (ii) forecasts improve slowly as the forecast horizon shortens, which helps to explain the magnitudes of the forecast errors; (iii) GDP growth forecasts underreact to economic news but inflation forecasts are mostly efficient; (iv) the sizes of forecast biases vary widely between countries, with a tendency for inflation to be overestimated; and (v) forecasts have value in predicting the direction of change. |
| first_indexed | 2025-11-14T20:25:15Z |
| format | Article |
| id | nottingham-52673 |
| institution | University of Nottingham Malaysia Campus |
| institution_category | Local University |
| last_indexed | 2025-11-14T20:25:15Z |
| publishDate | 2016 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| recordtype | eprints |
| repository_type | Digital Repository |
| spelling | nottingham-526732020-05-04T17:37:00Z https://eprints.nottingham.ac.uk/52673/ How accurate are professional forecasts in Asia? Evidence from ten countries Chen, Qiwei Costantini, Mauro Deschamps, Bruno This paper assesses the performances of professional GDP growth and inflation forecasts for ten Asian economies for the period 1995–2012. We evaluate the accuracy of the forecasts, and test for unbiasedness and efficiency. Our results show that (i) forecast errors are large for most of the countries, but there are big differences between countries; (ii) forecasts improve slowly as the forecast horizon shortens, which helps to explain the magnitudes of the forecast errors; (iii) GDP growth forecasts underreact to economic news but inflation forecasts are mostly efficient; (iv) the sizes of forecast biases vary widely between countries, with a tendency for inflation to be overestimated; and (v) forecasts have value in predicting the direction of change. Elsevier 2016-02-15 Article PeerReviewed Chen, Qiwei, Costantini, Mauro and Deschamps, Bruno (2016) How accurate are professional forecasts in Asia? Evidence from ten countries. International Journal of Forecasting, 32 (1). pp. 154-167. ISSN 0169-2070 Professional forecasts; Forecast efficiency; Forecast bias; Asia https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0169207015000886?via%3Dihub doi:10.1016/j.ijforecast.2015.05.004 doi:10.1016/j.ijforecast.2015.05.004 |
| spellingShingle | Professional forecasts; Forecast efficiency; Forecast bias; Asia Chen, Qiwei Costantini, Mauro Deschamps, Bruno How accurate are professional forecasts in Asia? Evidence from ten countries |
| title | How accurate are professional forecasts in Asia? Evidence from ten countries |
| title_full | How accurate are professional forecasts in Asia? Evidence from ten countries |
| title_fullStr | How accurate are professional forecasts in Asia? Evidence from ten countries |
| title_full_unstemmed | How accurate are professional forecasts in Asia? Evidence from ten countries |
| title_short | How accurate are professional forecasts in Asia? Evidence from ten countries |
| title_sort | how accurate are professional forecasts in asia? evidence from ten countries |
| topic | Professional forecasts; Forecast efficiency; Forecast bias; Asia |
| url | https://eprints.nottingham.ac.uk/52673/ https://eprints.nottingham.ac.uk/52673/ https://eprints.nottingham.ac.uk/52673/ |