Global, regional, and national levels of neonatal, infant, and under-5 mortality during 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

Background Remarkable financial and political efforts have been focused on the reduction of child mortality during the past few decades. Timely measurements of levels and trends in under-5 mortality are important to assess progress towards the Millennium Development Goal 4 (MDG 4) target of redu...

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Main Authors: Wang, Haidong, Liddell, Chelsea A, Coates, Matthew M, Mooney, Meghan D, Levitz, Carly E, Schumacher, Austin E, Apfel, Henry, Iannarone, Marissa, Phillips, Bryan, Lofgren, Katherine T, Sandar, Logan, Dorrington, Rob E, Rakovac, Ivo, Jacobs, Troy A, Liang, Xiaofeng, Zhou, Maigeng, Zhu, Jun, Yang, Gonghuan, Wang, Yanping, Liu, Shiwei, Li, Yichong, Ozgoren, Ayse Abbasoglu, Abera, Semaw Ferede, Abubakar, Ibrahim, Achoki, Tom, Adelekan, Ademola, Ademi, Zanfina, Alemu, Zewdie Aderaw, Allen, Peter J, AlMazroa, Mohammad AbdulAziz, Alvarez, Elena, Amankwaa, Adansi A, Amare, Azmeraw T, Ammar, Walid, Anwari, Palwasha, Cunningham, Solveig Argeseanu, Asad, Majed Masoud, Assadi, Reza, Banerjee, Amitava, Basu, Sanjay, Bedi, Neeraj, Bekele, Tolesa, Bell, Michelle L, Bhutta, Zulfiqar, Blore, Jed D, Basara, Berrak Bora, Boufous, Soufiane, Breitborde, Nicholas, Bruce, Nigel G, Bui, Linh Ngoc, Carapetis, Jonathan R, Cárdenas, Rosario, Carpenter, David O, Caso, Valeria, Castro, Ruben Estanislao, Catalá-Lopéz, Ferrán, Cavlin, Alanur, Che, Xuan, Chiang, Peggy Pei-Chia, Chowdhury, Rajiv, Christophi, Costas A, Chuang, Ting-Wu, Cirillo, Massimo, da Costa Leite, Iuri, Courville, Karen J, Dandona, Lalit, Dandona, Rakhi, Davis, Adrian, Dayama, Anand, Deribe, Kebede, Dharmaratne, Samath D, Dherani, Mukesh K, Dilmen, Uğur, Ding, Eric L, Edmond, Karen M, Ermakov, Sergei Petrovich, Farzadfar, Farshad, Fereshtehnejad, Seyed-Mohammad, Fijabi, Daniel Obadare, Foigt, Nataliya, Forouzanfar, Mohammad H, Garcia, Ana C, Geleijnse, Johanna M, Gessner, Bradford D, Goginashvili, Ketevan, Gona, Philimon, Goto, Atsushi, Gouda, Hebe N, Green, Mark A, Greenwell, Karen Fern, Gugnani, Harish Chander, Gupta, Rahul, Hamadeh, Randah Ribhi, Hammami, Mouhanad, Harb, Hilda L, Hay, Simon, Hedayati, Mohammad T, Hosgood, H Dean, Hoy, Damian G, Idrisov, Bulat T, Islami, Farhad, Ismayilova, Samaya, Jha, Vivekanand, Jiang, Guohong, Jonas, Jost B, Juel, Knud, Kabagambe, Edmond Kato, Kazi, Dhruv S, Kengne, Andre Pascal, Kereselidze, Maia, Khader, Yousef Saleh, Khalifa, Shams Eldin Ali Hassan, Khang, Young-Ho, Kim, Daniel, Kinfu, Yohannes, Kinge, Jonas M, Kokubo, Yoshihiro, Kosen, Soewarta, Defo, Barthelemy Kuate, Kumar, G Anil, Kumar, Kaushalendra, Kumar, Ravi B, Lai, Taavi, Lan, Qing, Larsson, Anders, Lee, Jong-Tae, Leinsalu, Mall, Lim, Stephen S, Lipshultz, Steven E, Logroscino, Giancarlo, Lotufo, Paulo A, Lunevicius, Raimundas, Lyons, Ronan Anthony, Ma, Stefan, Mahdi, Abbas Ali, Marzan, Melvin Barrientos, Mashal, Mohammad Taufiq, Mazorodze, Tasara T, McGrath, John J, Memish, Ziad A, Mendoza, Walter, Mensah, George A, Meretoja, Atte, Miller, Ted R, Mills, Edward J, Mohammad, Karzan Abdulmuhsin, Mokdad, Ali H, Monasta, Lorenzo, Montico, Marcella, Moore, Ami R, Moschandreas, Joanna, Msemburi, William T, Mueller, Ulrich O, Muszynska, Magdalena M, Naghavi, Mohsen, Naidoo, Kovin S, Narayan, KM Venkat, Nejjari, Chakib, Ng, Marie, de Dieu Ngirabega, Jean, Nieuwenhuijsen, Mark J, Nyakarahuka, Luke, Ohkubo, Takayoshi, Omer, Saad B, Caicedo, Angel J Paternina, Wyk, Victoria Pillay-van, Pope, Dan, Pourmalek, Farshad, Prabhakaran, Dorairaj, Rahman, Sajjad UR, Rana, Saleem M, Reilly, Robert Quentin, Rojas-Rueda, David, Ronfani, Luca, Rushton, Lesley, Saeedi, Mohammad Yahya, Salomon, Joshua A, Sampson, Uchechukwu, Santos, Itamar S, Sawhney, Monika, Schmidt, Jürgen C, Shakh-Nazarova, Marina, She, Jun, Sheikhbahaei, Sara, Shibuya, Kenji, Shin, Hwashin Hyun, Shishani, Kawkab, Shiue, Ivy, Sigfusdottir, Inga Dora, Singh, Jasvinder A, Skirbekk, Vegard, Sliwa, Karen, Soshnikov, Sergey S, Sposato, Luciano