Long-term Correlations and Rare Events in Futures Volatility

This dissertation analyse the statistics of rare events in the futures market. We focus on the futures absolute return volatilities that are long-term correlated and show the e�ect of long-term memory on the return intervals of extreme events. The heuristic study has been investigated by some eco...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Author: Gong, Bosichan
Format: Dissertation (University of Nottingham only)
Language:English
Published: 2015
Online Access:https://eprints.nottingham.ac.uk/30127/
Description
Summary:This dissertation analyse the statistics of rare events in the futures market. We focus on the futures absolute return volatilities that are long-term correlated and show the e�ect of long-term memory on the return intervals of extreme events. The heuristic study has been investigated by some econophysics methods. The results show that the return intervals distribution contain scaling property and the scaling form is approach to a stretched expo- nential function. The stretching exponent is identical to the long-term correlation exponent �. The long-term correlation has also been found among return intervals and the long-term correlated exponent is close to � as well. This paper (Cizeau et al. 1997) veri�ed results by the futures volatility.