The diffusion of cholera in Egypt, 1947: a time-space analysis of one of the largest single outbreaks in the twentieth century
The epidemic of cholera that spread through Egypt in the latter months of 1947 was one of the largest single outbreaks of the disease in the twentieth century. Using a swash–backwash model, this paper examines the geographical wave-like spread and subsequent retreat of the epidemic from an apparent...
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| Format: | Article |
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Elsevier
2016
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| Online Access: | https://eprints.nottingham.ac.uk/35558/ |
| _version_ | 1848795107362340864 |
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| author | Smallman-Raynor, Matthew Cliffe, Andrew |
| author_facet | Smallman-Raynor, Matthew Cliffe, Andrew |
| author_sort | Smallman-Raynor, Matthew |
| building | Nottingham Research Data Repository |
| collection | Online Access |
| description | The epidemic of cholera that spread through Egypt in the latter months of 1947 was one of the largest single outbreaks of the disease in the twentieth century. Using a swash–backwash model, this paper examines the geographical wave-like spread and subsequent retreat of the epidemic from an apparent origin in the settlements and prisoner-of-war camps of the Nile Delta area to reach its maximum geographical extent some six weeks later at Aswan (850 km away). Our results demonstrate the very rapid spatial advance of the epidemic wave through the provinces and governorates of Egypt, with an approximately linear sequence of progression up the Nile. Superimposed on this national pattern are pronounced differences in the rate of epidemic advance in the traditional geographical divisions of Lower and Upper Egypt. Alternative visualisations of the cholera spaces of Egypt, using techniques of multidimensional scaling (MDS) and cluster analysis, underscore the differential patterns of cholera transmission in these areas of the country. The patterns are interpreted in relation to a vigorous control effort that included restrictions on public transport, patient isolation, contact tracing and mass vaccination of the entire population exposed to risk of infection. |
| first_indexed | 2025-11-14T19:26:50Z |
| format | Article |
| id | nottingham-35558 |
| institution | University of Nottingham Malaysia Campus |
| institution_category | Local University |
| last_indexed | 2025-11-14T19:26:50Z |
| publishDate | 2016 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| recordtype | eprints |
| repository_type | Digital Repository |
| spelling | nottingham-355582020-05-04T18:08:36Z https://eprints.nottingham.ac.uk/35558/ The diffusion of cholera in Egypt, 1947: a time-space analysis of one of the largest single outbreaks in the twentieth century Smallman-Raynor, Matthew Cliffe, Andrew The epidemic of cholera that spread through Egypt in the latter months of 1947 was one of the largest single outbreaks of the disease in the twentieth century. Using a swash–backwash model, this paper examines the geographical wave-like spread and subsequent retreat of the epidemic from an apparent origin in the settlements and prisoner-of-war camps of the Nile Delta area to reach its maximum geographical extent some six weeks later at Aswan (850 km away). Our results demonstrate the very rapid spatial advance of the epidemic wave through the provinces and governorates of Egypt, with an approximately linear sequence of progression up the Nile. Superimposed on this national pattern are pronounced differences in the rate of epidemic advance in the traditional geographical divisions of Lower and Upper Egypt. Alternative visualisations of the cholera spaces of Egypt, using techniques of multidimensional scaling (MDS) and cluster analysis, underscore the differential patterns of cholera transmission in these areas of the country. The patterns are interpreted in relation to a vigorous control effort that included restrictions on public transport, patient isolation, contact tracing and mass vaccination of the entire population exposed to risk of infection. Elsevier 2016-10-01 Article PeerReviewed Smallman-Raynor, Matthew and Cliffe, Andrew (2016) The diffusion of cholera in Egypt, 1947: a time-space analysis of one of the largest single outbreaks in the twentieth century. Journal of Historical Geography, 54 . pp. 24-37. ISSN 0305-7488 Cholera; Cluster analysis; Egypt; 1947 epidemic; Spatial wave propagation; Swash–backwash model http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0305748816300718 doi:10.1016/j.jhg.2016.07.010 doi:10.1016/j.jhg.2016.07.010 |
| spellingShingle | Cholera; Cluster analysis; Egypt; 1947 epidemic; Spatial wave propagation; Swash–backwash model Smallman-Raynor, Matthew Cliffe, Andrew The diffusion of cholera in Egypt, 1947: a time-space analysis of one of the largest single outbreaks in the twentieth century |
| title | The diffusion of cholera in Egypt, 1947: a time-space analysis of one of the largest single outbreaks in the twentieth century |
| title_full | The diffusion of cholera in Egypt, 1947: a time-space analysis of one of the largest single outbreaks in the twentieth century |
| title_fullStr | The diffusion of cholera in Egypt, 1947: a time-space analysis of one of the largest single outbreaks in the twentieth century |
| title_full_unstemmed | The diffusion of cholera in Egypt, 1947: a time-space analysis of one of the largest single outbreaks in the twentieth century |
| title_short | The diffusion of cholera in Egypt, 1947: a time-space analysis of one of the largest single outbreaks in the twentieth century |
| title_sort | diffusion of cholera in egypt, 1947: a time-space analysis of one of the largest single outbreaks in the twentieth century |
| topic | Cholera; Cluster analysis; Egypt; 1947 epidemic; Spatial wave propagation; Swash–backwash model |
| url | https://eprints.nottingham.ac.uk/35558/ https://eprints.nottingham.ac.uk/35558/ https://eprints.nottingham.ac.uk/35558/ |