Management interventions in dairy herds: exploring within herd uncertainty using an integrated Bayesian model
Knowledge of the efficacy of an intervention for disease control on an individual farm is essential to make good decisions on preventive healthcare, but the uncertainty in outcome associated with undertaking a specific control strategy has rarely been considered in veterinary medicine. The purpose...
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| Format: | Article |
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EDP Sciences
2009
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| Online Access: | https://eprints.nottingham.ac.uk/1272/ |
| _version_ | 1848790573967736832 |
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| author | Green, Martin J. Medley, Graham F. Bradley, Andrew J. Browne, William J. |
| author_facet | Green, Martin J. Medley, Graham F. Bradley, Andrew J. Browne, William J. |
| author_sort | Green, Martin J. |
| building | Nottingham Research Data Repository |
| collection | Online Access |
| description | Knowledge of the efficacy of an intervention for disease control on an individual farm is
essential to make good decisions on preventive healthcare, but the uncertainty in outcome associated with
undertaking a specific control strategy has rarely been considered in veterinary medicine. The purpose of
this research was to explore the uncertainty in change in disease incidence and financial benefit that could
occur on different farms, when two effective farm management interventions are undertaken. Bovine
mastitis was used as an example disease and the research was conducted using data from an intervention
study as prior information within an integrated Bayesian simulation model. Predictions were made of the
reduction in clinical mastitis within 30 days of calving on 52 farms, attributable to the application of two
herd interventions previously reported as effective; rotation of dry cow pasture and differential dry cow
therapy. Results indicated that there were important degrees of uncertainty in the predicted reduction in
clinical mastitis for individual farms when either intervention was undertaken; the magnitude of the 95%
credible intervals for reduced clinical mastitis incidence were substantial and of clinical relevance. The large
uncertainty associated with the predicted reduction in clinical mastitis attributable to the interventions
resulted in important variability in possible financial outcomes for each farm. The uncertainty in outcome
associated with farm control measures illustrates the difficulty facing a veterinary clinician when making an
on-farm decision and highlights the importance of iterative herd health procedures (continual evaluation,
reassessment and adjusted interventions) to optimise health in an individual herd. |
| first_indexed | 2025-11-14T18:14:46Z |
| format | Article |
| id | nottingham-1272 |
| institution | University of Nottingham Malaysia Campus |
| institution_category | Local University |
| last_indexed | 2025-11-14T18:14:46Z |
| publishDate | 2009 |
| publisher | EDP Sciences |
| recordtype | eprints |
| repository_type | Digital Repository |
| spelling | nottingham-12722020-05-04T20:26:23Z https://eprints.nottingham.ac.uk/1272/ Management interventions in dairy herds: exploring within herd uncertainty using an integrated Bayesian model Green, Martin J. Medley, Graham F. Bradley, Andrew J. Browne, William J. Knowledge of the efficacy of an intervention for disease control on an individual farm is essential to make good decisions on preventive healthcare, but the uncertainty in outcome associated with undertaking a specific control strategy has rarely been considered in veterinary medicine. The purpose of this research was to explore the uncertainty in change in disease incidence and financial benefit that could occur on different farms, when two effective farm management interventions are undertaken. Bovine mastitis was used as an example disease and the research was conducted using data from an intervention study as prior information within an integrated Bayesian simulation model. Predictions were made of the reduction in clinical mastitis within 30 days of calving on 52 farms, attributable to the application of two herd interventions previously reported as effective; rotation of dry cow pasture and differential dry cow therapy. Results indicated that there were important degrees of uncertainty in the predicted reduction in clinical mastitis for individual farms when either intervention was undertaken; the magnitude of the 95% credible intervals for reduced clinical mastitis incidence were substantial and of clinical relevance. The large uncertainty associated with the predicted reduction in clinical mastitis attributable to the interventions resulted in important variability in possible financial outcomes for each farm. The uncertainty in outcome associated with farm control measures illustrates the difficulty facing a veterinary clinician when making an on-farm decision and highlights the importance of iterative herd health procedures (continual evaluation, reassessment and adjusted interventions) to optimise health in an individual herd. EDP Sciences 2009-03 Article PeerReviewed Green, Martin J., Medley, Graham F., Bradley, Andrew J. and Browne, William J. (2009) Management interventions in dairy herds: exploring within herd uncertainty using an integrated Bayesian model. Veterinary Research, 41 (2). Article 22. ISSN 0928-4249 disease control dairy cow uncertainty within herd Bayesian model http://dx.doi.org/10.1051/vetres/2009070 doi:10.1051/vetres/2009070 doi:10.1051/vetres/2009070 |
| spellingShingle | disease control dairy cow uncertainty within herd Bayesian model Green, Martin J. Medley, Graham F. Bradley, Andrew J. Browne, William J. Management interventions in dairy herds: exploring within herd uncertainty using an integrated Bayesian model |
| title | Management interventions in dairy herds: exploring within herd uncertainty using an integrated Bayesian model |
| title_full | Management interventions in dairy herds: exploring within herd uncertainty using an integrated Bayesian model |
| title_fullStr | Management interventions in dairy herds: exploring within herd uncertainty using an integrated Bayesian model |
| title_full_unstemmed | Management interventions in dairy herds: exploring within herd uncertainty using an integrated Bayesian model |
| title_short | Management interventions in dairy herds: exploring within herd uncertainty using an integrated Bayesian model |
| title_sort | management interventions in dairy herds: exploring within herd uncertainty using an integrated bayesian model |
| topic | disease control dairy cow uncertainty within herd Bayesian model |
| url | https://eprints.nottingham.ac.uk/1272/ https://eprints.nottingham.ac.uk/1272/ https://eprints.nottingham.ac.uk/1272/ |