Forecasting demand: development of a fuzzy growth adjusted holt-winters approach
Irrespective of the type of items manufactured by an industry, environment is now becoming progressively more and more competitive than the past few decades. To sustain in this severe competition, companies have no choice but to manage their operations optimally and in this respect the importance...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English English |
| Published: |
Trans Tech Publications, Switzerland
2014
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://irep.iium.edu.my/41840/ http://irep.iium.edu.my/41840/1/%2329_AMM.529.402_Feb_2014.pdf http://irep.iium.edu.my/41840/4/41840_Forecasting%20demand_Scopus.pdf |
| _version_ | 1848782179533848576 |
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| author | M., Abdesselam Karim, A.N. Mustafizul Kays, H. M. Emrul Sarker, R. A. |
| author_facet | M., Abdesselam Karim, A.N. Mustafizul Kays, H. M. Emrul Sarker, R. A. |
| author_sort | M., Abdesselam |
| building | IIUM Repository |
| collection | Online Access |
| description | Irrespective of the type of items manufactured by an industry, environment is now
becoming progressively more and more competitive than the past few decades. To sustain in this
severe competition, companies have no choice but to manage their operations optimally and in this
respect the importance of more accurate demand prediction cannot be exaggerated. This research
presents a forecasting approach tailoring the multiplicative Holt-Winters method with growth
adjustment through incorporation of fuzzy logic. The growth parameter of the time series values is
adjusted with the conventional Holt-Winters method and tested for predicting the real-life demand
of transformer tank experienced by a local company. The result obtained by applying the new
approach shows a significant improvement in the accuracy of the forecasted demand and sheds light
on further enhancement of the proposed method by optimizing other time series parameters through
fuzzy logic application for possible application in prediction of demand having trend, seasonal and
cyclical changes. |
| first_indexed | 2025-11-14T16:01:21Z |
| format | Article |
| id | iium-41840 |
| institution | International Islamic University Malaysia |
| institution_category | Local University |
| language | English English |
| last_indexed | 2025-11-14T16:01:21Z |
| publishDate | 2014 |
| publisher | Trans Tech Publications, Switzerland |
| recordtype | eprints |
| repository_type | Digital Repository |
| spelling | iium-418402017-09-07T07:52:04Z http://irep.iium.edu.my/41840/ Forecasting demand: development of a fuzzy growth adjusted holt-winters approach M., Abdesselam Karim, A.N. Mustafizul Kays, H. M. Emrul Sarker, R. A. T57 Applied mathematics. Quantitative methods. Operation research. System analysis TA190 Management of engineering works TS155 Production management Irrespective of the type of items manufactured by an industry, environment is now becoming progressively more and more competitive than the past few decades. To sustain in this severe competition, companies have no choice but to manage their operations optimally and in this respect the importance of more accurate demand prediction cannot be exaggerated. This research presents a forecasting approach tailoring the multiplicative Holt-Winters method with growth adjustment through incorporation of fuzzy logic. The growth parameter of the time series values is adjusted with the conventional Holt-Winters method and tested for predicting the real-life demand of transformer tank experienced by a local company. The result obtained by applying the new approach shows a significant improvement in the accuracy of the forecasted demand and sheds light on further enhancement of the proposed method by optimizing other time series parameters through fuzzy logic application for possible application in prediction of demand having trend, seasonal and cyclical changes. Trans Tech Publications, Switzerland 2014 Article PeerReviewed application/pdf en http://irep.iium.edu.my/41840/1/%2329_AMM.529.402_Feb_2014.pdf application/pdf en http://irep.iium.edu.my/41840/4/41840_Forecasting%20demand_Scopus.pdf M., Abdesselam and Karim, A.N. Mustafizul and Kays, H. M. Emrul and Sarker, R. A. (2014) Forecasting demand: development of a fuzzy growth adjusted holt-winters approach. Advanced Materials Research, 529. pp. 402-407. ISSN 1022-6680 http://www.ttp.net/1660-9336.html doi:10.4028/www.scientific.net/AMM.529.402 |
| spellingShingle | T57 Applied mathematics. Quantitative methods. Operation research. System analysis TA190 Management of engineering works TS155 Production management M., Abdesselam Karim, A.N. Mustafizul Kays, H. M. Emrul Sarker, R. A. Forecasting demand: development of a fuzzy growth adjusted holt-winters approach |
| title | Forecasting demand: development of a fuzzy growth adjusted holt-winters approach |
| title_full | Forecasting demand: development of a fuzzy growth adjusted holt-winters approach |
| title_fullStr | Forecasting demand: development of a fuzzy growth adjusted holt-winters approach |
| title_full_unstemmed | Forecasting demand: development of a fuzzy growth adjusted holt-winters approach |
| title_short | Forecasting demand: development of a fuzzy growth adjusted holt-winters approach |
| title_sort | forecasting demand: development of a fuzzy growth adjusted holt-winters approach |
| topic | T57 Applied mathematics. Quantitative methods. Operation research. System analysis TA190 Management of engineering works TS155 Production management |
| url | http://irep.iium.edu.my/41840/ http://irep.iium.edu.my/41840/ http://irep.iium.edu.my/41840/ http://irep.iium.edu.my/41840/1/%2329_AMM.529.402_Feb_2014.pdf http://irep.iium.edu.my/41840/4/41840_Forecasting%20demand_Scopus.pdf |