The deterministic Kermack-McKendrick model bounds the general stochastic epidemic

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The deterministic Kermack-McKendrick model bounds the general stochastic epidemic

We prove that, for Poisson transmission and recovery processes, the classic Susceptible $\to$ Infected $\to$ Recovered (SIR) epidemic model of Kermack and McKendrick provides, for any given time $t>0$, a strict lower bound on the expected number of suscpetibles and a strict upper bound on the exp...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Authors:	Wilkinson, Robert R., Ball, Frank G., Sharkey, Kieran J.
Format:	Article
Published:	Applied Probability Trust 2016
Subjects:	General stochastic epidemic; deterministic general epidemic; SIR; Kermack-McKendrick; message passing; bound
Online Access:	https://eprints.nottingham.ac.uk/40422/

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