A, Stathopoulou, Vasiliki Kalliopi, Stroumpoulis, Konstantinos, Tabb, Karen M, Talongwa, Roberto Tchio, Teixeira, Carolina Maria, Terkawi, Abdullah Sulieman, Thomson, Alan J, Thorne-Lyman, Andrew L, Toyoshima, Hideaki, Dimbuene, Zacharie Tsala, Uwaliraye, Parfait, Uzun, Selen Begüm, Vasankari, Tommi J, Vasconcelos, Ana Maria Nogales, Vlassov, Vasiliy Victorovich, Vollset, Stein Emil, Waller, Stephen, Wan, Xia, Weichenthal, Scott, Weiderpass, Elisabete, Weintraub, Robert G, Westerman, Ronny, Wilkinson, James D, Williams, Hywel C, Yang, Yang C, Yentur, Gokalp Kadri, Yip, Paul, Yonemoto, Naohiro, Younis, Mustafa, Yu, Chuanhua, Jin, Kim Yun, El Sayed Zaki, Maysaa, Zhu, Shankuan, Vos, Theo, Lopez, Alan D, Murray, Christopher J L
Format: Article
Published: Elsevier 2014
Online Access:https://eprints.nottingham.ac.uk/33047/
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author Wang, Haidong
Liddell, Chelsea A
Coates, Matthew M
Mooney, Meghan D
Levitz, Carly E
Schumacher, Austin E
Apfel, Henry
Iannarone, Marissa
Phillips, Bryan
Lofgren, Katherine T
Sandar, Logan
Dorrington, Rob E
Rakovac, Ivo
Jacobs, Troy A
Liang, Xiaofeng
Zhou, Maigeng
Zhu, Jun
Yang, Gonghuan
Wang, Yanping
Liu, Shiwei
Li, Yichong
Ozgoren, Ayse Abbasoglu
Abera, Semaw Ferede
Abubakar, Ibrahim
Achoki, Tom
Adelekan, Ademola
Ademi, Zanfina
Alemu, Zewdie Aderaw
Allen, Peter J
AlMazroa, Mohammad AbdulAziz
Alvarez, Elena
Amankwaa, Adansi A
Amare, Azmeraw T
Ammar, Walid
Anwari, Palwasha
Cunningham, Solveig Argeseanu
Asad, Majed Masoud
Assadi, Reza
Banerjee, Amitava
Basu, Sanjay
Bedi, Neeraj
Bekele, Tolesa
Bell, Michelle L
Bhutta, Zulfiqar
Blore, Jed D
Basara, Berrak Bora
Boufous, Soufiane
Breitborde, Nicholas
Bruce, Nigel G
Bui, Linh Ngoc
Carapetis, Jonathan R
Cárdenas, Rosario
Carpenter, David O
Caso, Valeria
Castro, Ruben Estanislao
Catalá-Lopéz, Ferrán
Cavlin, Alanur
Che, Xuan
Chiang, Peggy Pei-Chia
Chowdhury, Rajiv
Christophi, Costas A
Chuang, Ting-Wu
Cirillo, Massimo
da Costa Leite, Iuri
Courville, Karen J
Dandona, Lalit
Dandona, Rakhi
Davis, Adrian
Dayama, Anand
Deribe, Kebede
Dharmaratne, Samath D
Dherani, Mukesh K
Dilmen, Uğur
Ding, Eric L
Edmond, Karen M
Ermakov, Sergei Petrovich
Farzadfar, Farshad
Fereshtehnejad, Seyed-Mohammad
Fijabi, Daniel Obadare
Foigt, Nataliya
Forouzanfar, Mohammad H
Garcia, Ana C
Geleijnse, Johanna M
Gessner, Bradford D
Goginashvili, Ketevan
Gona, Philimon
Goto, Atsushi
Gouda, Hebe N
Green, Mark A
Greenwell, Karen Fern
Gugnani, Harish Chander
Gupta, Rahul
Hamadeh, Randah Ribhi
Hammami, Mouhanad
Harb, Hilda L
Hay, Simon
Hedayati, Mohammad T
Hosgood, H Dean
Hoy, Damian G
Idrisov, Bulat T
Islami, Farhad
Ismayilova, Samaya
Jha, Vivekanand
Jiang, Guohong
Jonas, Jost B
Juel, Knud
Kabagambe, Edmond Kato
Kazi, Dhruv S
Kengne, Andre Pascal
Kereselidze, Maia
Khader, Yousef Saleh
Khalifa, Shams Eldin Ali Hassan
Khang, Young-Ho
Kim, Daniel
Kinfu, Yohannes
Kinge, Jonas M
Kokubo, Yoshihiro
Kosen, Soewarta
Defo, Barthelemy Kuate
Kumar, G Anil
Kumar, Kaushalendra
Kumar, Ravi B
Lai, Taavi
Lan, Qing
Larsson, Anders
Lee, Jong-Tae
Leinsalu, Mall
Lim, Stephen S
Lipshultz, Steven E
Logroscino, Giancarlo
Lotufo, Paulo A
Lunevicius, Raimundas
Lyons, Ronan Anthony
Ma, Stefan
Mahdi, Abbas Ali
Marzan, Melvin Barrientos
Mashal, Mohammad Taufiq
Mazorodze, Tasara T
McGrath, John J
Memish, Ziad A
Mendoza, Walter
Mensah, George A
Meretoja, Atte
Miller, Ted R
Mills, Edward J
Mohammad, Karzan Abdulmuhsin
Mokdad, Ali H
Monasta, Lorenzo
Montico, Marcella
Moore, Ami R
Moschandreas, Joanna
Msemburi, William T
Mueller, Ulrich O
Muszynska, Magdalena M
Naghavi, Mohsen
Naidoo, Kovin S
Narayan, KM Venkat
Nejjari, Chakib
Ng, Marie
de Dieu Ngirabega, Jean
Nieuwenhuijsen, Mark J
Nyakarahuka, Luke
Ohkubo, Takayoshi
Omer, Saad B
Caicedo, Angel J Paternina
Wyk, Victoria Pillay-van
Pope, Dan
Pourmalek, Farshad
Prabhakaran, Dorairaj
Rahman, Sajjad UR
Rana, Saleem M
Reilly, Robert Quentin
Rojas-Rueda, David
Ronfani, Luca
Rushton, Lesley
Saeedi, Mohammad Yahya
Salomon, Joshua A
Sampson, Uchechukwu
Santos, Itamar S
Sawhney, Monika
Schmidt, Jürgen C
Shakh-Nazarova, Marina
