How an Export Boom Affects Unemployment

Does trade affect the equilibrium rate of unemployment? To answer this question, we propose a small open economy model that incorporates realistic features of labour markets. The model predicts that a sustained improvement in the terms of trade lowers unemployment. We test this prediction for the ca...

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Main Authors: Gaston, Noel, Rajaguru, Gulasekaran
Format: Journal Article
Published: Elsevier BV * North-Holland 2013
Subjects:
Online Access:http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11937/9873
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author Gaston, Noel
Rajaguru, Gulasekaran
author_facet Gaston, Noel
Rajaguru, Gulasekaran
author_sort Gaston, Noel
building Curtin Institutional Repository
collection Online Access
description Does trade affect the equilibrium rate of unemployment? To answer this question, we propose a small open economy model that incorporates realistic features of labour markets. The model predicts that a sustained improvement in the terms of trade lowers unemployment. We test this prediction for the case of Australia, an economy that is subject to large terms of trade movements. We use a novel technique to estimate the structural model based on a combination of traditional econometric procedures and the calibration of time-varying parameters. Both reduced form and the structural estimates reveal strong evidence that higher export prices, capital accumulation in tradeable goods industries and lower unemployment benefits reduce the equilibrium unemployment rate.
first_indexed 2025-11-14T06:27:29Z
format Journal Article
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institution Curtin University Malaysia
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last_indexed 2025-11-14T06:27:29Z
publishDate 2013
publisher Elsevier BV * North-Holland
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spelling curtin-20.500.11937-98732018-03-29T09:05:55Z How an Export Boom Affects Unemployment Gaston, Noel Rajaguru, Gulasekaran Dutch disease Equilibrium unemployment rate Calibration Structural model Does trade affect the equilibrium rate of unemployment? To answer this question, we propose a small open economy model that incorporates realistic features of labour markets. The model predicts that a sustained improvement in the terms of trade lowers unemployment. We test this prediction for the case of Australia, an economy that is subject to large terms of trade movements. We use a novel technique to estimate the structural model based on a combination of traditional econometric procedures and the calibration of time-varying parameters. Both reduced form and the structural estimates reveal strong evidence that higher export prices, capital accumulation in tradeable goods industries and lower unemployment benefits reduce the equilibrium unemployment rate. 2013 Journal Article http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11937/9873 10.1016/j.econmod.2012.09.007 Elsevier BV * North-Holland restricted
spellingShingle Dutch disease
Equilibrium unemployment rate
Calibration
Structural model
Gaston, Noel
Rajaguru, Gulasekaran
How an Export Boom Affects Unemployment
title How an Export Boom Affects Unemployment
title_full How an Export Boom Affects Unemployment
title_fullStr How an Export Boom Affects Unemployment
title_full_unstemmed How an Export Boom Affects Unemployment
title_short How an Export Boom Affects Unemployment
title_sort how an export boom affects unemployment
topic Dutch disease
Equilibrium unemployment rate
Calibration
Structural model
url http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11937/9873