Testing the Efficiency of the Foreign Exchange Spot Market in Iran

This dissertation aimed at testing the efficiency of the foreign exchange market of Iran in the weak and semi-strong form using data on the black market spot exchange rates between Iranian currency (i.e., Rial) and four major foreign currencies including US Dollar, German Mark/Euro, UK Pound and Jap...

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Main Author: Borhan-Azad, Lida
Format: Dissertation (University of Nottingham only)
Language:English
Published: 2006
Subjects:
Online Access:https://eprints.nottingham.ac.uk/20120/
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author Borhan-Azad, Lida
author_facet Borhan-Azad, Lida
author_sort Borhan-Azad, Lida
building Nottingham Research Data Repository
collection Online Access
description This dissertation aimed at testing the efficiency of the foreign exchange market of Iran in the weak and semi-strong form using data on the black market spot exchange rates between Iranian currency (i.e., Rial) and four major foreign currencies including US Dollar, German Mark/Euro, UK Pound and Japanese Yen. The weak form efficiency is examined by unit root tests including Augmented Dickey-Fuller (1979, 1981) (ADF) test and Phillips-Perron (1988) (PP) test. The results of these tests are consistent with the efficient market hypothesis theory indicating that the exchange rates are non-stationary and follow random walks. This supports the efficiency of the foreign exchange market of Iran in the weak form. However, the semi-strong form of efficiency is tested using tests of cointegration. These tests include the multiple cointegration methodology of Johansen (1991, 1995), Granger (1969) causality tests and variance decomposition analysis. The results of these tests provide evidence that there are long-term as well as short-term predictable relationships among the spot exchange rates. This is against the efficiency of the foreign exchange market of Iran in the semi-strong form. Furthermore, the evidence indicates that US Dollar has a significant role in the foreign exchange market of Iran. These results are meaningful for participants in the foreign exchange market and the government in Iran.
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spelling nottingham-201202018-01-11T17:10:04Z https://eprints.nottingham.ac.uk/20120/ Testing the Efficiency of the Foreign Exchange Spot Market in Iran Borhan-Azad, Lida This dissertation aimed at testing the efficiency of the foreign exchange market of Iran in the weak and semi-strong form using data on the black market spot exchange rates between Iranian currency (i.e., Rial) and four major foreign currencies including US Dollar, German Mark/Euro, UK Pound and Japanese Yen. The weak form efficiency is examined by unit root tests including Augmented Dickey-Fuller (1979, 1981) (ADF) test and Phillips-Perron (1988) (PP) test. The results of these tests are consistent with the efficient market hypothesis theory indicating that the exchange rates are non-stationary and follow random walks. This supports the efficiency of the foreign exchange market of Iran in the weak form. However, the semi-strong form of efficiency is tested using tests of cointegration. These tests include the multiple cointegration methodology of Johansen (1991, 1995), Granger (1969) causality tests and variance decomposition analysis. The results of these tests provide evidence that there are long-term as well as short-term predictable relationships among the spot exchange rates. This is against the efficiency of the foreign exchange market of Iran in the semi-strong form. Furthermore, the evidence indicates that US Dollar has a significant role in the foreign exchange market of Iran. These results are meaningful for participants in the foreign exchange market and the government in Iran. 2006 Dissertation (University of Nottingham only) NonPeerReviewed application/pdf en https://eprints.nottingham.ac.uk/20120/1/05MBABORHANAZAD.pdf Borhan-Azad, Lida (2006) Testing the Efficiency of the Foreign Exchange Spot Market in Iran. [Dissertation (University of Nottingham only)] (Unpublished) efficient market hypothesis foreign exchange market Iran weak form semi-strong form black market unit root tests cointegration tests
spellingShingle efficient market hypothesis
foreign exchange market
Iran
weak form
semi-strong form
black market
unit root tests
cointegration tests
Borhan-Azad, Lida
Testing the Efficiency of the Foreign Exchange Spot Market in Iran
title Testing the Efficiency of the Foreign Exchange Spot Market in Iran
title_full Testing the Efficiency of the Foreign Exchange Spot Market in Iran
title_fullStr Testing the Efficiency of the Foreign Exchange Spot Market in Iran
title_full_unstemmed Testing the Efficiency of the Foreign Exchange Spot Market in Iran
title_short Testing the Efficiency of the Foreign Exchange Spot Market in Iran
title_sort testing the efficiency of the foreign exchange spot market in iran
topic efficient market hypothesis
foreign exchange market
Iran
weak form
semi-strong form
black market
unit root tests
cointegration tests
url https://eprints.nottingham.ac.uk/20120/