When the pound in people’s pocket matters: how changes to personal financial circumstances affect party choice

In this paper we revisit the often disregarded ‘pocketbook voting’ thesis that suggests that people evaluate governments based on the state of their own finances. Using data from the British Household Panel Survey over the last 20 years, we measure changes in personal financial circumstances and sho...

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Main Authors: Tilley, James, Neundorf, Anja, Hobolt, Sara
Format: Article
Published: Wiley 2018
Subjects:
Online Access:https://eprints.nottingham.ac.uk/43455/
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author Tilley, James
Neundorf, Anja
Hobolt, Sara
author_facet Tilley, James
Neundorf, Anja
Hobolt, Sara
author_sort Tilley, James
building Nottingham Research Data Repository
collection Online Access
description In this paper we revisit the often disregarded ‘pocketbook voting’ thesis that suggests that people evaluate governments based on the state of their own finances. Using data from the British Household Panel Survey over the last 20 years, we measure changes in personal financial circumstances and show that the ‘pocketbook voting’ model works. Crucially, we also argue that the ability to attribute responsibility for these changes to the government matters. People respond much more strongly to changes in their own finances that are linked to government spending, such as welfare transfers, than to similar changes that are less clearly the responsibility of elected officials, such as lower personal earnings. We conclude that pocketbook voting is a real phenomenon, but that more attention should be paid to how people assign credit and blame for changes in their own economic circumstances.
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spelling nottingham-434552020-05-04T19:28:04Z https://eprints.nottingham.ac.uk/43455/ When the pound in people’s pocket matters: how changes to personal financial circumstances affect party choice Tilley, James Neundorf, Anja Hobolt, Sara In this paper we revisit the often disregarded ‘pocketbook voting’ thesis that suggests that people evaluate governments based on the state of their own finances. Using data from the British Household Panel Survey over the last 20 years, we measure changes in personal financial circumstances and show that the ‘pocketbook voting’ model works. Crucially, we also argue that the ability to attribute responsibility for these changes to the government matters. People respond much more strongly to changes in their own finances that are linked to government spending, such as welfare transfers, than to similar changes that are less clearly the responsibility of elected officials, such as lower personal earnings. We conclude that pocketbook voting is a real phenomenon, but that more attention should be paid to how people assign credit and blame for changes in their own economic circumstances. Wiley 2018-01-25 Article PeerReviewed Tilley, James, Neundorf, Anja and Hobolt, Sara (2018) When the pound in people’s pocket matters: how changes to personal financial circumstances affect party choice. Journal of Politics, 80 (2). pp. 555-569. ISSN 0022-3816 Economic voting pocketbook party choice responsibility vote choice http://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/abs/10.1086/694549 doi:10.1086/694549 doi:10.1086/694549
spellingShingle Economic voting
pocketbook
party choice
responsibility
vote choice
Tilley, James
Neundorf, Anja
Hobolt, Sara
When the pound in people’s pocket matters: how changes to personal financial circumstances affect party choice
title When the pound in people’s pocket matters: how changes to personal financial circumstances affect party choice
title_full When the pound in people’s pocket matters: how changes to personal financial circumstances affect party choice
title_fullStr When the pound in people’s pocket matters: how changes to personal financial circumstances affect party choice
title_full_unstemmed When the pound in people’s pocket matters: how changes to personal financial circumstances affect party choice
title_short When the pound in people’s pocket matters: how changes to personal financial circumstances affect party choice
title_sort when the pound in people’s pocket matters: how changes to personal financial circumstances affect party choice
topic Economic voting
pocketbook
party choice
responsibility
vote choice
url https://eprints.nottingham.ac.uk/43455/
https://eprints.nottingham.ac.uk/43455/
https://eprints.nottingham.ac.uk/43455/