The FLASH project: improving the tools for flash flood monitoring and prediction across the United States
This study introduces the Flooded Locations and Simulated Hydrographs (FLASH) project. FLASH is the first system to generate a suite of hydrometeorological products at flash flood scale in real-time across the conterminous United States, including rainfall average recurrence intervals, ratios of rai...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
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American Meteorological Society
2017
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| Online Access: | https://eprints.nottingham.ac.uk/51057/ |
| _version_ | 1848798403964698624 |
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| author | Gourley, Jonathan J. Flamig, Zachary L. Vergara, Humberto Kirstetter, Pierre-Emmanuel Clark, Robert A. Argyle, Elizabeth Arthur, Ami Martinaitis, Steven Terti, Galateia Erlingis, Jessica M. Hong, Yang Howard, Kenneth W. |
| author_facet | Gourley, Jonathan J. Flamig, Zachary L. Vergara, Humberto Kirstetter, Pierre-Emmanuel Clark, Robert A. Argyle, Elizabeth Arthur, Ami Martinaitis, Steven Terti, Galateia Erlingis, Jessica M. Hong, Yang Howard, Kenneth W. |
| author_sort | Gourley, Jonathan J. |
| building | Nottingham Research Data Repository |
| collection | Online Access |
| description | This study introduces the Flooded Locations and Simulated Hydrographs (FLASH) project. FLASH is the first system to generate a suite of hydrometeorological products at flash flood scale in real-time across the conterminous United States, including rainfall average recurrence intervals, ratios of rainfall to flash flood guidance, and distributed hydrologic model–based discharge forecasts. The key aspects of the system are 1) precipitation forcing from the National Severe Storms Laboratory (NSSL)’s Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor (MRMS) system, 2) a computationally efficient distributed hydrologic modeling framework with sufficient representation of physical processes for flood prediction, 3) capability to provide forecasts at all grid points covered by radars without the requirement of model calibration, and 4) an open-access development platform, product display, and verification system for testing new ideas in a real-time demonstration environment and for fostering collaborations.
This study assesses the FLASH system’s ability to accurately simulate unit peak discharges over a 7-yr period in 1,643 unregulated gauged basins. The evaluation indicates that FLASH’s unit peak discharges had a linear and rank correlation of 0.64 and 0.79, respectively, and that the timing of the peak discharges has errors less than 2 h. The critical success index with FLASH was 0.38 for flood events that exceeded action stage. FLASH performance is demonstrated and evaluated for case studies, including the 2013 deadly flash flood case in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, and the 2015 event in Houston, Texas—both of which occurred on Memorial Day weekends. |
| first_indexed | 2025-11-14T20:19:14Z |
| format | Article |
| id | nottingham-51057 |
| institution | University of Nottingham Malaysia Campus |
| institution_category | Local University |
| last_indexed | 2025-11-14T20:19:14Z |
| publishDate | 2017 |
| publisher | American Meteorological Society |
| recordtype | eprints |
| repository_type | Digital Repository |
| spelling | nottingham-510572020-05-04T18:36:39Z https://eprints.nottingham.ac.uk/51057/ The FLASH project: improving the tools for flash flood monitoring and prediction across the United States Gourley, Jonathan J. Flamig, Zachary L. Vergara, Humberto Kirstetter, Pierre-Emmanuel Clark, Robert A. Argyle, Elizabeth Arthur, Ami Martinaitis, Steven Terti, Galateia Erlingis, Jessica M. Hong, Yang Howard, Kenneth W. This study introduces the Flooded Locations and Simulated Hydrographs (FLASH) project. FLASH is the first system to generate a suite of hydrometeorological products at flash flood scale in real-time across the conterminous United States, including rainfall average recurrence intervals, ratios of rainfall to flash flood guidance, and distributed hydrologic model–based discharge forecasts. The key aspects of the system are 1) precipitation forcing from the National Severe Storms Laboratory (NSSL)’s Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor (MRMS) system, 2) a computationally efficient distributed hydrologic modeling framework with sufficient representation of physical processes for flood prediction, 3) capability to provide forecasts at all grid points covered by radars without the requirement of model calibration, and 4) an open-access development platform, product display, and verification system for testing new ideas in a real-time demonstration environment and for fostering collaborations. This study assesses the FLASH system’s ability to accurately simulate unit peak discharges over a 7-yr period in 1,643 unregulated gauged basins. The evaluation indicates that FLASH’s unit peak discharges had a linear and rank correlation of 0.64 and 0.79, respectively, and that the timing of the peak discharges has errors less than 2 h. The critical success index with FLASH was 0.38 for flood events that exceeded action stage. FLASH performance is demonstrated and evaluated for case studies, including the 2013 deadly flash flood case in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, and the 2015 event in Houston, Texas—both of which occurred on Memorial Day weekends. American Meteorological Society 2017-03-07 Article PeerReviewed Gourley, Jonathan J., Flamig, Zachary L., Vergara, Humberto, Kirstetter, Pierre-Emmanuel, Clark, Robert A., Argyle, Elizabeth, Arthur, Ami, Martinaitis, Steven, Terti, Galateia, Erlingis, Jessica M., Hong, Yang and Howard, Kenneth W. (2017) The FLASH project: improving the tools for flash flood monitoring and prediction across the United States. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 98 (2). pp. 361-372. ISSN 0003-0007 https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/BAMS-D-15-00247.1 doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-15-00247.1 doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-15-00247.1 |
| spellingShingle | Gourley, Jonathan J. Flamig, Zachary L. Vergara, Humberto Kirstetter, Pierre-Emmanuel Clark, Robert A. Argyle, Elizabeth Arthur, Ami Martinaitis, Steven Terti, Galateia Erlingis, Jessica M. Hong, Yang Howard, Kenneth W. The FLASH project: improving the tools for flash flood monitoring and prediction across the United States |
| title | The FLASH project: improving the tools for flash flood monitoring and prediction across the United States |
| title_full | The FLASH project: improving the tools for flash flood monitoring and prediction across the United States |
| title_fullStr | The FLASH project: improving the tools for flash flood monitoring and prediction across the United States |
| title_full_unstemmed | The FLASH project: improving the tools for flash flood monitoring and prediction across the United States |
| title_short | The FLASH project: improving the tools for flash flood monitoring and prediction across the United States |
| title_sort | flash project: improving the tools for flash flood monitoring and prediction across the united states |
| url | https://eprints.nottingham.ac.uk/51057/ https://eprints.nottingham.ac.uk/51057/ https://eprints.nottingham.ac.uk/51057/ |