Improving the length of confidence sets for the date of a break in level and trend when the order of integration is unknown

Harvey and Leybourne (2015) construct confidence sets for the timing of a break in level and/or trend, based on inverting sequences of test statistics for a break at all possible dates. These are valid, in the sense of yielding correct asymptotic coverage, for I(0) or I(1) errors. In constructing th...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: Harvey, David I., Leybourne, Stephen J.
Format: Article
Published: Elsevier 2016
Subjects:
Online Access:https://eprints.nottingham.ac.uk/34999/
Description
Summary:Harvey and Leybourne (2015) construct confidence sets for the timing of a break in level and/or trend, based on inverting sequences of test statistics for a break at all possible dates. These are valid, in the sense of yielding correct asymptotic coverage, for I(0) or I(1) errors. In constructing the tests, location-dependent weights are chosen for values of the break magnitude parameter such that each test conveniently has the same limit null distribution. By not imposing such a scheme, we show that it is generally possible to significantly shorten the length of the confidence sets, whilst maintaining accurate coverage properties.