THE MARKET EFFICIENCY OF THE STOCK MARKET IN SERBIA

The main purpose of this study is to test whether the stock market in Serbia is weak-form efficient. This is assessed by employing two different approaches: tests of random walk theory and tests of predictability of technical analysis. In order to test weak-form market efficiency, the Ljung-Box test...

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Main Author: Cvetkovic, Tamara
Format: Dissertation (University of Nottingham only)
Language:English
Published: 2007
Subjects:
Online Access:https://eprints.nottingham.ac.uk/20919/
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author Cvetkovic, Tamara
author_facet Cvetkovic, Tamara
author_sort Cvetkovic, Tamara
building Nottingham Research Data Repository
collection Online Access
description The main purpose of this study is to test whether the stock market in Serbia is weak-form efficient. This is assessed by employing two different approaches: tests of random walk theory and tests of predictability of technical analysis. In order to test weak-form market efficiency, the Ljung-Box test for linear dependence, as well as BDS test for non-linear dependence and ARCH LM test for ARCH effects, the unit root tests, and the Lo and MacKinlay's variance ratio test are applied on the series of daily returns of the two indices on Belgrade stock exchange BELEX15 and BELEXline. The results obtained from these tests indicate that the stock market in Serbia do not follow a random walk. Estimation of the GARCH (1,1) model shows that the returns from BELEX15 can be modelled with this model, while this is not the case for BELEXline. Furthermore, tests of the applicability of technical trading rules reveal that share price changes in the Serbian stock market are predictable. The implication of these results is that the Serbian stock market is not weak-form efficient.
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spelling nottingham-209192018-02-02T20:39:02Z https://eprints.nottingham.ac.uk/20919/ THE MARKET EFFICIENCY OF THE STOCK MARKET IN SERBIA Cvetkovic, Tamara The main purpose of this study is to test whether the stock market in Serbia is weak-form efficient. This is assessed by employing two different approaches: tests of random walk theory and tests of predictability of technical analysis. In order to test weak-form market efficiency, the Ljung-Box test for linear dependence, as well as BDS test for non-linear dependence and ARCH LM test for ARCH effects, the unit root tests, and the Lo and MacKinlay's variance ratio test are applied on the series of daily returns of the two indices on Belgrade stock exchange BELEX15 and BELEXline. The results obtained from these tests indicate that the stock market in Serbia do not follow a random walk. Estimation of the GARCH (1,1) model shows that the returns from BELEX15 can be modelled with this model, while this is not the case for BELEXline. Furthermore, tests of the applicability of technical trading rules reveal that share price changes in the Serbian stock market are predictable. The implication of these results is that the Serbian stock market is not weak-form efficient. 2007 Dissertation (University of Nottingham only) NonPeerReviewed application/pdf en https://eprints.nottingham.ac.uk/20919/1/07MAlixtc4.pdf Cvetkovic, Tamara (2007) THE MARKET EFFICIENCY OF THE STOCK MARKET IN SERBIA. [Dissertation (University of Nottingham only)] (Unpublished) EMH RWH weak-form efficiency
spellingShingle EMH
RWH
weak-form efficiency
Cvetkovic, Tamara
THE MARKET EFFICIENCY OF THE STOCK MARKET IN SERBIA
title THE MARKET EFFICIENCY OF THE STOCK MARKET IN SERBIA
title_full THE MARKET EFFICIENCY OF THE STOCK MARKET IN SERBIA
title_fullStr THE MARKET EFFICIENCY OF THE STOCK MARKET IN SERBIA
title_full_unstemmed THE MARKET EFFICIENCY OF THE STOCK MARKET IN SERBIA
title_short THE MARKET EFFICIENCY OF THE STOCK MARKET IN SERBIA
title_sort market efficiency of the stock market in serbia
topic EMH
RWH
weak-form efficiency
url https://eprints.nottingham.ac.uk/20919/