Population-based weight loss and gain do not explain trends in asthma mortality in Cuba: a prospective study from 1964 to 2014
Background The increase in prevalence of obesity is a possible risk factor for asthma in developed countries. As the people of Cuba experienced an acute population-based decrease in weight in the 1990s, we tested the hypothesis that national weight loss and subsequent weight gain was associated a...
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| Format: | Article |
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Elsevier
2016
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| Online Access: | https://eprints.nottingham.ac.uk/35224/ |
| _version_ | 1848795031331143680 |
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| author | Suárez-Medina, Ramon Venero-Fernández, Silvia Josefina Britton, John Fogarty, Andrew W. |
| author_facet | Suárez-Medina, Ramon Venero-Fernández, Silvia Josefina Britton, John Fogarty, Andrew W. |
| author_sort | Suárez-Medina, Ramon |
| building | Nottingham Research Data Repository |
| collection | Online Access |
| description | Background
The increase in prevalence of obesity is a possible risk factor for asthma in developed countries. As the people of Cuba experienced an acute population-based decrease in weight in the 1990s, we tested the hypothesis that national weight loss and subsequent weight gain was associated a reciprocal changes in asthma mortality.
Methods
Data were obtained on mortality rates from asthma and COPD in Cuba from 1964 to 2014, along with data on prevalence of obesity for this period. Joinpoint analysis was used to identify inflexion points in the data.
Results
Although the prevalence of obesity from 1990 to 1995 decreased from 14% to 7%, over the same time period the rate of asthma mortality increased from 4.5 deaths per 100,000 population to 5.4 deaths per 100,000 population. In 2010, the obesity prevalence subsequently increased to 15% in 2010, while the asthma mortality rate dropped to 2.3 deaths per 100,000 population. The optimal model for fit of asthma mortality over time gave an increasing linear association from 1964 to 1995 (95% confidence interval for inflexion point: 1993 to 1997), followed by a decrease in asthma mortality rates from 1995 to 1999 (95% confidence interval for inflexion point: 1997 to 2002).
Conclusions
These national data do not support the hypothesis that population-based changes in weight are associated with asthma mortality. Other possible explanations for the large decreases in asthma mortality rates include changes in pollution or better delivery of medical care over the same time period. |
| first_indexed | 2025-11-14T19:25:37Z |
| format | Article |
| id | nottingham-35224 |
| institution | University of Nottingham Malaysia Campus |
| institution_category | Local University |
| last_indexed | 2025-11-14T19:25:37Z |
| publishDate | 2016 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| recordtype | eprints |
| repository_type | Digital Repository |
| spelling | nottingham-352242020-05-04T20:01:24Z https://eprints.nottingham.ac.uk/35224/ Population-based weight loss and gain do not explain trends in asthma mortality in Cuba: a prospective study from 1964 to 2014 Suárez-Medina, Ramon Venero-Fernández, Silvia Josefina Britton, John Fogarty, Andrew W. Background The increase in prevalence of obesity is a possible risk factor for asthma in developed countries. As the people of Cuba experienced an acute population-based decrease in weight in the 1990s, we tested the hypothesis that national weight loss and subsequent weight gain was associated a reciprocal changes in asthma mortality. Methods Data were obtained on mortality rates from asthma and COPD in Cuba from 1964 to 2014, along with data on prevalence of obesity for this period. Joinpoint analysis was used to identify inflexion points in the data. Results Although the prevalence of obesity from 1990 to 1995 decreased from 14% to 7%, over the same time period the rate of asthma mortality increased from 4.5 deaths per 100,000 population to 5.4 deaths per 100,000 population. In 2010, the obesity prevalence subsequently increased to 15% in 2010, while the asthma mortality rate dropped to 2.3 deaths per 100,000 population. The optimal model for fit of asthma mortality over time gave an increasing linear association from 1964 to 1995 (95% confidence interval for inflexion point: 1993 to 1997), followed by a decrease in asthma mortality rates from 1995 to 1999 (95% confidence interval for inflexion point: 1997 to 2002). Conclusions These national data do not support the hypothesis that population-based changes in weight are associated with asthma mortality. Other possible explanations for the large decreases in asthma mortality rates include changes in pollution or better delivery of medical care over the same time period. Elsevier 2016-09 Article PeerReviewed Suárez-Medina, Ramon, Venero-Fernández, Silvia Josefina, Britton, John and Fogarty, Andrew W. (2016) Population-based weight loss and gain do not explain trends in asthma mortality in Cuba: a prospective study from 1964 to 2014. Respiratory Medicine, 118 . pp. 4-6. ISSN 1532-3064 Cuba; Asthma; Mortality; Obesity http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0954611116301500 doi:10.1016/j.rmed.2016.07.003 doi:10.1016/j.rmed.2016.07.003 |
| spellingShingle | Cuba; Asthma; Mortality; Obesity Suárez-Medina, Ramon Venero-Fernández, Silvia Josefina Britton, John Fogarty, Andrew W. Population-based weight loss and gain do not explain trends in asthma mortality in Cuba: a prospective study from 1964 to 2014 |
| title | Population-based weight loss and gain do not explain trends in asthma mortality in Cuba: a prospective study from 1964 to 2014 |
| title_full | Population-based weight loss and gain do not explain trends in asthma mortality in Cuba: a prospective study from 1964 to 2014 |
| title_fullStr | Population-based weight loss and gain do not explain trends in asthma mortality in Cuba: a prospective study from 1964 to 2014 |
| title_full_unstemmed | Population-based weight loss and gain do not explain trends in asthma mortality in Cuba: a prospective study from 1964 to 2014 |
| title_short | Population-based weight loss and gain do not explain trends in asthma mortality in Cuba: a prospective study from 1964 to 2014 |
| title_sort | population-based weight loss and gain do not explain trends in asthma mortality in cuba: a prospective study from 1964 to 2014 |
| topic | Cuba; Asthma; Mortality; Obesity |
| url | https://eprints.nottingham.ac.uk/35224/ https://eprints.nottingham.ac.uk/35224/ https://eprints.nottingham.ac.uk/35224/ |