She, Jun
Sheikhbahaei, Sara
Shibuya, Kenji
Shin, Hwashin Hyun
Shishani, Kawkab
Shiue, Ivy
Sigfusdottir, Inga Dora
Singh, Jasvinder A
Skirbekk, Vegard
Sliwa, Karen
Soshnikov, Sergey S
Sposato, Luciano A
Stathopoulou, Vasiliki Kalliopi
Stroumpoulis, Konstantinos
Tabb, Karen M
Talongwa, Roberto Tchio
Teixeira, Carolina Maria
Terkawi, Abdullah Sulieman
Thomson, Alan J
Thorne-Lyman, Andrew L
Toyoshima, Hideaki
Dimbuene, Zacharie Tsala
Uwaliraye, Parfait
Uzun, Selen Begüm
Vasankari, Tommi J
Vasconcelos, Ana Maria Nogales
Vlassov, Vasiliy Victorovich
Vollset, Stein Emil
Waller, Stephen
Wan, Xia
Weichenthal, Scott
Weiderpass, Elisabete
Weintraub, Robert G
Westerman, Ronny
Wilkinson, James D
Williams, Hywel C
Yang, Yang C
Yentur, Gokalp Kadri
Yip, Paul
Yonemoto, Naohiro
Younis, Mustafa
Yu, Chuanhua
Jin, Kim Yun
El Sayed Zaki, Maysaa
Zhu, Shankuan
Vos, Theo
Lopez, Alan D
Murray, Christopher J L
author_facet Wang, Haidong
Liddell, Chelsea A
Coates, Matthew M
Mooney, Meghan D
Levitz, Carly E
Schumacher, Austin E
Apfel, Henry
Iannarone, Marissa
Phillips, Bryan
Lofgren, Katherine T
Sandar, Logan
Dorrington, Rob E
Rakovac, Ivo
Jacobs, Troy A
Liang, Xiaofeng
Zhou, Maigeng
Zhu, Jun
Yang, Gonghuan
Wang, Yanping
Liu, Shiwei
Li, Yichong
Ozgoren, Ayse Abbasoglu
Abera, Semaw Ferede
Abubakar, Ibrahim
Achoki, Tom
Adelekan, Ademola
Ademi, Zanfina
Alemu, Zewdie Aderaw
Allen, Peter J
AlMazroa, Mohammad AbdulAziz
Alvarez, Elena
Amankwaa, Adansi A
Amare, Azmeraw T
Ammar, Walid
Anwari, Palwasha
Cunningham, Solveig Argeseanu
Asad, Majed Masoud
Assadi, Reza
Banerjee, Amitava
Basu, Sanjay
Bedi, Neeraj
Bekele, Tolesa
Bell, Michelle L
Bhutta, Zulfiqar
Blore, Jed D
Basara, Berrak Bora
Boufous, Soufiane
Breitborde, Nicholas
Bruce, Nigel G
Bui, Linh Ngoc
Carapetis, Jonathan R
Cárdenas, Rosario
Carpenter, David O
Caso, Valeria
Castro, Ruben Estanislao
Catalá-Lopéz, Ferrán
Cavlin, Alanur
Che, Xuan
Chiang, Peggy Pei-Chia
Chowdhury, Rajiv
Christophi, Costas A
Chuang, Ting-Wu
Cirillo, Massimo
da Costa Leite, Iuri
Courville, Karen J
Dandona, Lalit
Dandona, Rakhi
Davis, Adrian
Dayama, Anand
Deribe, Kebede
Dharmaratne, Samath D
Dherani, Mukesh K
Dilmen, Uğur
Ding, Eric L
Edmond, Karen M
Ermakov, Sergei Petrovich
Farzadfar, Farshad
Fereshtehnejad, Seyed-Mohammad
Fijabi, Daniel Obadare
Foigt, Nataliya
Forouzanfar, Mohammad H
Garcia, Ana C
Geleijnse, Johanna M
Gessner, Bradford D
Goginashvili, Ketevan
Gona, Philimon
Goto, Atsushi
Gouda, Hebe N
Green, Mark A
Greenwell, Karen Fern
Gugnani, Harish Chander
Gupta, Rahul
Hamadeh, Randah Ribhi
Hammami, Mouhanad
Harb, Hilda L
Hay, Simon
Hedayati, Mohammad T
Hosgood, H Dean
Hoy, Damian G
Idrisov, Bulat T
Islami, Farhad
Ismayilova, Samaya
Jha, Vivekanand
Jiang, Guohong
Jonas, Jost B
Juel, Knud
Kabagambe, Edmond Kato
Kazi, Dhruv S
Kengne, Andre Pascal
Kereselidze, Maia
Khader, Yousef Saleh
Khalifa, Shams Eldin Ali Hassan
Khang, Young-Ho
Kim, Daniel
Kinfu, Yohannes
Kinge, Jonas M
Kokubo, Yoshihiro
Kosen, Soewarta
Defo, Barthelemy Kuate
Kumar, G Anil
Kumar, Kaushalendra
Kumar, Ravi B
Lai, Taavi
Lan, Qing
Larsson, Anders
Lee, Jong-Tae
Leinsalu, Mall
Lim, Stephen S
Lipshultz, Steven E
Logroscino, Giancarlo
Lotufo, Paulo A
Lunevicius, Raimundas
Lyons, Ronan Anthony
Ma, Stefan
Mahdi, Abbas Ali
Marzan, Melvin Barrientos
Mashal, Mohammad Taufiq
Mazorodze, Tasara T
McGrath, John J
Memish, Ziad A
Mendoza, Walter
Mensah, George A
Meretoja, Atte
Miller, Ted R
Mills, Edward J
Mohammad, Karzan Abdulmuhsin
Mokdad, Ali H
Monasta, Lorenzo
Montico, Marcella
Moore, Ami R
Moschandreas, Joanna
Msemburi, William T
Mueller, Ulrich O
Muszynska, Magdalena M
Naghavi, Mohsen
Naidoo, Kovin S
Narayan, KM Venkat
Nejjari, Chakib
Ng, Marie
de Dieu Ngirabega, Jean
Nieuwenhuijsen, Mark J
Nyakarahuka, Luke
Ohkubo, Takayoshi
Omer, Saad B
Caicedo, Angel J Paternina
Wyk, Victoria Pillay-van
Pope, Dan
Pourmalek, Farshad
Prabhakaran, Dorairaj
Rahman, Sajjad UR
Rana, Saleem M
Reilly, Robert Quentin
Rojas-Rueda, David
Ronfani, Luca
Rushton, Lesley
Saeedi, Mohammad Yahya
Salomon, Joshua A
Sampson, Uchechukwu
Santos, Itamar S
Sawhney, Monika
Schmidt, Jürgen C
