Use of wild bird surveillance, human case data and GIS spatial analysis for predicting spatial distributions of West Nile Virus in Greece
West Nile Virus (WNV) is the causative agent of a vector-borne, zoonotic disease with a worldwide distribution. Recent expansion and introduction of WNV into new areas, including southern Europe, has been associated with severe disease in humans and equids, and has increased concerns regarding the n...
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| Format: | Article |
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Public Library of Science
2014
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| Online Access: | https://eprints.nottingham.ac.uk/37690/ |
| _version_ | 1848795512590827520 |
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| author | Khudyakov, Yury E. Valiakos, George Papaspyropoulos, Konstantinos Giannakopoulos, Alexios Birtsas, Periklis Tsiodras, Sotirios Hutchings, Michael R. Spyrou, Vassiliki Pervanidou, Danai Athanasiou, Labrini V. Papadopoulos, Nikolaos Tsokana, Constantina Baka, Agoritsa Manolakou, Katerina Chatzopoulos, Dimitrios Artois, Marc Yon, Lisa Hannant, Duncan Petrovska, Liljana Hadjichristodoulou, Christos Billinis, Charalambos |
| author_facet | Khudyakov, Yury E. Valiakos, George Papaspyropoulos, Konstantinos Giannakopoulos, Alexios Birtsas, Periklis Tsiodras, Sotirios Hutchings, Michael R. Spyrou, Vassiliki Pervanidou, Danai Athanasiou, Labrini V. Papadopoulos, Nikolaos Tsokana, Constantina Baka, Agoritsa Manolakou, Katerina Chatzopoulos, Dimitrios Artois, Marc Yon, Lisa Hannant, Duncan Petrovska, Liljana Hadjichristodoulou, Christos Billinis, Charalambos |
| author_sort | Khudyakov, Yury E. |
| building | Nottingham Research Data Repository |
| collection | Online Access |
| description | West Nile Virus (WNV) is the causative agent of a vector-borne, zoonotic disease with a worldwide distribution. Recent expansion and introduction of WNV into new areas, including southern Europe, has been associated with severe disease in humans and equids, and has increased concerns regarding the need to prevent and control future WNV outbreaks. Since 2010, 524 confirmed human cases of the disease have been reported in Greece with greater than 10% mortality. Infected mosquitoes, wild birds, equids, and chickens have been detected and associated with human disease. The aim of our study was to establish a monitoring system with wild birds and reported human cases data using Geographical Information System (GIS). Potential distribution of WNV was modelled by combining wild bird serological surveillance data with environmental factors (e.g. elevation, slope, land use, vegetation density, temperature, precipitation indices, and population density). Local factors including areas of low altitude and proximity to water were important predictors of appearance of both human and wild bird cases (Odds Ratio = 1,001 95%CI = 0,723–1,386). Using GIS analysis, the identified risk factors were applied across Greece identifying the northern part of Greece (Macedonia, Thrace) western Greece and a number of Greek islands as being at highest risk of future outbreaks. The results of the analysis were evaluated and confirmed using the 161 reported human cases of the 2012 outbreak predicting correctly (Odds = 130/31 = 4,194 95%CI = 2,841–6,189) and more areas were identified for potential dispersion in the following years. Our approach verified that WNV risk can be modelled in a fast cost-effective way indicating high risk areas where prevention measures should be implemented in order to reduce the disease incidence. |
| first_indexed | 2025-11-14T19:33:16Z |
| format | Article |
| id | nottingham-37690 |
| institution | University of Nottingham Malaysia Campus |
| institution_category | Local University |
| last_indexed | 2025-11-14T19:33:16Z |
| publishDate | 2014 |
| publisher | Public Library of Science |
| recordtype | eprints |
| repository_type | Digital Repository |
