Beyond chance? The persistence of performance in online poker
A major issue in the widespread controversy about the legality of poker and the appropriate taxation of winnings is whether poker should be considered a game of skill or a game of chance. To inform this debate we present an analysis into the role of skill in the performance of online poker players,...
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| Format: | Article |
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Public Library of Science
2015
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| Online Access: | https://eprints.nottingham.ac.uk/30839/ |
| _version_ | 1848794073048023040 |
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| author | Potter van Loon, Rogjer J.D. van den Assem, Martijn J. van Dolder, Dennie |
| author_facet | Potter van Loon, Rogjer J.D. van den Assem, Martijn J. van Dolder, Dennie |
| author_sort | Potter van Loon, Rogjer J.D. |
| building | Nottingham Research Data Repository |
| collection | Online Access |
| description | A major issue in the widespread controversy about the legality of poker and the appropriate taxation of winnings is whether poker should be considered a game of skill or a game of chance. To inform this debate we present an analysis into the role of skill in the performance of online poker players, using a large database with hundreds of millions of player-hand observations from real money ring games at three different stakes levels. We find that players whose earlier profitability was in the top (bottom) deciles perform better (worse) and are substantially more likely to end up in the top (bottom) performance deciles of the following time period. Regression analyses of performance on historical performance and other skill-related proxies provide further evidence for persistence and predictability. Simulations point out that skill dominates chance when performance is measured over 1,500 or more hands of play. |
| first_indexed | 2025-11-14T19:10:23Z |
| format | Article |
| id | nottingham-30839 |
| institution | University of Nottingham Malaysia Campus |
| institution_category | Local University |
| last_indexed | 2025-11-14T19:10:23Z |
| publishDate | 2015 |
| publisher | Public Library of Science |
| recordtype | eprints |
| repository_type | Digital Repository |
| spelling | nottingham-308392020-05-04T17:05:15Z https://eprints.nottingham.ac.uk/30839/ Beyond chance? The persistence of performance in online poker Potter van Loon, Rogjer J.D. van den Assem, Martijn J. van Dolder, Dennie A major issue in the widespread controversy about the legality of poker and the appropriate taxation of winnings is whether poker should be considered a game of skill or a game of chance. To inform this debate we present an analysis into the role of skill in the performance of online poker players, using a large database with hundreds of millions of player-hand observations from real money ring games at three different stakes levels. We find that players whose earlier profitability was in the top (bottom) deciles perform better (worse) and are substantially more likely to end up in the top (bottom) performance deciles of the following time period. Regression analyses of performance on historical performance and other skill-related proxies provide further evidence for persistence and predictability. Simulations point out that skill dominates chance when performance is measured over 1,500 or more hands of play. Public Library of Science 2015-03-02 Article PeerReviewed Potter van Loon, Rogjer J.D., van den Assem, Martijn J. and van Dolder, Dennie (2015) Beyond chance? The persistence of performance in online poker. PLoS ONE, 10 (3). e0115479/1-e0115479/23. ISSN 1932-6203 poker online poker no limit texas hold’em online gambling skill chance game of skill game of chance performance persistence predominance test http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0115479 doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0115479 doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0115479 |
| spellingShingle | poker online poker no limit texas hold’em online gambling skill chance game of skill game of chance performance persistence predominance test Potter van Loon, Rogjer J.D. van den Assem, Martijn J. van Dolder, Dennie Beyond chance? The persistence of performance in online poker |
| title | Beyond chance? The persistence of performance in online poker |
| title_full | Beyond chance? The persistence of performance in online poker |
| title_fullStr | Beyond chance? The persistence of performance in online poker |
| title_full_unstemmed | Beyond chance? The persistence of performance in online poker |
| title_short | Beyond chance? The persistence of performance in online poker |
| title_sort | beyond chance? the persistence of performance in online poker |
| topic | poker online poker no limit texas hold’em online gambling skill chance game of skill game of chance performance persistence predominance test |
| url | https://eprints.nottingham.ac.uk/30839/ https://eprints.nottingham.ac.uk/30839/ https://eprints.nottingham.ac.uk/30839/ |