A web-based tool for eliciting probability distributions from experts
We present a web-based probability distribution elicitation tool: The MATCH Uncertainty Elicitation Tool. The Tool is designed to help elicit probability distributions about uncertain model parameters from experts, in situations where suitable data is either unavailable or sparse. The Tool is free t...
| Main Authors: | , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Published: |
Elsevier
2014
|
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://eprints.nottingham.ac.uk/35002/ |
| _version_ | 1848794980142809088 |
|---|---|
| author | Morris, David E. Oakley, Jeremy E. Crowe, John A. |
| author_facet | Morris, David E. Oakley, Jeremy E. Crowe, John A. |
| author_sort | Morris, David E. |
| building | Nottingham Research Data Repository |
| collection | Online Access |
| description | We present a web-based probability distribution elicitation tool: The MATCH Uncertainty Elicitation Tool. The Tool is designed to help elicit probability distributions about uncertain model parameters from experts, in situations where suitable data is either unavailable or sparse. The Tool is free to use, and offers five different techniques for eliciting univariate probability distributions. A key feature of the Tool is that users can log in from different sites and view and interact with the same graphical displays, so that expert elicitation sessions can be conducted remotely (in conjunction with tele- or videoconferencing). This will make probability elicitation easier in situations where it is difficult to interview experts in person. Even when conducting elicitation remotely, interviewers will be able to follow good elicitation practice, advise the experts, and provide instantaneous feedback and assistance. |
| first_indexed | 2025-11-14T19:24:48Z |
| format | Article |
| id | nottingham-35002 |
| institution | University of Nottingham Malaysia Campus |
| institution_category | Local University |
| last_indexed | 2025-11-14T19:24:48Z |
| publishDate | 2014 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| recordtype | eprints |
| repository_type | Digital Repository |
| spelling | nottingham-350022020-05-04T16:40:54Z https://eprints.nottingham.ac.uk/35002/ A web-based tool for eliciting probability distributions from experts Morris, David E. Oakley, Jeremy E. Crowe, John A. We present a web-based probability distribution elicitation tool: The MATCH Uncertainty Elicitation Tool. The Tool is designed to help elicit probability distributions about uncertain model parameters from experts, in situations where suitable data is either unavailable or sparse. The Tool is free to use, and offers five different techniques for eliciting univariate probability distributions. A key feature of the Tool is that users can log in from different sites and view and interact with the same graphical displays, so that expert elicitation sessions can be conducted remotely (in conjunction with tele- or videoconferencing). This will make probability elicitation easier in situations where it is difficult to interview experts in person. Even when conducting elicitation remotely, interviewers will be able to follow good elicitation practice, advise the experts, and provide instantaneous feedback and assistance. Elsevier 2014-02-01 Article PeerReviewed Morris, David E., Oakley, Jeremy E. and Crowe, John A. (2014) A web-based tool for eliciting probability distributions from experts. Environmental Modelling and Software, 52 . pp. 1-4. ISSN 1873-6726 Bayesian prior distribution; Expert judgement; Subjective probability; Web-based elicitation http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1364815213002533 doi:10.1016/j.envsoft.2013.10.010 doi:10.1016/j.envsoft.2013.10.010 |
| spellingShingle | Bayesian prior distribution; Expert judgement; Subjective probability; Web-based elicitation Morris, David E. Oakley, Jeremy E. Crowe, John A. A web-based tool for eliciting probability distributions from experts |
| title | A web-based tool for eliciting probability distributions from experts |
| title_full | A web-based tool for eliciting probability distributions from experts |
| title_fullStr | A web-based tool for eliciting probability distributions from experts |
| title_full_unstemmed | A web-based tool for eliciting probability distributions from experts |
| title_short | A web-based tool for eliciting probability distributions from experts |
| title_sort | web-based tool for eliciting probability distributions from experts |
| topic | Bayesian prior distribution; Expert judgement; Subjective probability; Web-based elicitation |
| url | https://eprints.nottingham.ac.uk/35002/ https://eprints.nottingham.ac.uk/35002/ https://eprints.nottingham.ac.uk/35002/ |