| spelling | nottingham-376902020-05-04T16:48:20Z https://eprints.nottingham.ac.uk/37690/ Use of wild bird surveillance, human case data and GIS spatial analysis for predicting spatial distributions of West Nile Virus in Greece Khudyakov, Yury E. Valiakos, George Papaspyropoulos, Konstantinos Giannakopoulos, Alexios Birtsas, Periklis Tsiodras, Sotirios Hutchings, Michael R. Spyrou, Vassiliki Pervanidou, Danai Athanasiou, Labrini V. Papadopoulos, Nikolaos Tsokana, Constantina Baka, Agoritsa Manolakou, Katerina Chatzopoulos, Dimitrios Artois, Marc Yon, Lisa Hannant, Duncan Petrovska, Liljana Hadjichristodoulou, Christos Billinis, Charalambos West Nile Virus (WNV) is the causative agent of a vector-borne, zoonotic disease with a worldwide distribution. Recent expansion and introduction of WNV into new areas, including southern Europe, has been associated with severe disease in humans and equids, and has increased concerns regarding the need to prevent and control future WNV outbreaks. Since 2010, 524 confirmed human cases of the disease have been reported in Greece with greater than 10% mortality. Infected mosquitoes, wild birds, equids, and chickens have been detected and associated with human disease. The aim of our study was to establish a monitoring system with wild birds and reported human cases data using Geographical Information System (GIS). Potential distribution of WNV was modelled by combining wild bird serological surveillance data with environmental factors (e.g. elevation, slope, land use, vegetation density, temperature, precipitation indices, and population density). Local factors including areas of low altitude and proximity to water were important predictors of appearance of both human and wild bird cases (Odds Ratio = 1,001 95%CI = 0,723–1,386). Using GIS analysis, the identified risk factors were applied across Greece identifying the northern part of Greece (Macedonia, Thrace) western Greece and a number of Greek islands as being at highest risk of future outbreaks. The results of the analysis were evaluated and confirmed using the 161 reported human cases of the 2012 outbreak predicting correctly (Odds = 130/31 = 4,194 95%CI = 2,841–6,189) and more areas were identified for potential dispersion in the following years. Our approach verified that WNV risk can be modelled in a fast cost-effective way indicating high risk areas where prevention measures should be implemented in order to reduce the disease incidence. Public Library of Science 2014-05-07 Article PeerReviewed Khudyakov, Yury E., Valiakos, George, Papaspyropoulos, Konstantinos, Giannakopoulos, Alexios, Birtsas, Periklis, Tsiodras, Sotirios, Hutchings, Michael R., Spyrou, Vassiliki, Pervanidou, Danai, Athanasiou, Labrini V., Papadopoulos, Nikolaos, Tsokana, Constantina, Baka, Agoritsa, Manolakou, Katerina, Chatzopoulos, Dimitrios, Artois, Marc, Yon, Lisa, Hannant, Duncan, Petrovska, Liljana, Hadjichristodoulou, Christos and Billinis, Charalambos (2014) Use of wild bird surveillance, human case data and GIS spatial analysis for predicting spatial distributions of West Nile Virus in Greece. PLoS ONE, 9 (5). e96935/1-e96935/8. ISSN 1932-6203 http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0096935 doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0096935 doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0096935 |
| spellingShingle | Khudyakov, Yury E. Valiakos, George Papaspyropoulos, Konstantinos Giannakopoulos, Alexios Birtsas, Periklis Tsiodras, Sotirios Hutchings, Michael R. Spyrou, Vassiliki Pervanidou, Danai Athanasiou, Labrini V. Papadopoulos, Nikolaos Tsokana, Constantina Baka, Agoritsa Manolakou, Katerina Chatzopoulos, Dimitrios Artois, Marc Yon, Lisa Hannant, Duncan Petrovska, Liljana Hadjichristodoulou, Christos Billinis, Charalambos Use of wild bird surveillance, human case data and GIS spatial analysis for predicting spatial distributions of West Nile Virus in Greece |
| title | Use of wild bird surveillance, human case data and GIS spatial analysis for predicting spatial distributions of West Nile Virus in Greece |
| title_full | Use of wild bird surveillance, human case data and GIS spatial analysis for predicting spatial distributions of West Nile Virus in Greece |
| title_fullStr | Use of wild bird surveillance, human case data and GIS spatial analysis for predicting spatial distributions of West Nile Virus in Greece |
| title_full_unstemmed | Use of wild bird surveillance, human case data and GIS spatial analysis for predicting spatial distributions of West Nile Virus in Greece |
| title_short | Use of wild bird surveillance, human case data and GIS spatial analysis for predicting spatial distributions of West Nile Virus in Greece |
| title_sort | use of wild bird surveillance, human case data and gis spatial analysis for predicting spatial distributions of west nile virus in greece |
| url | https://eprints.nottingham.ac.uk/37690/ https://eprints.nottingham.ac.uk/37690/ https://eprints.nottingham.ac.uk/37690/ |