The inverse forecast effect
Social behaviour depends crucially on the way events are linked over time, and on how these linkages are perceived. From a given event, people may be able to infer what followed, or what preceded it. However these two tasks are not as similar as they may seem. Two experiments are reported in which p...
| Main Authors: | , |
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| Format: | Article |
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Select Press
1997
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| Online Access: | https://eprints.nottingham.ac.uk/42798/ |
| _version_ | 1848796570600865792 |
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| author | Clarke, David Blake, Holly |
| author_facet | Clarke, David Blake, Holly |
| author_sort | Clarke, David |
| building | Nottingham Research Data Repository |
| collection | Online Access |
| description | Social behaviour depends crucially on the way events are linked over time, and on how these linkages are perceived. From a given event, people may be able to infer what followed, or what preceded it. However these two tasks are not as similar as they may seem. Two experiments are reported in which participants had to infer subsequent events given earlier ones, or else the reverse. Performance was consistently more accurate when working ‘backwards’. We call this the ‘inverse forecast effect’. It raises issues about the strategies people use to predict and understand everyday events, and about just how the future is formed from the past. |
| first_indexed | 2025-11-14T19:50:05Z |
| format | Article |
| id | nottingham-42798 |
| institution | University of Nottingham Malaysia Campus |
| institution_category | Local University |
| last_indexed | 2025-11-14T19:50:05Z |
| publishDate | 1997 |
| publisher | Select Press |
| recordtype | eprints |
| repository_type | Digital Repository |
| spelling | nottingham-427982020-05-04T14:06:57Z https://eprints.nottingham.ac.uk/42798/ The inverse forecast effect Clarke, David Blake, Holly Social behaviour depends crucially on the way events are linked over time, and on how these linkages are perceived. From a given event, people may be able to infer what followed, or what preceded it. However these two tasks are not as similar as they may seem. Two experiments are reported in which participants had to infer subsequent events given earlier ones, or else the reverse. Performance was consistently more accurate when working ‘backwards’. We call this the ‘inverse forecast effect’. It raises issues about the strategies people use to predict and understand everyday events, and about just how the future is formed from the past. Select Press 1997-12-14 Article PeerReviewed Clarke, David and Blake, Holly (1997) The inverse forecast effect. Journal of Social Behaviour and Personality, 12 (4). pp. 999-1018. Prediction Forecast Sequence Judgement Hindsight Scripts |
| spellingShingle | Prediction Forecast Sequence Judgement Hindsight Scripts Clarke, David Blake, Holly The inverse forecast effect |
| title | The inverse forecast effect |
| title_full | The inverse forecast effect |
| title_fullStr | The inverse forecast effect |
| title_full_unstemmed | The inverse forecast effect |
| title_short | The inverse forecast effect |
| title_sort | inverse forecast effect |
| topic | Prediction Forecast Sequence Judgement Hindsight Scripts |
| url | https://eprints.nottingham.ac.uk/42798/ |