Crude oil price: Demand, supply, economic activity, economic policy uncertainty and wars: from the perspective of structural equation modelling (SEM)

We studied the relationship between the change in the price of oil and some of its determinants, using a structural equation model. The demand for oil is confirmed to be inelastic to the change in oil price during our sampling period. Economic activity is found to be the most significant factor in e...

Full description

Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: Wang, Qingfeng, Sun, Xu
Format: Article
Published: Elsevier 2017
Subjects:
Online Access:https://eprints.nottingham.ac.uk/51999/
_version_ 1848798623335186432
author Wang, Qingfeng
Sun, Xu
author_facet Wang, Qingfeng
Sun, Xu
author_sort Wang, Qingfeng
building Nottingham Research Data Repository
collection Online Access
description We studied the relationship between the change in the price of oil and some of its determinants, using a structural equation model. The demand for oil is confirmed to be inelastic to the change in oil price during our sampling period. Economic activity is found to be the most significant factor in explaining the dynamics of oil price. Wars and political tension, among the largest oil producers and their neighbouring countries, can drive the crude oil price sharply higher, but no significant direct effect was confirmed by the SEM. The significant effects of wars and political tension on the price of oil lies in their ability to disrupt oil supplies.
first_indexed 2025-11-14T20:22:43Z
format Article
id nottingham-51999
institution University of Nottingham Malaysia Campus
institution_category Local University
last_indexed 2025-11-14T20:22:43Z
publishDate 2017
publisher Elsevier
recordtype eprints
repository_type Digital Repository
spelling nottingham-519992020-05-04T19:01:06Z https://eprints.nottingham.ac.uk/51999/ Crude oil price: Demand, supply, economic activity, economic policy uncertainty and wars: from the perspective of structural equation modelling (SEM) Wang, Qingfeng Sun, Xu We studied the relationship between the change in the price of oil and some of its determinants, using a structural equation model. The demand for oil is confirmed to be inelastic to the change in oil price during our sampling period. Economic activity is found to be the most significant factor in explaining the dynamics of oil price. Wars and political tension, among the largest oil producers and their neighbouring countries, can drive the crude oil price sharply higher, but no significant direct effect was confirmed by the SEM. The significant effects of wars and political tension on the price of oil lies in their ability to disrupt oil supplies. Elsevier 2017-08-15 Article PeerReviewed Wang, Qingfeng and Sun, Xu (2017) Crude oil price: Demand, supply, economic activity, economic policy uncertainty and wars: from the perspective of structural equation modelling (SEM). Energy, 133 . pp. 483-490. ISSN 0360-5442 Crude oil price; Wars; Economic policy uncertainty; Kilian economic index; Structural equation modelling https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544217309192?via%3Dihub doi:10.1016/j.energy.2017.05.147 doi:10.1016/j.energy.2017.05.147
spellingShingle Crude oil price; Wars; Economic policy uncertainty; Kilian economic index; Structural equation modelling
Wang, Qingfeng
Sun, Xu
Crude oil price: Demand, supply, economic activity, economic policy uncertainty and wars: from the perspective of structural equation modelling (SEM)
title Crude oil price: Demand, supply, economic activity, economic policy uncertainty and wars: from the perspective of structural equation modelling (SEM)
title_full Crude oil price: Demand, supply, economic activity, economic policy uncertainty and wars: from the perspective of structural equation modelling (SEM)
title_fullStr Crude oil price: Demand, supply, economic activity, economic policy uncertainty and wars: from the perspective of structural equation modelling (SEM)
title_full_unstemmed Crude oil price: Demand, supply, economic activity, economic policy uncertainty and wars: from the perspective of structural equation modelling (SEM)
title_short Crude oil price: Demand, supply, economic activity, economic policy uncertainty and wars: from the perspective of structural equation modelling (SEM)
title_sort crude oil price: demand, supply, economic activity, economic policy uncertainty and wars: from the perspective of structural equation modelling (sem)
topic Crude oil price; Wars; Economic policy uncertainty; Kilian economic index; Structural equation modelling
url https://eprints.nottingham.ac.uk/51999/
https://eprints.nottingham.ac.uk/51999/
https://eprints.nottingham.ac.uk/51999/