Credit Risk Determinants in the Chinese Banking Industry

This thesis studies credit risk determinants in the Chinese banking industry. Generally speaking, bank credit risk is influenced by macroeconomic conditions, counterparty characteristics, and bank-specific factors. Various credit risk assessing models could be used to quantify the effects of differe...

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Main Author: He, Ran
Format: Dissertation (University of Nottingham only)
Language:English
Published: 2010
Online Access:https://eprints.nottingham.ac.uk/23680/
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author He, Ran
author_facet He, Ran
author_sort He, Ran
building Nottingham Research Data Repository
collection Online Access
description This thesis studies credit risk determinants in the Chinese banking industry. Generally speaking, bank credit risk is influenced by macroeconomic conditions, counterparty characteristics, and bank-specific factors. Various credit risk assessing models could be used to quantify the effects of different credit risk determinants. Chinese banks are researching and developing appropriate and advanced credit risk systems to narrow the gap with foreign banks. This paper establishes and estimates a credit risk model for the Chinese banking industry taking into account the data for the period from 2002 to 2009. The empirical results suggest a significant and fairly robust relationship between credit risks and key factors including the microeconomic factors (total loan ratio, loan loss provision, tier 1 capital ratio, and bank size) and macroeconomic factors (gross domestic product (GDP) growth, consumer price index (CPI) growth, and unemployment rate). The author also raises the issue of whether the determinants of non-performing loans are or are not similar between national commercial banks (NCBs) and urban commercial banks (UCBs). By comparing the regression results, it is found that five factors: total loan ratio, tier 1 ratio, bank size, GDP growth and unemployment rate, have major influences on NCB credit risk, meanwhile, UCB credit risk is significantly affected by loan loss provision, tier 1 ratio, CPI growth and unemployment rate.
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spelling nottingham-236802018-01-25T07:07:50Z https://eprints.nottingham.ac.uk/23680/ Credit Risk Determinants in the Chinese Banking Industry He, Ran This thesis studies credit risk determinants in the Chinese banking industry. Generally speaking, bank credit risk is influenced by macroeconomic conditions, counterparty characteristics, and bank-specific factors. Various credit risk assessing models could be used to quantify the effects of different credit risk determinants. Chinese banks are researching and developing appropriate and advanced credit risk systems to narrow the gap with foreign banks. This paper establishes and estimates a credit risk model for the Chinese banking industry taking into account the data for the period from 2002 to 2009. The empirical results suggest a significant and fairly robust relationship between credit risks and key factors including the microeconomic factors (total loan ratio, loan loss provision, tier 1 capital ratio, and bank size) and macroeconomic factors (gross domestic product (GDP) growth, consumer price index (CPI) growth, and unemployment rate). The author also raises the issue of whether the determinants of non-performing loans are or are not similar between national commercial banks (NCBs) and urban commercial banks (UCBs). By comparing the regression results, it is found that five factors: total loan ratio, tier 1 ratio, bank size, GDP growth and unemployment rate, have major influences on NCB credit risk, meanwhile, UCB credit risk is significantly affected by loan loss provision, tier 1 ratio, CPI growth and unemployment rate. 2010 Dissertation (University of Nottingham only) NonPeerReviewed application/pdf en https://eprints.nottingham.ac.uk/23680/2/Ran_He.pdf He, Ran (2010) Credit Risk Determinants in the Chinese Banking Industry. [Dissertation (University of Nottingham only)] (Unpublished)
spellingShingle He, Ran
Credit Risk Determinants in the Chinese Banking Industry
title Credit Risk Determinants in the Chinese Banking Industry
title_full Credit Risk Determinants in the Chinese Banking Industry
title_fullStr Credit Risk Determinants in the Chinese Banking Industry
title_full_unstemmed Credit Risk Determinants in the Chinese Banking Industry
title_short Credit Risk Determinants in the Chinese Banking Industry
title_sort credit risk determinants in the chinese banking industry
url https://eprints.nottingham.ac.uk/23680/