Shakh-Nazarova, Marina
She, Jun
Sheikhbahaei, Sara
Shibuya, Kenji
Shin, Hwashin Hyun
Shishani, Kawkab
Shiue, Ivy
Sigfusdottir, Inga Dora
Singh, Jasvinder A
Skirbekk, Vegard
Sliwa, Karen
Soshnikov, Sergey S
Sposato, Luciano A
Stathopoulou, Vasiliki Kalliopi
Stroumpoulis, Konstantinos
Tabb, Karen M
Talongwa, Roberto Tchio
Teixeira, Carolina Maria
Terkawi, Abdullah Sulieman
Thomson, Alan J
Thorne-Lyman, Andrew L
Toyoshima, Hideaki
Dimbuene, Zacharie Tsala
Uwaliraye, Parfait
Uzun, Selen Begüm
Vasankari, Tommi J
Vasconcelos, Ana Maria Nogales
Vlassov, Vasiliy Victorovich
Vollset, Stein Emil
Waller, Stephen
Wan, Xia
Weichenthal, Scott
Weiderpass, Elisabete
Weintraub, Robert G
Westerman, Ronny
Wilkinson, James D
Williams, Hywel C
Yang, Yang C
Yentur, Gokalp Kadri
Yip, Paul
Yonemoto, Naohiro
Younis, Mustafa
Yu, Chuanhua
Jin, Kim Yun
El Sayed Zaki, Maysaa
Zhu, Shankuan
Vos, Theo
Lopez, Alan D
Murray, Christopher J L
author_sort Wang, Haidong
building Nottingham Research Data Repository
collection Online Access
description Background Remarkable financial and political efforts have been focused on the reduction of child mortality during the past few decades. Timely measurements of levels and trends in under-5 mortality are important to assess progress towards the Millennium Development Goal 4 (MDG 4) target of reduction of child mortality by two thirds from 1990 to 2015, and to identify models of success. Methods We generated updated estimates of child mortality in early neonatal (age 0–6 days), late neonatal (7–28 days), postneonatal (29–364 days), childhood (1–4 years), and under-5 (0–4 years) age groups for 188 countries from 1970 to 2013, with more than 29 000 survey, census, vital registration, and sample registration datapoints. We used Gaussian process regression with adjustments for bias and non-sampling error to synthesise the data for under-5 mortality for each country, and a separate model to estimate mortality for more detailed age groups. We used explanatory mixed effects regression models to assess the association between under-5 mortality and income per person, maternal education, HIV child death rates, secular shifts, and other factors. To quantify the contribution of these different factors and birth numbers to the change in numbers of deaths in under-5 age groups from 1990 to 2013, we used Shapley decomposition. We used estimated rates of change between 2000 and 2013 to construct under-5 mortality rate scenarios out to 2030. Findings We estimated that 6·3 million (95% UI 6·0–6·6) children under-5 died in 2013, a 64% reduction from 17·6 million (17·1–18·1) in 1970. In 2013, child mortality rates ranged from 152·5 per 1000 livebirths (130·6–177·4) in Guinea-Bissau to 2·3 (1·8–2·9) per 1000 in Singapore. The annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2013 ranged from –6·8% to 0·1%. 99 of 188 countries, including 43 of 48 countries in sub-Saharan Africa, had faster decreases in child mortality during 2000–13 than during 1990–2000. In 2013, neonatal deaths accounted for 41·6% of under-5 deaths compared with 37·4% in 1990. Compared with 1990, in 2013, rising numbersof births, especially in sub-Saharan Africa, led to 1·4 million more child deaths, and rising income per person and maternal education led to 0·9 million and 2·2 million fewer deaths, respectively. Changes in secular trends led to 4·2 million fewer deaths. Unexplained factors accounted for only –1% of the change in child deaths. In 30 developing countries, decreases since 2000 have been faster than predicted attributable to income, education, and secular shift alone. Interpretation Only 27 developing countries are expected to achieve MDG 4. Decreases since 2000 in under-5 mortality rates are accelerating in many developing countries, especially in sub-Saharan Africa. The Millennium Declaration and increased development assistance for health might have been a factor in faster decreases in some developing countries. Without further accelerated progress, many countries in west and central Africa will still have high levels of under-5 mortality in 2030.
