Analyzing Factors Influencing Inflation in Vietnam Using SVAR Model: A Case Study
Vietnam's economy has experienced complicated and unpredictable inflationary periods such as 1986. Therefore, the research to forecast inflation is significant in both macro and micro aspects. It not only contributes to improving the efficiency of policy administration, but it is also used towa...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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INTI International University
2024
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| Online Access: | http://eprints.intimal.edu.my/1908/ http://eprints.intimal.edu.my/1908/1/jods2024_01.pdf |
| _version_ | 1848766868293156864 |
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| author | Nghiem, Thi Lich Trinh, Thi Huong Nguyen, Thi Thu Thuy Doan, Thi Ngan Do, Khanh Linh Nguyen, Thi Thuy Linh |
| author_facet | Nghiem, Thi Lich Trinh, Thi Huong Nguyen, Thi Thu Thuy Doan, Thi Ngan Do, Khanh Linh Nguyen, Thi Thuy Linh |
| author_sort | Nghiem, Thi Lich |
| building | INTI Institutional Repository |
| collection | Online Access |
| description | Vietnam's economy has experienced complicated and unpredictable inflationary periods such as 1986. Therefore, the research to forecast inflation is significant in both macro and micro aspects. It not only contributes to improving the efficiency of policy administration, but it is also used towards the goal of macro stability, sustainability of economic growth, and improving the efficiency and competitiveness of enterprises and the economy. There are many quantitative studies on inflation forecasting in the world and Vietnam, notably using the SVAR multivariate models. This paper will use the SVAR model to analyze factors impacting inflation in Vietnam. Based on the data collected from 2016 to 2020, the results show that, in the short term, inflation is mainly affected by its fluctuations in the past, while the world oil price, exchange rate, and interest rate partly explain the volatility of inflation, but the contribution is tiny. On the other hand, in the long term, the influence of past inflation reduces over time, but it still explains the current fluctuation. |
| first_indexed | 2025-11-14T11:57:59Z |
| format | Article |
| id | intimal-1908 |
| institution | INTI International University |
| institution_category | Local University |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2025-11-14T11:57:59Z |
| publishDate | 2024 |
| publisher | INTI International University |
| recordtype | eprints |
| repository_type | Digital Repository |
| spelling | intimal-19082024-02-05T07:19:46Z http://eprints.intimal.edu.my/1908/ Analyzing Factors Influencing Inflation in Vietnam Using SVAR Model: A Case Study Nghiem, Thi Lich Trinh, Thi Huong Nguyen, Thi Thu Thuy Doan, Thi Ngan Do, Khanh Linh Nguyen, Thi Thuy Linh HA Statistics HG Finance QA75 Electronic computers. Computer science Vietnam's economy has experienced complicated and unpredictable inflationary periods such as 1986. Therefore, the research to forecast inflation is significant in both macro and micro aspects. It not only contributes to improving the efficiency of policy administration, but it is also used towards the goal of macro stability, sustainability of economic growth, and improving the efficiency and competitiveness of enterprises and the economy. There are many quantitative studies on inflation forecasting in the world and Vietnam, notably using the SVAR multivariate models. This paper will use the SVAR model to analyze factors impacting inflation in Vietnam. Based on the data collected from 2016 to 2020, the results show that, in the short term, inflation is mainly affected by its fluctuations in the past, while the world oil price, exchange rate, and interest rate partly explain the volatility of inflation, but the contribution is tiny. On the other hand, in the long term, the influence of past inflation reduces over time, but it still explains the current fluctuation. INTI International University 2024-01 Article PeerReviewed text en cc_by_4 http://eprints.intimal.edu.my/1908/1/jods2024_01.pdf Nghiem, Thi Lich and Trinh, Thi Huong and Nguyen, Thi Thu Thuy and Doan, Thi Ngan and Do, Khanh Linh and Nguyen, Thi Thuy Linh (2024) Analyzing Factors Influencing Inflation in Vietnam Using SVAR Model: A Case Study. Journal of Data Science, 2024 (1). pp. 1-7. ISSN 2805-5160 http://ipublishing.intimal.edu.my/jods.html |
| spellingShingle | HA Statistics HG Finance QA75 Electronic computers. Computer science Nghiem, Thi Lich Trinh, Thi Huong Nguyen, Thi Thu Thuy Doan, Thi Ngan Do, Khanh Linh Nguyen, Thi Thuy Linh Analyzing Factors Influencing Inflation in Vietnam Using SVAR Model: A Case Study |
| title | Analyzing Factors Influencing Inflation in Vietnam Using SVAR Model: A Case Study |
| title_full | Analyzing Factors Influencing Inflation in Vietnam Using SVAR Model: A Case Study |
| title_fullStr | Analyzing Factors Influencing Inflation in Vietnam Using SVAR Model: A Case Study |
| title_full_unstemmed | Analyzing Factors Influencing Inflation in Vietnam Using SVAR Model: A Case Study |
| title_short | Analyzing Factors Influencing Inflation in Vietnam Using SVAR Model: A Case Study |
| title_sort | analyzing factors influencing inflation in vietnam using svar model: a case study |
| topic | HA Statistics HG Finance QA75 Electronic computers. Computer science |
| url | http://eprints.intimal.edu.my/1908/ http://eprints.intimal.edu.my/1908/ http://eprints.intimal.edu.my/1908/1/jods2024_01.pdf |