A cross-country comparison of Expected Shortfall estimation models

This dissertation aims to find a better-performed model in estimating risk measures for certain countries. The risk measures are estimated under five distributional assumptions (normal, Student-t, skewed Student-t, historical distribution, and generalized pareto) for five financial markets (Nasdaq,...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Author: Du, Cong
Format: Dissertation (University of Nottingham only)
Language:English
Published: 2017
Online Access:https://eprints.nottingham.ac.uk/46082/
Description
Summary:This dissertation aims to find a better-performed model in estimating risk measures for certain countries. The risk measures are estimated under five distributional assumptions (normal, Student-t, skewed Student-t, historical distribution, and generalized pareto) for five financial markets (Nasdaq, FTSE100, SSEC, BVSP, and Nifty50), three estimation windows (250, 500, 1000), and two significance levels (0.05 and 0.01). A two-stage ES backtest and a direct ES test are conducted. The violation ratio comparisons and the backtesting results indicate that student’s t distribution and normal distribution have overall the best and the worst performance. Unconditional models also have its deficiencies in modeling financial markets.