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repository_type Digital Repository
spelling nottingham-330472020-04-29T15:07:08Z https://eprints.nottingham.ac.uk/33047/ Global, regional, and national levels of neonatal, infant, and under-5 mortality during 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 Wang, Haidong Liddell, Chelsea A Coates, Matthew M Mooney, Meghan D Levitz, Carly E Schumacher, Austin E Apfel, Henry Iannarone, Marissa Phillips, Bryan Lofgren, Katherine T Sandar, Logan Dorrington, Rob E Rakovac, Ivo Jacobs, Troy A Liang, Xiaofeng Zhou, Maigeng Zhu, Jun Yang, Gonghuan Wang, Yanping Liu, Shiwei Li, Yichong Ozgoren, Ayse Abbasoglu Abera, Semaw Ferede Abubakar, Ibrahim Achoki, Tom Adelekan, Ademola Ademi, Zanfina Alemu, Zewdie Aderaw Allen, Peter J AlMazroa, Mohammad AbdulAziz Alvarez, Elena Amankwaa, Adansi A Amare, Azmeraw T Ammar, Walid Anwari, Palwasha Cunningham, Solveig Argeseanu Asad, Majed Masoud Assadi, Reza Banerjee, Amitava Basu, Sanjay Bedi, Neeraj Bekele, Tolesa Bell, Michelle L Bhutta, Zulfiqar Blore, Jed D Basara, Berrak Bora Boufous, Soufiane Breitborde, Nicholas Bruce, Nigel G Bui, Linh Ngoc Carapetis, Jonathan R Cárdenas, Rosario Carpenter, David O Caso, Valeria Castro, Ruben Estanislao Catalá-Lopéz, Ferrán Cavlin, Alanur Che, Xuan Chiang, Peggy Pei-Chia Chowdhury, Rajiv Christophi, Costas A Chuang, Ting-Wu Cirillo, Massimo da Costa Leite, Iuri Courville, Karen J Dandona, Lalit Dandona, Rakhi Davis, Adrian Dayama, Anand Deribe, Kebede Dharmaratne, Samath D Dherani, Mukesh K Dilmen, Uğur Ding, Eric L Edmond, Karen M Ermakov, Sergei Petrovich Farzadfar, Farshad Fereshtehnejad, Seyed-Mohammad Fijabi, Daniel Obadare Foigt, Nataliya Forouzanfar, Mohammad H Garcia, Ana C Geleijnse, Johanna M Gessner, Bradford D Goginashvili, Ketevan Gona, Philimon Goto, Atsushi Gouda, Hebe N Green, Mark A Greenwell, Karen Fern Gugnani, Harish Chander Gupta, Rahul Hamadeh, Randah Ribhi Hammami, Mouhanad Harb, Hilda L Hay, Simon Hedayati, Mohammad T Hosgood, H Dean Hoy, Damian G Idrisov, Bulat T Islami, Farhad Ismayilova, Samaya Jha, Vivekanand Jiang, Guohong Jonas, Jost B Juel, Knud Kabagambe, Edmond Kato Kazi, Dhruv S Kengne, Andre Pascal Kereselidze, Maia Khader, Yousef Saleh Khalifa, Shams Eldin Ali Hassan Khang, Young-Ho Kim, Daniel Kinfu, Yohannes Kinge, Jonas M Kokubo, Yoshihiro Kosen, Soewarta Defo, Barthelemy Kuate Kumar, G Anil Kumar, Kaushalendra Kumar, Ravi B Lai, Taavi Lan, Qing Larsson, Anders Lee, Jong-Tae Leinsalu, Mall Lim, Stephen S Lipshultz, Steven E Logroscino, Giancarlo Lotufo, Paulo A Lunevicius, Raimundas Lyons, Ronan Anthony Ma, Stefan Mahdi, Abbas Ali Marzan, Melvin Barrientos Mashal, Mohammad Taufiq Mazorodze, Tasara T McGrath, John J Memish, Ziad A Mendoza, Walter Mensah, George A Meretoja, Atte Miller, Ted R Mills, Edward J Mohammad, Karzan Abdulmuhsin Mokdad, Ali H Monasta, Lorenzo Montico, Marcella Moore, Ami R Moschandreas, Joanna Msemburi, William T Mueller, Ulrich O Muszynska, Magdalena M Naghavi, Mohsen Naidoo, Kovin S Narayan, KM Venkat Nejjari, Chakib Ng, Marie de Dieu Ngirabega, Jean Nieuwenhuijsen, Mark J Nyakarahuka, Luke Ohkubo, Takayoshi Omer, Saad B Caicedo, Angel J Paternina Wyk, Victoria Pillay-van Pope, Dan Pourmalek, Farshad Prabhakaran, Dorairaj Rahman, Sajjad UR Rana, Saleem M Reilly, Robert Quentin Rojas-Rueda, David Ronfani, Luca Rushton, Lesley Saeedi, Mohammad Yahya Salomon, Joshua A Sampson, Uchechukwu Santos, Itamar S Sawhney, Monika Schmidt, Jürgen C Shakh-Nazarova, Marina She, Jun Sheikhbahaei, Sara Shibuya, Kenji Shin, Hwashin Hyun Shishani, Kawkab Shiue, Ivy Sigfusdottir, Inga Dora Singh, Jasvinder A Skirbekk, Vegard Sliwa, Karen Soshnikov, Sergey S Sposato, Luciano A Stathopoulou, Vasiliki Kalliopi Stroumpoulis, Konstantinos Tabb, Karen M Talongwa, Roberto Tchio Teixeira, Carolina Maria Terkawi, Abdullah Sulieman Thomson, Alan J Thorne-Lyman, Andrew L Toyoshima, Hideaki Dimbuene, Zacharie Tsala Uwaliraye, Parfait Uzun, Selen Begüm Vasankari, Tommi J Vasconcelos, Ana Maria Nogales Vlassov, Vasiliy Victorovich Vollset, Stein Emil Waller, Stephen Wan, Xia Weichenthal, Scott Weiderpass, Elisabete Weintraub, Robert G Westerman, Ronny Wilkinson, James D Williams, Hywel C Yang, Yang C Yentur, Gokalp Kadri Yip, Paul Yonemoto, Naohiro Younis, Mustafa Yu, Chuanhua Jin, Kim Yun El Sayed Zaki, Maysaa Zhu, Shankuan Vos, Theo Lopez, Alan D