Forecasting patient admission in orthopedic clinic at a hospital in Kuantan using autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models
This study is an attempt to examine empirically the best ARIMA model for forecasting. The monthly time series data routinely-collected at Orthopedic clinic from January 2013 until June 2018 have been used for this purpose. At first the stationarity condition of the data series is observed by ACF and...
| Main Authors: | , |
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| Format: | Proceeding Paper |
| Language: | English English |
| Published: |
IOP Publishing Ltd
2020
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://irep.iium.edu.my/81910/ http://irep.iium.edu.my/81910/13/81910_Forecasting%20patient%20admission%20in%20orthopedic%20clinic%20at%20a%20hospital.pdf http://irep.iium.edu.my/81910/14/81910_Forecasting%20patient%20admission%20in%20orthopedic%20clinic%20at%20a%20hospital%20SCOPUS.pdf |
| _version_ | 1848789204285259776 |
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| author | Mohamed, Bahari Mohamad, Meriati |
| author_facet | Mohamed, Bahari Mohamad, Meriati |
| author_sort | Mohamed, Bahari |
| building | IIUM Repository |
| collection | Online Access |
| description | This study is an attempt to examine empirically the best ARIMA model for forecasting. The monthly time series data routinely-collected at Orthopedic clinic from January 2013 until June 2018 have been used for this purpose. At first the stationarity condition of the data series is observed by ACF and PACF plots, then checked using the Ljung-Box-Pierce Qstatistic. It has been found that the monthly time series data of the Orthopedic clinic are stationary. The best ARIMA model has been selected by using the MAPE. To select the best ARIMA model the data split into two periods, viz. estimation period and validation period. The model for which the values of MAPE are smallest is considered as the best model. Hence, ARIMA (1, 0, 0) is found as the best model for forecasting the Orthopedic clinic data series. The out of sample forecast by using ARIMA (1, 0, 0) model indicated a fluctuation of monthly orthopedic patients demand, from lowest was 294 and the highest was 299 patients that could receive treatment from the clinic in a month. |
| first_indexed | 2025-11-14T17:53:00Z |
| format | Proceeding Paper |
| id | iium-81910 |
| institution | International Islamic University Malaysia |
| institution_category | Local University |
| language | English English |
| last_indexed | 2025-11-14T17:53:00Z |
| publishDate | 2020 |
| publisher | IOP Publishing Ltd |
| recordtype | eprints |
| repository_type | Digital Repository |
| spelling | iium-819102021-01-19T21:05:25Z http://irep.iium.edu.my/81910/ Forecasting patient admission in orthopedic clinic at a hospital in Kuantan using autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models Mohamed, Bahari Mohamad, Meriati QC Physics This study is an attempt to examine empirically the best ARIMA model for forecasting. The monthly time series data routinely-collected at Orthopedic clinic from January 2013 until June 2018 have been used for this purpose. At first the stationarity condition of the data series is observed by ACF and PACF plots, then checked using the Ljung-Box-Pierce Qstatistic. It has been found that the monthly time series data of the Orthopedic clinic are stationary. The best ARIMA model has been selected by using the MAPE. To select the best ARIMA model the data split into two periods, viz. estimation period and validation period. The model for which the values of MAPE are smallest is considered as the best model. Hence, ARIMA (1, 0, 0) is found as the best model for forecasting the Orthopedic clinic data series. The out of sample forecast by using ARIMA (1, 0, 0) model indicated a fluctuation of monthly orthopedic patients demand, from lowest was 294 and the highest was 299 patients that could receive treatment from the clinic in a month. IOP Publishing Ltd 2020-06-17 Proceeding Paper PeerReviewed application/pdf en http://irep.iium.edu.my/81910/13/81910_Forecasting%20patient%20admission%20in%20orthopedic%20clinic%20at%20a%20hospital.pdf application/pdf en http://irep.iium.edu.my/81910/14/81910_Forecasting%20patient%20admission%20in%20orthopedic%20clinic%20at%20a%20hospital%20SCOPUS.pdf Mohamed, Bahari and Mohamad, Meriati (2020) Forecasting patient admission in orthopedic clinic at a hospital in Kuantan using autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models. In: 2nd Joint International Conference on Emerging Computing Technology and Sports (JICETS 2019), 25th-27th November 2019, Bandung, Indonesia. https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1742-6596/1529/5/052090/pdf doi:10.1088/1742-6596/1529/5/052090 |
| spellingShingle | QC Physics Mohamed, Bahari Mohamad, Meriati Forecasting patient admission in orthopedic clinic at a hospital in Kuantan using autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models |
| title | Forecasting patient admission in orthopedic clinic at a hospital in Kuantan using autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models |
| title_full | Forecasting patient admission in orthopedic clinic at a hospital in Kuantan using autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models |
| title_fullStr | Forecasting patient admission in orthopedic clinic at a hospital in Kuantan using autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models |
| title_full_unstemmed | Forecasting patient admission in orthopedic clinic at a hospital in Kuantan using autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models |
| title_short | Forecasting patient admission in orthopedic clinic at a hospital in Kuantan using autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models |
| title_sort | forecasting patient admission in orthopedic clinic at a hospital in kuantan using autoregressive integrated moving average (arima) models |
| topic | QC Physics |
| url | http://irep.iium.edu.my/81910/ http://irep.iium.edu.my/81910/ http://irep.iium.edu.my/81910/ http://irep.iium.edu.my/81910/13/81910_Forecasting%20patient%20admission%20in%20orthopedic%20clinic%20at%20a%20hospital.pdf http://irep.iium.edu.my/81910/14/81910_Forecasting%20patient%20admission%20in%20orthopedic%20clinic%20at%20a%20hospital%20SCOPUS.pdf |