A Bayesian assessment of an approximate model for unconfined water flow in sloping layered porous media
The prediction of water table height in unconfined layered porous media is a difficult modelling problem that typically requires numerical simulation. This paper proposes an analytical model to approximate the exact solution based on a steady-state Dupuit–Forchheimer analysis. The key contribution i...
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| Format: | Article |
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Springer
2018
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| Online Access: | https://eprints.nottingham.ac.uk/52480/ |
| _version_ | 1848798735560081408 |
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| author | Chiachío, Juan Chiachío, Manuel Sankararaman, Shankar Prescott, Darren |
| author_facet | Chiachío, Juan Chiachío, Manuel Sankararaman, Shankar Prescott, Darren |
| author_sort | Chiachío, Juan |
| building | Nottingham Research Data Repository |
| collection | Online Access |
| description | The prediction of water table height in unconfined layered porous media is a difficult modelling problem that typically requires numerical simulation. This paper proposes an analytical model to approximate the exact solution based on a steady-state Dupuit–Forchheimer analysis. The key contribution in relation to a similar model in the literature relies in the ability of the proposed model to consider more than two layers with different thicknesses and slopes, so that the existing model becomes a special case of the proposed model herein. In addition, a model assessment methodology based on the Bayesian inverse problem is proposed to efficiently identify the values of the physical parameters for which the proposed model is accurate when compared against a reference model given by MODFLOW-NWT, the open-source finite-difference code by the U.S. Geological Survey. Based on numerical results for a representative case study, the ratio of vertical recharge rate to hydraulic conductivity emerges as a key parameter in terms of model accuracy so that, when appropriately bounded, both the proposed model and MODFLOW-NWT provide almost identical results. |
| first_indexed | 2025-11-14T20:24:30Z |
| format | Article |
| id | nottingham-52480 |
| institution | University of Nottingham Malaysia Campus |
| institution_category | Local University |
| last_indexed | 2025-11-14T20:24:30Z |
| publishDate | 2018 |
| publisher | Springer |
| recordtype | eprints |
| repository_type | Digital Repository |
| spelling | nottingham-524802020-05-04T19:39:53Z https://eprints.nottingham.ac.uk/52480/ A Bayesian assessment of an approximate model for unconfined water flow in sloping layered porous media Chiachío, Juan Chiachío, Manuel Sankararaman, Shankar Prescott, Darren The prediction of water table height in unconfined layered porous media is a difficult modelling problem that typically requires numerical simulation. This paper proposes an analytical model to approximate the exact solution based on a steady-state Dupuit–Forchheimer analysis. The key contribution in relation to a similar model in the literature relies in the ability of the proposed model to consider more than two layers with different thicknesses and slopes, so that the existing model becomes a special case of the proposed model herein. In addition, a model assessment methodology based on the Bayesian inverse problem is proposed to efficiently identify the values of the physical parameters for which the proposed model is accurate when compared against a reference model given by MODFLOW-NWT, the open-source finite-difference code by the U.S. Geological Survey. Based on numerical results for a representative case study, the ratio of vertical recharge rate to hydraulic conductivity emerges as a key parameter in terms of model accuracy so that, when appropriately bounded, both the proposed model and MODFLOW-NWT provide almost identical results. Springer 2018-06-09 Article PeerReviewed Chiachío, Juan, Chiachío, Manuel, Sankararaman, Shankar and Prescott, Darren (2018) A Bayesian assessment of an approximate model for unconfined water flow in sloping layered porous media. Transport in Porous Media . ISSN 1573-1634 Dupuit–Forchheimer analysis; Layered porous media; Bayesian hypothesis testing; Railway track drainage https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs11242-018-1094-2 doi:10.1007/s11242-018-1094-2 doi:10.1007/s11242-018-1094-2 |
| spellingShingle | Dupuit–Forchheimer analysis; Layered porous media; Bayesian hypothesis testing; Railway track drainage Chiachío, Juan Chiachío, Manuel Sankararaman, Shankar Prescott, Darren A Bayesian assessment of an approximate model for unconfined water flow in sloping layered porous media |
| title | A Bayesian assessment of an approximate model for unconfined water flow in sloping layered porous media |
| title_full | A Bayesian assessment of an approximate model for unconfined water flow in sloping layered porous media |
| title_fullStr | A Bayesian assessment of an approximate model for unconfined water flow in sloping layered porous media |
| title_full_unstemmed | A Bayesian assessment of an approximate model for unconfined water flow in sloping layered porous media |
| title_short | A Bayesian assessment of an approximate model for unconfined water flow in sloping layered porous media |
| title_sort | bayesian assessment of an approximate model for unconfined water flow in sloping layered porous media |
| topic | Dupuit–Forchheimer analysis; Layered porous media; Bayesian hypothesis testing; Railway track drainage |
| url | https://eprints.nottingham.ac.uk/52480/ https://eprints.nottingham.ac.uk/52480/ https://eprints.nottingham.ac.uk/52480/ |