Murray, Christopher J L Background Remarkable financial and political efforts have been focused on the reduction of child mortality during the past few decades. Timely measurements of levels and trends in under-5 mortality are important to assess progress towards the Millennium Development Goal 4 (MDG 4) target of reduction of child mortality by two thirds from 1990 to 2015, and to identify models of success. Methods We generated updated estimates of child mortality in early neonatal (age 0–6 days), late neonatal (7–28 days), postneonatal (29–364 days), childhood (1–4 years), and under-5 (0–4 years) age groups for 188 countries from 1970 to 2013, with more than 29 000 survey, census, vital registration, and sample registration datapoints. We used Gaussian process regression with adjustments for bias and non-sampling error to synthesise the data for under-5 mortality for each country, and a separate model to estimate mortality for more detailed age groups. We used explanatory mixed effects regression models to assess the association between under-5 mortality and income per person, maternal education, HIV child death rates, secular shifts, and other factors. To quantify the contribution of these different factors and birth numbers to the change in numbers of deaths in under-5 age groups from 1990 to 2013, we used Shapley decomposition. We used estimated rates of change between 2000 and 2013 to construct under-5 mortality rate scenarios out to 2030. Findings We estimated that 6·3 million (95% UI 6·0–6·6) children under-5 died in 2013, a 64% reduction from 17·6 million (17·1–18·1) in 1970. In 2013, child mortality rates ranged from 152·5 per 1000 livebirths (130·6–177·4) in Guinea-Bissau to 2·3 (1·8–2·9) per 1000 in Singapore. The annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2013 ranged from –6·8% to 0·1%. 99 of 188 countries, including 43 of 48 countries in sub-Saharan Africa, had faster decreases in child mortality during 2000–13 than during 1990–2000. In 2013, neonatal deaths accounted for 41·6% of under-5 deaths compared with 37·4% in 1990. Compared with 1990, in 2013, rising numbersof births, especially in sub-Saharan Africa, led to 1·4 million more child deaths, and rising income per person and maternal education led to 0·9 million and 2·2 million fewer deaths, respectively. Changes in secular trends led to 4·2 million fewer deaths. Unexplained factors accounted for only –1% of the change in child deaths. In 30 developing countries, decreases since 2000 have been faster than predicted attributable to income, education, and secular shift alone. Interpretation Only 27 developing countries are expected to achieve MDG 4. Decreases since 2000 in under-5 mortality rates are accelerating in many developing countries, especially in sub-Saharan Africa. The Millennium Declaration and increased development assistance for health might have been a factor in faster decreases in some developing countries. Without further accelerated progress, many countries in west and central Africa will still have high levels of under-5 mortality in 2030. Elsevier 2014-09-13 Article PeerReviewed Wang, Haidong, Liddell, Chelsea A, Coates, Matthew M, Mooney, Meghan D, Levitz, Carly E, Schumacher, Austin E, Apfel, Henry, Iannarone, Marissa, Phillips, Bryan, Lofgren, Katherine T, Sandar, Logan, Dorrington, Rob E, Rakovac, Ivo, Jacobs, Troy A, Liang, Xiaofeng, Zhou, Maigeng, Zhu, Jun, Yang, Gonghuan, Wang, Yanping, Liu, Shiwei, Li, Yichong, Ozgoren, Ayse Abbasoglu, Abera, Semaw Ferede, Abubakar, Ibrahim, Achoki, Tom, Adelekan, Ademola, Ademi, Zanfina, Alemu, Zewdie Aderaw, Allen, Peter J, AlMazroa, Mohammad AbdulAziz, Alvarez, Elena, Amankwaa, Adansi A, Amare, Azmeraw T, Ammar, Walid, Anwari, Palwasha, Cunningham, Solveig Argeseanu, Asad, Majed Masoud, Assadi, Reza, Banerjee, Amitava, Basu, Sanjay, Bedi, Neeraj, Bekele, Tolesa, Bell, Michelle L, Bhutta, Zulfiqar, Blore, Jed D, Basara, Berrak Bora, Boufous, Soufiane, Breitborde, Nicholas, Bruce, Nigel G, Bui, Linh Ngoc, Carapetis, Jonathan R, Cárdenas, Rosario, Carpenter, David O, Caso, Valeria, Castro, Ruben Estanislao, Catalá-Lopéz, Ferrán, Cavlin, Alanur, Che, Xuan, Chiang, Peggy Pei-Chia, Chowdhury, Rajiv, Christophi, Costas A, Chuang, Ting-Wu, Cirillo, Massimo, da Costa Leite, Iuri, Courville, Karen J, Dandona, Lalit, Dandona, Rakhi, Davis, Adrian, Dayama, Anand, Deribe, Kebede, Dharmaratne, Samath