The ecology of wildlife disease surveillance: demographic and prevalence fluctuations undermine surveillance
1. Wildlife disease surveillance is the first line of defence against infectious disease. Fluctuations in host populations and disease prevalence are a known feature of wildlife disease systems. However, the impact of such heterogeneities on the performance of surveillance is currently poorly under...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
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Wiley
2016
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| Online Access: | https://eprints.nottingham.ac.uk/37946/ |
| _version_ | 1848795567198568448 |
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| author | Walton, Laura Marion, Glenn Davidson, Ross S. White, Piran C.L. Smith, Lesley A. Gavier-Widen, Dolores Yon, Lisa Hannant, Duncan Hutchings, Michael R. |
| author_facet | Walton, Laura Marion, Glenn Davidson, Ross S. White, Piran C.L. Smith, Lesley A. Gavier-Widen, Dolores Yon, Lisa Hannant, Duncan Hutchings, Michael R. |
| author_sort | Walton, Laura |
| building | Nottingham Research Data Repository |
| collection | Online Access |
| description | 1. Wildlife disease surveillance is the first line of defence against infectious disease. Fluctuations in host populations and disease prevalence are a known feature of wildlife disease systems. However, the impact of such heterogeneities on the performance of surveillance is currently poorly understood.
2. We present the first systematic exploration of the effects of fluctuations prevalence and host population size on the efficacy of wildlife disease surveillance systems. In this study efficacy is measured in terms of ability to estimate long term prevalence and detect disease risk.
3. Our results suggest that for many wildlife disease systems fluctuations in population size and disease lead to bias in surveillance-based estimates of prevalence and over-confidence in assessments of both the precision of prevalence estimates and the power to detect disease.
4. Neglecting such ecological effects may lead to poorly designed surveillance and ultimately to incorrect assessments of the risks posed by disease in wildlife. This will be most problematic in systems where prevalence fluctuations are large and disease fade-outs occur. Such fluctuations are determined by the interaction of demography and disease dynamics and although particularly likely in highly fluctuating populations typical of fecund short lived hosts, can’t be ruled out in more stable populations of longer lived hosts.
5. Synthesis and Applications: Fluctuations in population size and disease prevalence should be considered in the design and implementation of wildlife disease surveillance and the framework presented here provides a template for conducting suitable power calculations. Ultimately understanding the impact of fluctuations in demographic and epidemiological processes will enable improvements to wildlife disease surveillance systems leading to better characterisation of, and protection against endemic, emerging and re-emerging disease threats. |
| first_indexed | 2025-11-14T19:34:08Z |
| format | Article |
| id | nottingham-37946 |
| institution | University of Nottingham Malaysia Campus |
| institution_category | Local University |
| last_indexed | 2025-11-14T19:34:08Z |
| publishDate | 2016 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| recordtype | eprints |
| repository_type | Digital Repository |
| spelling | nottingham-379462020-05-04T18:14:51Z https://eprints.nottingham.ac.uk/37946/ The ecology of wildlife disease surveillance: demographic and prevalence fluctuations undermine surveillance Walton, Laura Marion, Glenn Davidson, Ross S. White, Piran C.L. Smith, Lesley A. Gavier-Widen, Dolores Yon, Lisa Hannant, Duncan Hutchings, Michael R. 1. Wildlife disease surveillance is the first line of defence against infectious disease. Fluctuations in host populations and disease prevalence are a known feature of wildlife disease systems. However, the impact of such heterogeneities on the performance of surveillance is currently poorly understood. 2. We present the first systematic exploration of the effects of fluctuations prevalence and host population size on the efficacy of wildlife disease surveillance systems. In this study efficacy is measured in terms of ability to estimate long term prevalence and detect disease risk. 3. Our results suggest that for many wildlife disease systems fluctuations in population size and disease lead to bias in surveillance-based estimates of prevalence and over-confidence in assessments of both the precision of prevalence estimates and the power to detect disease. 4. Neglecting such ecological effects may lead to poorly designed surveillance and ultimately to incorrect assessments of the risks posed by disease in wildlife. This will be most problematic in systems where prevalence fluctuations are large and disease fade-outs occur. Such fluctuations are determined by the interaction of demography and disease dynamics and although particularly likely in highly fluctuating populations typical of fecund short lived hosts, can’t be ruled out in more stable populations of longer lived hosts. 5. Synthesis and Applications: Fluctuations in population size and disease prevalence should be considered in the design and implementation of wildlife disease surveillance and the framework presented here provides a template for conducting suitable power calculations. Ultimately understanding the impact of fluctuations in demographic and epidemiological processes will enable improvements to wildlife disease surveillance systems leading to better characterisation of, and protection against endemic, emerging and re-emerging disease threats. Wiley 2016-10-31 Article PeerReviewed Walton, Laura, Marion, Glenn, Davidson, Ross S., White, Piran C.L., Smith, Lesley A., Gavier-Widen, Dolores, Yon, Lisa, Hannant, Duncan and Hutchings, Michael R. (2016) The ecology of wildlife disease surveillance: demographic and prevalence fluctuations undermine surveillance. Journal of Applied Ecology, 53 (5). pp. 1460-1469. ISSN 1365-2664 demographic fluctuations disease surveillance disease transmission models stochastic population models wildlife disease systems wildlife ecology wildlife populations http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/1365-2664.12671/abstract doi:10.1111/1365-2664.12671 doi:10.1111/1365-2664.12671 |
| spellingShingle | demographic fluctuations disease surveillance disease transmission models stochastic population models wildlife disease systems wildlife ecology wildlife populations Walton, Laura Marion, Glenn Davidson, Ross S. White, Piran C.L. Smith, Lesley A. Gavier-Widen, Dolores Yon, Lisa Hannant, Duncan Hutchings, Michael R. The ecology of wildlife disease surveillance: demographic and prevalence fluctuations undermine surveillance |
| title | The ecology of wildlife disease surveillance: demographic and prevalence fluctuations undermine surveillance |
| title_full | The ecology of wildlife disease surveillance: demographic and prevalence fluctuations undermine surveillance |
| title_fullStr | The ecology of wildlife disease surveillance: demographic and prevalence fluctuations undermine surveillance |
| title_full_unstemmed | The ecology of wildlife disease surveillance: demographic and prevalence fluctuations undermine surveillance |
| title_short | The ecology of wildlife disease surveillance: demographic and prevalence fluctuations undermine surveillance |
| title_sort | ecology of wildlife disease surveillance: demographic and prevalence fluctuations undermine surveillance |
| topic | demographic fluctuations disease surveillance disease transmission models stochastic population models wildlife disease systems wildlife ecology wildlife populations |
| url | https://eprints.nottingham.ac.uk/37946/ https://eprints.nottingham.ac.uk/37946/ https://eprints.nottingham.ac.uk/37946/ |