A comparison of changes in river runoff from multiple global and catchment-scale hydrological models under global warming scenarios of 1°C, 2°C and 3°C
We present one of the first climate change impact assessments on river runoff that utilises an ensemble of global hydrological models (Glob-HMs) and an ensemble of catchment-scale hydrological models (Cat-HMs), across multiple catchments: the upper Amazon, Darling, Ganges, Lena, upper Mississippi, u...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
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Springer Verlag
2016
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| Online Access: | https://eprints.nottingham.ac.uk/35544/ |
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| author | Gosling, Simon Zaherpour, Jamal Mount, Nick J. Hattermann, Fred Dankers, Rutger Arheimer, Berit Breuer, Lutz Ding, Jie Haddeland, Ingjerd Kumar, Rohini Kundu, Dipangkar Liu, Junguo van Griensven, Ann Veldkamp, Ted Vetter, Tobias Wang, Xiaoyan Zhang, Xinxin |
| author_facet | Gosling, Simon Zaherpour, Jamal Mount, Nick J. Hattermann, Fred Dankers, Rutger Arheimer, Berit Breuer, Lutz Ding, Jie Haddeland, Ingjerd Kumar, Rohini Kundu, Dipangkar Liu, Junguo van Griensven, Ann Veldkamp, Ted Vetter, Tobias Wang, Xiaoyan Zhang, Xinxin |
| author_sort | Gosling, Simon |
| building | Nottingham Research Data Repository |
| collection | Online Access |
| description | We present one of the first climate change impact assessments on river runoff that utilises an ensemble of global hydrological models (Glob-HMs) and an ensemble of catchment-scale hydrological models (Cat-HMs), across multiple catchments: the upper Amazon, Darling, Ganges, Lena, upper Mississippi, upper Niger, Rhine and Tagus. Relative changes in simulated mean annual runoff (MAR) and four indicators of high and low extreme flows are compared between the two ensembles. The ensemble median values of changes in runoff with three different scenarios of global-mean warming (1°C, 2°C and 3°C above pre-industrial levels) are generally similar between the two ensembles, although the ensemble spread is often larger for the Glob-HM ensemble. In addition the ensemble spread is normally larger than the difference between the two ensemble medians. Whilst we find compelling evidence for projected runoff changes for the Rhine (decrease), Tagus (decrease) and Lena (increase) with global warming, the sign and magnitude of change for the other catchments is unclear. Our model results highlight that for these three catchments in particular, global climate change mitigation, which limits global-mean temperature rise to below 2°C above pre-industrial levels, could avoid some of the hydrological hazards that could be seen with higher magnitudes of global warming. |
| first_indexed | 2025-11-14T19:26:46Z |
| format | Article |
| id | nottingham-35544 |
| institution | University of Nottingham Malaysia Campus |
| institution_category | Local University |
| last_indexed | 2025-11-14T19:26:46Z |
| publishDate | 2016 |
| publisher | Springer Verlag |
| recordtype | eprints |
| repository_type | Digital Repository |
| spelling | nottingham-355442020-05-04T18:21:51Z https://eprints.nottingham.ac.uk/35544/ A comparison of changes in river runoff from multiple global and catchment-scale hydrological models under global warming scenarios of 1°C, 2°C and 3°C Gosling, Simon Zaherpour, Jamal Mount, Nick J. Hattermann, Fred Dankers, Rutger Arheimer, Berit Breuer, Lutz Ding, Jie Haddeland, Ingjerd Kumar, Rohini Kundu, Dipangkar Liu, Junguo van Griensven, Ann Veldkamp, Ted Vetter, Tobias Wang, Xiaoyan Zhang, Xinxin We present one of the first climate change impact assessments on river runoff that utilises an ensemble of global hydrological models (Glob-HMs) and an ensemble of catchment-scale hydrological models (Cat-HMs), across multiple catchments: the upper Amazon, Darling, Ganges, Lena, upper Mississippi, upper Niger, Rhine and Tagus. Relative changes in simulated mean annual runoff (MAR) and four indicators of high and low extreme flows are compared between the two ensembles. The ensemble median values of changes in runoff with three different scenarios of global-mean warming (1°C, 2°C and 3°C above pre-industrial levels) are generally similar between the two ensembles, although the ensemble spread is often larger for the Glob-HM ensemble. In addition the ensemble spread is normally larger than the difference between the two ensemble medians. Whilst we find compelling evidence for projected runoff changes for the Rhine (decrease), Tagus (decrease) and Lena (increase) with global warming, the sign and magnitude of change for the other catchments is unclear. Our model results highlight that for these three catchments in particular, global climate change mitigation, which limits global-mean temperature rise to below 2°C above pre-industrial levels, could avoid some of the hydrological hazards that could be seen with higher magnitudes of global warming. Springer Verlag 2016-11-09 Article PeerReviewed Gosling, Simon, Zaherpour, Jamal, Mount, Nick J., Hattermann, Fred, Dankers, Rutger, Arheimer, Berit, Breuer, Lutz, Ding, Jie, Haddeland, Ingjerd, Kumar, Rohini, Kundu, Dipangkar, Liu, Junguo, van Griensven, Ann, Veldkamp, Ted, Vetter, Tobias, Wang, Xiaoyan and Zhang, Xinxin (2016) A comparison of changes in river runoff from multiple global and catchment-scale hydrological models under global warming scenarios of 1°C, 2°C and 3°C. Climatic Change . ISSN 1573-1480 Global warming; hydrology; UNFCCC 2°C target; climate change; extremes; runoff http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs10584-016-1773-3 doi:10.1007/s10584-016-1773-3 doi:10.1007/s10584-016-1773-3 |
| spellingShingle | Global warming; hydrology; UNFCCC 2°C target; climate change; extremes; runoff Gosling, Simon Zaherpour, Jamal Mount, Nick J. Hattermann, Fred Dankers, Rutger Arheimer, Berit Breuer, Lutz Ding, Jie Haddeland, Ingjerd Kumar, Rohini Kundu, Dipangkar Liu, Junguo van Griensven, Ann Veldkamp, Ted Vetter, Tobias Wang, Xiaoyan Zhang, Xinxin A comparison of changes in river runoff from multiple global and catchment-scale hydrological models under global warming scenarios of 1°C, 2°C and 3°C |
| title | A comparison of changes in river runoff from multiple global and catchment-scale hydrological models under global warming scenarios of 1°C, 2°C and 3°C |
| title_full | A comparison of changes in river runoff from multiple global and catchment-scale hydrological models under global warming scenarios of 1°C, 2°C and 3°C |
| title_fullStr | A comparison of changes in river runoff from multiple global and catchment-scale hydrological models under global warming scenarios of 1°C, 2°C and 3°C |
| title_full_unstemmed | A comparison of changes in river runoff from multiple global and catchment-scale hydrological models under global warming scenarios of 1°C, 2°C and 3°C |
| title_short | A comparison of changes in river runoff from multiple global and catchment-scale hydrological models under global warming scenarios of 1°C, 2°C and 3°C |
| title_sort | comparison of changes in river runoff from multiple global and catchment-scale hydrological models under global warming scenarios of 1°c, 2°c and 3°c |
| topic | Global warming; hydrology; UNFCCC 2°C target; climate change; extremes; runoff |
| url | https://eprints.nottingham.ac.uk/35544/ https://eprints.nottingham.ac.uk/35544/ https://eprints.nottingham.ac.uk/35544/ |