D, Dherani, Mukesh K, Dilmen, Uğur, Ding, Eric L, Edmond, Karen M, Ermakov, Sergei Petrovich, Farzadfar, Farshad, Fereshtehnejad, Seyed-Mohammad, Fijabi, Daniel Obadare, Foigt, Nataliya, Forouzanfar, Mohammad H, Garcia, Ana C, Geleijnse, Johanna M, Gessner, Bradford D, Goginashvili, Ketevan, Gona, Philimon, Goto, Atsushi, Gouda, Hebe N, Green, Mark A, Greenwell, Karen Fern, Gugnani, Harish Chander, Gupta, Rahul, Hamadeh, Randah Ribhi, Hammami, Mouhanad, Harb, Hilda L, Hay, Simon, Hedayati, Mohammad T, Hosgood, H Dean, Hoy, Damian G, Idrisov, Bulat T, Islami, Farhad, Ismayilova, Samaya, Jha, Vivekanand, Jiang, Guohong, Jonas, Jost B, Juel, Knud, Kabagambe, Edmond Kato, Kazi, Dhruv S, Kengne, Andre Pascal, Kereselidze, Maia, Khader, Yousef Saleh, Khalifa, Shams Eldin Ali Hassan, Khang, Young-Ho, Kim, Daniel, Kinfu, Yohannes, Kinge, Jonas M, Kokubo, Yoshihiro, Kosen, Soewarta, Defo, Barthelemy Kuate, Kumar, G Anil, Kumar, Kaushalendra, Kumar, Ravi B, Lai, Taavi, Lan, Qing, Larsson, Anders, Lee, Jong-Tae, Leinsalu, Mall, Lim, Stephen S, Lipshultz, Steven E, Logroscino, Giancarlo, Lotufo, Paulo A, Lunevicius, Raimundas, Lyons, Ronan Anthony, Ma, Stefan, Mahdi, Abbas Ali, Marzan, Melvin Barrientos, Mashal, Mohammad Taufiq, Mazorodze, Tasara T, McGrath, John J, Memish, Ziad A, Mendoza, Walter, Mensah, George A, Meretoja, Atte, Miller, Ted R, Mills, Edward J, Mohammad, Karzan Abdulmuhsin, Mokdad, Ali H, Monasta, Lorenzo, Montico, Marcella, Moore, Ami R, Moschandreas, Joanna, Msemburi, William T, Mueller, Ulrich O, Muszynska, Magdalena M, Naghavi, Mohsen, Naidoo, Kovin S, Narayan, KM Venkat, Nejjari, Chakib, Ng, Marie, de Dieu Ngirabega, Jean, Nieuwenhuijsen, Mark J, Nyakarahuka, Luke, Ohkubo, Takayoshi, Omer, Saad B, Caicedo, Angel J Paternina, Wyk, Victoria Pillay-van, Pope, Dan, Pourmalek, Farshad, Prabhakaran, Dorairaj, Rahman, Sajjad UR, Rana, Saleem M, Reilly, Robert Quentin, Rojas-Rueda, David, Ronfani, Luca, Rushton, Lesley, Saeedi, Mohammad Yahya, Salomon, Joshua A, Sampson, Uchechukwu, Santos, Itamar S, Sawhney, Monika, Schmidt, Jürgen C, Shakh-Nazarova, Marina, She, Jun, Sheikhbahaei, Sara, Shibuya, Kenji, Shin, Hwashin Hyun, Shishani, Kawkab, Shiue, Ivy, Sigfusdottir, Inga Dora, Singh, Jasvinder A, Skirbekk, Vegard, Sliwa, Karen, Soshnikov, Sergey S, Sposato, Luciano A, Stathopoulou, Vasiliki Kalliopi, Stroumpoulis, Konstantinos, Tabb, Karen M, Talongwa, Roberto Tchio, Teixeira, Carolina Maria, Terkawi, Abdullah Sulieman, Thomson, Alan J, Thorne-Lyman, Andrew L, Toyoshima, Hideaki, Dimbuene, Zacharie Tsala, Uwaliraye, Parfait, Uzun, Selen Begüm, Vasankari, Tommi J, Vasconcelos, Ana Maria Nogales, Vlassov, Vasiliy Victorovich, Vollset, Stein Emil, Waller, Stephen, Wan, Xia, Weichenthal, Scott, Weiderpass, Elisabete, Weintraub, Robert G, Westerman, Ronny, Wilkinson, James D, Williams, Hywel C, Yang, Yang C, Yentur, Gokalp Kadri, Yip, Paul, Yonemoto, Naohiro, Younis, Mustafa, Yu, Chuanhua, Jin, Kim Yun, El Sayed Zaki, Maysaa, Zhu, Shankuan, Vos, Theo, Lopez, Alan D and Murray, Christopher J L (2014) Global, regional, and national levels of neonatal, infant, and under-5 mortality during 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013. The Lancet, 384 (9947). pp. 957-979. ISSN 1474-547X http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(14)60497-9 doi:10.1016/S0140-6736(14)60497-9 doi:10.1016/S0140-6736(14)60497-9
spellingShingle Wang, Haidong
Liddell, Chelsea A
Coates, Matthew M
Mooney, Meghan D
Levitz, Carly E
Schumacher, Austin E
Apfel, Henry
Iannarone, Marissa
Phillips, Bryan
Lofgren, Katherine T
Sandar, Logan
Dorrington, Rob E
Rakovac, Ivo
Jacobs, Troy A
Liang, Xiaofeng
Zhou, Maigeng
Zhu, Jun
Yang, Gonghuan
Wang, Yanping
Liu, Shiwei
Li, Yichong
Ozgoren, Ayse Abbasoglu
Abera, Semaw Ferede
Abubakar, Ibrahim
Achoki, Tom
Adelekan, Ademola
Ademi, Zanfina
Alemu, Zewdie Aderaw
Allen, Peter J
AlMazroa, Mohammad AbdulAziz
Alvarez, Elena
Amankwaa, Adansi A
Amare, Azmeraw T
Ammar, Walid
Anwari, Palwasha
Cunningham, Solveig Argeseanu
Asad, Majed Masoud
Assadi, Reza
Banerjee, Amitava
Basu, Sanjay
Bedi, Neeraj
Bekele, Tolesa
Bell, Michelle L
Bhutta, Zulfiqar
Blore, Jed D
Basara, Berrak Bora
Boufous, Soufiane
Breitborde, Nicholas
Bruce, Nigel G
Bui, Linh Ngoc
Carapetis, Jonathan R
Cárdenas, Rosario
Carpenter, David O
Caso, Valeria
Castro, Ruben Estanislao
Catalá-Lopéz, Ferrán
