Civil war and U.S. foreign intervention

We study how foreign interventions affect civil war around the world. In an infinitely repeated game we combine a gambling for resurrection mechanism for the influencing country with the canonical bargaining model of war in the influenced country to micro-found sudden shifts in power among the domes...

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Main Authors: Albornoz, Facundo, Hauk, Esther
Format: Article
Published: Elsevier 2014
Subjects:
Online Access:https://eprints.nottingham.ac.uk/35637/
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author Albornoz, Facundo
Hauk, Esther
author_facet Albornoz, Facundo
Hauk, Esther
author_sort Albornoz, Facundo
building Nottingham Research Data Repository
collection Online Access
description We study how foreign interventions affect civil war around the world. In an infinitely repeated game we combine a gambling for resurrection mechanism for the influencing country with the canonical bargaining model of war in the influenced country to micro-found sudden shifts in power among the domestic bargaining partners, which are known to lead to war due to commitment problems. We test two of our model predictions that allow us to identify the influence of foreign intervention on civil war incidence: (i) civil wars around the world are more likely under Republican governments and (ii) the probability of civil wars decreases with the U.S. presidential approval rates. These results withstand several robustness checks and, overall, suggest that foreign influence is a sizable driver of domestic conflict.
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spelling nottingham-356372020-05-04T16:53:11Z https://eprints.nottingham.ac.uk/35637/ Civil war and U.S. foreign intervention Albornoz, Facundo Hauk, Esther We study how foreign interventions affect civil war around the world. In an infinitely repeated game we combine a gambling for resurrection mechanism for the influencing country with the canonical bargaining model of war in the influenced country to micro-found sudden shifts in power among the domestic bargaining partners, which are known to lead to war due to commitment problems. We test two of our model predictions that allow us to identify the influence of foreign intervention on civil war incidence: (i) civil wars around the world are more likely under Republican governments and (ii) the probability of civil wars decreases with the U.S. presidential approval rates. These results withstand several robustness checks and, overall, suggest that foreign influence is a sizable driver of domestic conflict. Elsevier 2014-09-30 Article PeerReviewed Albornoz, Facundo and Hauk, Esther (2014) Civil war and U.S. foreign intervention. Journal of Development Economics, 110 . pp. 64-78. ISSN 0304-3878 Civil war Foreign influence US politics http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304387814000534 doi:10.1016/j.jdeveco.2014.05.002 doi:10.1016/j.jdeveco.2014.05.002
spellingShingle Civil war
Foreign influence
US politics
Albornoz, Facundo
Hauk, Esther
Civil war and U.S. foreign intervention
title Civil war and U.S. foreign intervention
title_full Civil war and U.S. foreign intervention
title_fullStr Civil war and U.S. foreign intervention
title_full_unstemmed Civil war and U.S. foreign intervention
title_short Civil war and U.S. foreign intervention
title_sort civil war and u.s. foreign intervention
topic Civil war
Foreign influence
US politics
url https://eprints.nottingham.ac.uk/35637/
https://eprints.nottingham.ac.uk/35637/
https://eprints.nottingham.ac.uk/35637/