COVID-19 vaccine coverage targets to inform reopening plans in a low incidence setting

COVID-19 vaccine coverage targets to inform reopening plans in a low incidence setting

Since the emergence of SARS-CoV-2 in 2019 through to mid-2021, much of the Australian population lived in a COVID-19-free environment. This followed the broadly successful implementation of a strong suppression strategy, including international border closures. With the availability of COVID-19 vacc...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: Conway, E., Walker, C.R., Baker, C., Lydeamore, M.J., Ryan, G.E., Campbell, T., Miller, J.C., Rebuli, N., Yeung, M., Kabashima, G., Geard, N., Wood, J., McCaw, J.M., McVernon, J., Golding, Nick, Price, D.J., Shearer, F.M.
Format: Journal Article
Language:English
Published: 2023
Subjects:
COVID-19
SARS-CoV-2
mathematical modelling
pandemic response
public health policy
vaccination strategy
Adult
Humans
COVID-19 Vaccines
Incidence
Australia
Online Access:http://purl.org/au-research/grants/arc/DE180100635
http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11937/96173
Description
Summary:Since the emergence of SARS-CoV-2 in 2019 through to mid-2021, much of the Australian population lived in a COVID-19-free environment. This followed the broadly successful implementation of a strong suppression strategy, including international border closures. With the availability of COVID-19 vaccines in early 2021, the national government sought to transition from a state of minimal incidence and strong suppression activities to one of high vaccine coverage and reduced restrictions but with still-manageable transmission. This transition is articulated in the national 're-opening' plan released in July 2021. Here, we report on the dynamic modelling study that directly informed policies within the national re-opening plan including the identification of priority age groups for vaccination, target vaccine coverage thresholds and the anticipated requirements for continued public health measures - assuming circulation of the Delta SARS-CoV-2 variant. Our findings demonstrated that adult vaccine coverage needed to be at least 60% to minimize public health and clinical impacts following the establishment of community transmission. They also supported the need for continued application of test-trace-isolate-quarantine and social measures during the vaccine roll-out phase and beyond.

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