Cavlin, Alanur
Che, Xuan
Chiang, Peggy Pei-Chia
Chowdhury, Rajiv
Christophi, Costas A
Chuang, Ting-Wu
Cirillo, Massimo
da Costa Leite, Iuri
Courville, Karen J
Dandona, Lalit
Dandona, Rakhi
Davis, Adrian
Dayama, Anand
Deribe, Kebede
Dharmaratne, Samath D
Dherani, Mukesh K
Dilmen, Uğur
Ding, Eric L
Edmond, Karen M
Ermakov, Sergei Petrovich
Farzadfar, Farshad
Fereshtehnejad, Seyed-Mohammad
Fijabi, Daniel Obadare
Foigt, Nataliya
Forouzanfar, Mohammad H
Garcia, Ana C
Geleijnse, Johanna M
Gessner, Bradford D
Goginashvili, Ketevan
Gona, Philimon
Goto, Atsushi
Gouda, Hebe N
Green, Mark A
Greenwell, Karen Fern
Gugnani, Harish Chander
Gupta, Rahul
Hamadeh, Randah Ribhi
Hammami, Mouhanad
Harb, Hilda L
Hay, Simon
Hedayati, Mohammad T
Hosgood, H Dean
Hoy, Damian G
Idrisov, Bulat T
Islami, Farhad
Ismayilova, Samaya
Jha, Vivekanand
Jiang, Guohong
Jonas, Jost B
Juel, Knud
Kabagambe, Edmond Kato
Kazi, Dhruv S
Kengne, Andre Pascal
Kereselidze, Maia
Khader, Yousef Saleh
Khalifa, Shams Eldin Ali Hassan
Khang, Young-Ho
Kim, Daniel
Kinfu, Yohannes
Kinge, Jonas M
Kokubo, Yoshihiro
Kosen, Soewarta
Defo, Barthelemy Kuate
Kumar, G Anil
Kumar, Kaushalendra
Kumar, Ravi B
Lai, Taavi
Lan, Qing
Larsson, Anders
Lee, Jong-Tae
Leinsalu, Mall
Lim, Stephen S
Lipshultz, Steven E
Logroscino, Giancarlo
Lotufo, Paulo A
Lunevicius, Raimundas
Lyons, Ronan Anthony
Ma, Stefan
Mahdi, Abbas Ali
Marzan, Melvin Barrientos
Mashal, Mohammad Taufiq
Mazorodze, Tasara T
McGrath, John J
Memish, Ziad A
Mendoza, Walter
Mensah, George A
Meretoja, Atte
Miller, Ted R
Mills, Edward J
Mohammad, Karzan Abdulmuhsin
Mokdad, Ali H
Monasta, Lorenzo
Montico, Marcella
Moore, Ami R
Moschandreas, Joanna
Msemburi, William T
Mueller, Ulrich O
Muszynska, Magdalena M
Naghavi, Mohsen
Naidoo, Kovin S
Narayan, KM Venkat
Nejjari, Chakib
Ng, Marie
de Dieu Ngirabega, Jean
Nieuwenhuijsen, Mark J
Nyakarahuka, Luke
Ohkubo, Takayoshi
Omer, Saad B
Caicedo, Angel J Paternina
Wyk, Victoria Pillay-van
Pope, Dan
Pourmalek, Farshad
Prabhakaran, Dorairaj
Rahman, Sajjad UR
Rana, Saleem M
Reilly, Robert Quentin
Rojas-Rueda, David
Ronfani, Luca
Rushton, Lesley
Saeedi, Mohammad Yahya
Salomon, Joshua A
Sampson, Uchechukwu
Santos, Itamar S
Sawhney, Monika
Schmidt, Jürgen C
Shakh-Nazarova, Marina
She, Jun
Sheikhbahaei, Sara
Shibuya, Kenji
Shin, Hwashin Hyun
Shishani, Kawkab
Shiue, Ivy
Sigfusdottir, Inga Dora
Singh, Jasvinder A
Skirbekk, Vegard
Sliwa, Karen
Soshnikov, Sergey S
Sposato, Luciano A
Stathopoulou, Vasiliki Kalliopi
Stroumpoulis, Konstantinos
Tabb, Karen M
Talongwa, Roberto Tchio
Teixeira, Carolina Maria
Terkawi, Abdullah Sulieman
Thomson, Alan J
Thorne-Lyman, Andrew L
Toyoshima, Hideaki
Dimbuene, Zacharie Tsala
Uwaliraye, Parfait
Uzun, Selen Begüm
Vasankari, Tommi J
Vasconcelos, Ana Maria Nogales
Vlassov, Vasiliy Victorovich
Vollset, Stein Emil
Waller, Stephen
Wan, Xia
Weichenthal, Scott
Weiderpass, Elisabete
Weintraub, Robert G
Westerman, Ronny
Wilkinson, James D
Williams, Hywel C
Yang, Yang C
Yentur, Gokalp Kadri
Yip, Paul
Yonemoto, Naohiro
Younis, Mustafa
Yu, Chuanhua
Jin, Kim Yun
El Sayed Zaki, Maysaa
Zhu, Shankuan
Vos, Theo
Lopez, Alan D
Murray, Christopher J L
Global, regional, and national levels of neonatal, infant, and under-5 mortality during 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013
title Global, regional, and national levels of neonatal, infant, and under-5 mortality during 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013
title_full Global, regional, and national levels of neonatal, infant, and under-5 mortality during 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013
title_fullStr Global, regional, and national levels of neonatal, infant, and under-5 mortality during 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013
title_full_unstemmed Global, regional, and national levels of neonatal, infant, and under-5 mortality during 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013
title_short Global, regional, and national levels of neonatal, infant, and under-5 mortality during 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013
title_sort global, regional, and national levels of neonatal, infant, and under-5 mortality during 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the global burden of disease study 2013
url https://eprints.nottingham.ac.uk/33047/
https://eprints.nottingham.ac.uk/33047/
https://eprints.nottingham.ac.uk/33047/