The gravity of China's African export promise
Africa’s largest trade partner, China, criticised for exchanging resources for manufactures, has promised to increase imports and optimise the structure of trade with Africa. Using a gravity model of China’s imports for the years 1995- 2009, we explore potential dynamics for this promise, uniquely a...
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| Format: | Article |
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Wiley
2014
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| Online Access: | https://eprints.nottingham.ac.uk/29340/ |
| _version_ | 1848793766229442560 |
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| author | Johnston, Lauren A. Morgan, Stephen L. Wang, Yuesheng |
| author_facet | Johnston, Lauren A. Morgan, Stephen L. Wang, Yuesheng |
| author_sort | Johnston, Lauren A. |
| building | Nottingham Research Data Repository |
| collection | Online Access |
| description | Africa’s largest trade partner, China, criticised for exchanging resources for manufactures, has promised to increase imports and optimise the structure of trade with Africa. Using a gravity model of China’s imports for the years 1995- 2009, we explore potential dynamics for this promise, uniquely accounting for market economy recognition and Taiwan recognition. The former is associated with increased imports, while the latter effect is ambiguous and statistically insignificant. Comparison of projected against actual imports across three growth-path-aligned economic geography typologies - resource-rich; landlocked and resource-poor; coastal and resource-poor – sets out China’s imports trends in an abstract framework of African export potential. We find not only ‘under’ importing across a majority of resource-poor countries. We also find that current trade policy is the least applicable to these comparatively poor exporters’ trade with China. If the latter are to serve a broader catalytic role in Africa’s regional industrial transformation as compared to the role of coastal and resource poor countries in regional economic transformation in Asia and Latin America, China-Africa trade and investment policies may need additional thinking. |
| first_indexed | 2025-11-14T19:05:31Z |
| format | Article |
| id | nottingham-29340 |
| institution | University of Nottingham Malaysia Campus |
| institution_category | Local University |
| last_indexed | 2025-11-14T19:05:31Z |
| publishDate | 2014 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| recordtype | eprints |
| repository_type | Digital Repository |
| spelling | nottingham-293402020-05-04T16:53:26Z https://eprints.nottingham.ac.uk/29340/ The gravity of China's African export promise Johnston, Lauren A. Morgan, Stephen L. Wang, Yuesheng Africa’s largest trade partner, China, criticised for exchanging resources for manufactures, has promised to increase imports and optimise the structure of trade with Africa. Using a gravity model of China’s imports for the years 1995- 2009, we explore potential dynamics for this promise, uniquely accounting for market economy recognition and Taiwan recognition. The former is associated with increased imports, while the latter effect is ambiguous and statistically insignificant. Comparison of projected against actual imports across three growth-path-aligned economic geography typologies - resource-rich; landlocked and resource-poor; coastal and resource-poor – sets out China’s imports trends in an abstract framework of African export potential. We find not only ‘under’ importing across a majority of resource-poor countries. We also find that current trade policy is the least applicable to these comparatively poor exporters’ trade with China. If the latter are to serve a broader catalytic role in Africa’s regional industrial transformation as compared to the role of coastal and resource poor countries in regional economic transformation in Asia and Latin America, China-Africa trade and investment policies may need additional thinking. Wiley 2014-09-25 Article PeerReviewed Johnston, Lauren A., Morgan, Stephen L. and Wang, Yuesheng (2014) The gravity of China's African export promise. World Economy, 38 (6). pp. 913-934. ISSN 0378-5920 China Africa trade gravity model http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/twec.12229/abstract doi:10.1111/twec.12229 doi:10.1111/twec.12229 |
| spellingShingle | China Africa trade gravity model Johnston, Lauren A. Morgan, Stephen L. Wang, Yuesheng The gravity of China's African export promise |
| title | The gravity of China's African export promise |
| title_full | The gravity of China's African export promise |
| title_fullStr | The gravity of China's African export promise |
| title_full_unstemmed | The gravity of China's African export promise |
| title_short | The gravity of China's African export promise |
| title_sort | gravity of china's african export promise |
| topic | China Africa trade gravity model |
| url | https://eprints.nottingham.ac.uk/29340/ https://eprints.nottingham.ac.uk/29340/ https://eprints.nottingham.ac.uk/29340/ |