Civil war and U.S. foreign intervention
We study how foreign interventions affect civil war around the world. In an infinitely repeated game we combine a gambling for resurrection mechanism for the influencing country with the canonical bargaining model of war in the influenced country to micro-found sudden shifts in power among the domes...
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| Format: | Article |
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Elsevier
2014
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| Online Access: | https://eprints.nottingham.ac.uk/35637/ |
| _version_ | 1848795126230417408 |
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| author | Albornoz, Facundo Hauk, Esther |
| author_facet | Albornoz, Facundo Hauk, Esther |
| author_sort | Albornoz, Facundo |
| building | Nottingham Research Data Repository |
| collection | Online Access |
| description | We study how foreign interventions affect civil war around the world. In an infinitely repeated game we combine a gambling for resurrection mechanism for the influencing country with the canonical bargaining model of war in the influenced country to micro-found sudden shifts in power among the domestic bargaining partners, which are known to lead to war due to commitment problems. We test two of our model predictions that allow us to identify the influence of foreign intervention on civil war incidence: (i) civil wars around the world are more likely under Republican governments and (ii) the probability of civil wars decreases with the U.S. presidential approval rates. These results withstand several robustness checks and, overall, suggest that foreign influence is a sizable driver of domestic conflict. |
| first_indexed | 2025-11-14T19:27:08Z |
| format | Article |
| id | nottingham-35637 |
| institution | University of Nottingham Malaysia Campus |
| institution_category | Local University |
| last_indexed | 2025-11-14T19:27:08Z |
| publishDate | 2014 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| recordtype | eprints |
| repository_type | Digital Repository |
| spelling | nottingham-356372020-05-04T16:53:11Z https://eprints.nottingham.ac.uk/35637/ Civil war and U.S. foreign intervention Albornoz, Facundo Hauk, Esther We study how foreign interventions affect civil war around the world. In an infinitely repeated game we combine a gambling for resurrection mechanism for the influencing country with the canonical bargaining model of war in the influenced country to micro-found sudden shifts in power among the domestic bargaining partners, which are known to lead to war due to commitment problems. We test two of our model predictions that allow us to identify the influence of foreign intervention on civil war incidence: (i) civil wars around the world are more likely under Republican governments and (ii) the probability of civil wars decreases with the U.S. presidential approval rates. These results withstand several robustness checks and, overall, suggest that foreign influence is a sizable driver of domestic conflict. Elsevier 2014-09-30 Article PeerReviewed Albornoz, Facundo and Hauk, Esther (2014) Civil war and U.S. foreign intervention. Journal of Development Economics, 110 . pp. 64-78. ISSN 0304-3878 Civil war Foreign influence US politics http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304387814000534 doi:10.1016/j.jdeveco.2014.05.002 doi:10.1016/j.jdeveco.2014.05.002 |
| spellingShingle | Civil war Foreign influence US politics Albornoz, Facundo Hauk, Esther Civil war and U.S. foreign intervention |
| title | Civil war and U.S. foreign intervention |
| title_full | Civil war and U.S. foreign intervention |
| title_fullStr | Civil war and U.S. foreign intervention |
| title_full_unstemmed | Civil war and U.S. foreign intervention |
| title_short | Civil war and U.S. foreign intervention |
| title_sort | civil war and u.s. foreign intervention |
| topic | Civil war Foreign influence US politics |
| url | https://eprints.nottingham.ac.uk/35637/ https://eprints.nottingham.ac.uk/35637/ https://eprints.nottingham.ac.uk/35637/ |