Is speed of healing a good predictor of eventual healing of pyoderma gangrenosum?

Background: Pyoderma gangrenosum is a rare inflammatory skin condition. The STOPGAP studies compared treatments for pyoderma gangrenosum using a primary outcome of healing speed at 6 weeks. Objective: Using data from both studies we assessed the predictive value of three early predictors for healin...

Full description

Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: Wilkes, Sally R., Williams, Hywel C., Ormerod, Anthony D., Craig, Fiona E., Greenlaw, Nicola, Norrie, John, Mitchell, Eleanor, Mason, James M., Thomas, Kim S.
Format: Article
Published: Elsevier 2016
Subjects:
Online Access:https://eprints.nottingham.ac.uk/35520/
_version_ 1848795097439666176
author Wilkes, Sally R.
Williams, Hywel C.
Ormerod, Anthony D.
Craig, Fiona E.
Greenlaw, Nicola
Norrie, John
Mitchell, Eleanor
Mason, James M.
Thomas, Kim S.
author_facet Wilkes, Sally R.
Williams, Hywel C.
Ormerod, Anthony D.
Craig, Fiona E.
Greenlaw, Nicola
Norrie, John
Mitchell, Eleanor
Mason, James M.
Thomas, Kim S.
author_sort Wilkes, Sally R.
building Nottingham Research Data Repository
collection Online Access
description Background: Pyoderma gangrenosum is a rare inflammatory skin condition. The STOPGAP studies compared treatments for pyoderma gangrenosum using a primary outcome of healing speed at 6 weeks. Objective: Using data from both studies we assessed the predictive value of three early predictors for healing at 6 months - speed of healing, Investigator Global Assessment and resolution of inflammation, recorded at 2 and 6 weeks. Methods: Logistic regression models were applied and the effectiveness of the three measures was assessed through estimating the positive (PPV) and negative predictive values (NPV) and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). Results: The PPV and NPV at 6 weeks were 63.5% (95% CI:52.4%, 73.7%) and 74.6% (95% CI:62.5%, 84.5%) respectively for speed of healing; 80% (95% CI:68.7%, 88.6%) and 74.2% (95% CI:64.1%, 2.7%) for IGA; and 72.1% (95% CI:59.9%, 82.3%) and 68.1% (95% CI:57.7%, 77.3%) for resolution of inflammation. Investigator Global Assessment had the best combined PPV, NPV and AUC at 2 and 6 weeks. Limitations: We were limited by data available from the STOP GAP trial and cohort study. Conclusion: Speed of healing, Investigator Global Assessment and resolution of inflammation were all shown to be good predictors of eventual healing.
first_indexed 2025-11-14T19:26:40Z
format Article
id nottingham-35520
institution University of Nottingham Malaysia Campus
institution_category Local University
last_indexed 2025-11-14T19:26:40Z
publishDate 2016
publisher Elsevier
recordtype eprints
repository_type Digital Repository
spelling nottingham-355202020-05-04T18:17:33Z https://eprints.nottingham.ac.uk/35520/ Is speed of healing a good predictor of eventual healing of pyoderma gangrenosum? Wilkes, Sally R. Williams, Hywel C. Ormerod, Anthony D. Craig, Fiona E. Greenlaw, Nicola Norrie, John Mitchell, Eleanor Mason, James M. Thomas, Kim S. Background: Pyoderma gangrenosum is a rare inflammatory skin condition. The STOPGAP studies compared treatments for pyoderma gangrenosum using a primary outcome of healing speed at 6 weeks. Objective: Using data from both studies we assessed the predictive value of three early predictors for healing at 6 months - speed of healing, Investigator Global Assessment and resolution of inflammation, recorded at 2 and 6 weeks. Methods: Logistic regression models were applied and the effectiveness of the three measures was assessed through estimating the positive (PPV) and negative predictive values (NPV) and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). Results: The PPV and NPV at 6 weeks were 63.5% (95% CI:52.4%, 73.7%) and 74.6% (95% CI:62.5%, 84.5%) respectively for speed of healing; 80% (95% CI:68.7%, 88.6%) and 74.2% (95% CI:64.1%, 2.7%) for IGA; and 72.1% (95% CI:59.9%, 82.3%) and 68.1% (95% CI:57.7%, 77.3%) for resolution of inflammation. Investigator Global Assessment had the best combined PPV, NPV and AUC at 2 and 6 weeks. Limitations: We were limited by data available from the STOP GAP trial and cohort study. Conclusion: Speed of healing, Investigator Global Assessment and resolution of inflammation were all shown to be good predictors of eventual healing. Elsevier 2016-10-11 Article PeerReviewed Wilkes, Sally R., Williams, Hywel C., Ormerod, Anthony D., Craig, Fiona E., Greenlaw, Nicola, Norrie, John, Mitchell, Eleanor, Mason, James M. and Thomas, Kim S. (2016) Is speed of healing a good predictor of eventual healing of pyoderma gangrenosum? Journal of the American Academy of Dermatology, 75 (6). 1216-1220.e2. ISSN 1097-6787 Pyoderma Gangrenosum Speed of Healing Lesion Improvement Resolution of Inflammation Predictors Clinical Trials Clinical Practice http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0190962216306016 doi:10.1016/j.jaad.2016.07.049 doi:10.1016/j.jaad.2016.07.049
spellingShingle Pyoderma Gangrenosum
Speed of Healing
Lesion Improvement
Resolution of Inflammation
Predictors
Clinical Trials
Clinical Practice
Wilkes, Sally R.
Williams, Hywel C.
Ormerod, Anthony D.
Craig, Fiona E.
Greenlaw, Nicola
Norrie, John
Mitchell, Eleanor
Mason, James M.
Thomas, Kim S.
Is speed of healing a good predictor of eventual healing of pyoderma gangrenosum?
title Is speed of healing a good predictor of eventual healing of pyoderma gangrenosum?
title_full Is speed of healing a good predictor of eventual healing of pyoderma gangrenosum?
title_fullStr Is speed of healing a good predictor of eventual healing of pyoderma gangrenosum?
title_full_unstemmed Is speed of healing a good predictor of eventual healing of pyoderma gangrenosum?
title_short Is speed of healing a good predictor of eventual healing of pyoderma gangrenosum?
title_sort is speed of healing a good predictor of eventual healing of pyoderma gangrenosum?
topic Pyoderma Gangrenosum
Speed of Healing
Lesion Improvement
Resolution of Inflammation
Predictors
Clinical Trials
Clinical Practice
url https://eprints.nottingham.ac.uk/35520/
https://eprints.nottingham.ac.uk/35520/
https://eprints.nottingham.ac.uk/35520/