Modelling the impacts of volumetric and minimum unit pricing for alcohol on social harms in Australia
Aims: Alcohol pricing policies may reduce alcohol-related harms, yet little work has been done to model their effectiveness beyond health outcomes especially in Australia. We aim to estimate the impacts of four taxation and minimum unit pricing (MUP) interventions on selected social harms across sex...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Journal Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
2024
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| Online Access: | http://purl.org/au-research/grants/arc/FT210100656 http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11937/96038 |
| _version_ | 1848766079830065152 |
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| author | Marzan, M.B. Callinan, S. Livingston, Michael Jiang, H. |
| author_facet | Marzan, M.B. Callinan, S. Livingston, Michael Jiang, H. |
| author_sort | Marzan, M.B. |
| building | Curtin Institutional Repository |
| collection | Online Access |
| description | Aims: Alcohol pricing policies may reduce alcohol-related harms, yet little work has been done to model their effectiveness beyond health outcomes especially in Australia. We aim to estimate the impacts of four taxation and minimum unit pricing (MUP) interventions on selected social harms across sex and age subgroups in Australia. Methods: We used econometrics and epidemiologic simulations using demand elasticity and risk measures. We modelled four policies including (A) uniform excise rates (UER) (based on alcohol units) (B) MUP $1.30 on all alcoholic beverages (C) UER + 10 % (D) MUP$ 1.50. People who consumed alcohol were classified as (a) moderate (≤ 14 Australian standard drinks (SDs) per week) (b) Hazardous (15–42 SDs per week for men and 14–35 ASDs for women) and (c) Harmful (> 42 SDs per week for men and > 35 ASDs for women). Outcomes were sickness absence, sickness presenteeism, unemployment, antisocial behaviours, and police-reported crimes. We used relative risk functions from meta-analysis, cohort study, cross-sectional survey, or attributable fractions from routine criminal records. We applied the potential impact fraction to estimate the reduction in social harms by age group and sex after implementation of pricing policies. Results: All four modelled pricing policies resulted in a decrease in the overall mean baseline of current alcohol consumption, primarily due to fewer people drinking harmful amounts. These policies also reduced the total number of crimes and workplace harms compared to the current taxation system. These reductions were consistent across all age and sex subgroups. Specifically, sickness absence decreased by 0.2–0.4 %, alcohol-related sickness presenteeism by 7–9 %, unemployment by 0.5–0.7 %, alcohol-related antisocial behaviours by 7.3–11.1 %, and crimes by 4–6 %. Of all the policies, the implementation of a $1.50 MUP resulted in the largest reductions across most outcome measures. Conclusion: Our results highlight that alcohol pricing policies can address the burden of social harms in Australia. However, pricing policies should just form part of a comprehensive alcohol policy approach along with other proven policy measures such as bans on aggressive marketing of alcoholic products and enforcing the restrictions on the availability of alcohol through outlet density regulation or reduced hours of sale to have a more impact on social harms. |
| first_indexed | 2025-11-14T11:45:27Z |
| format | Journal Article |
| id | curtin-20.500.11937-96038 |
| institution | Curtin University Malaysia |
| institution_category | Local University |
| language | eng |
| last_indexed | 2025-11-14T11:45:27Z |
| publishDate | 2024 |
| recordtype | eprints |
| repository_type | Digital Repository |
| spelling | curtin-20.500.11937-960382024-11-07T00:43:14Z Modelling the impacts of volumetric and minimum unit pricing for alcohol on social harms in Australia Marzan, M.B. Callinan, S. Livingston, Michael Jiang, H. Alcohol consumption Alcohol taxation Minimum unit price Pricing policy Social harms Humans Male Female Alcoholic Beverages Australia Adult Alcohol Drinking Middle Aged Young Adult Taxes Adolescent Commerce Crime Aged Models, Econometric Costs and Cost Analysis Age Factors Harm Reduction Sex Factors Humans Models, Econometric Alcohol Drinking Harm Reduction Age Factors Sex Factors Crime Commerce Alcoholic Beverages Adolescent Adult Aged Middle Aged Costs and Cost Analysis Taxes Australia Female Male Young Adult Aims: Alcohol pricing policies may reduce alcohol-related harms, yet little work has been done to model their effectiveness beyond health outcomes especially in Australia. We aim to estimate the impacts of four taxation and minimum unit pricing (MUP) interventions on selected social harms across sex and age subgroups in Australia. Methods: We used econometrics and epidemiologic simulations using demand elasticity and risk measures. We modelled four policies including (A) uniform excise rates (UER) (based on alcohol units) (B) MUP $1.30 on all alcoholic beverages (C) UER + 10 % (D) MUP$ 1.50. People who consumed alcohol were classified as (a) moderate (≤ 14 Australian standard drinks (SDs) per week) (b) Hazardous (15–42 SDs per week for men and 14–35 ASDs for women) and (c) Harmful (> 42 SDs per week for men and > 35 ASDs for women). Outcomes were sickness absence, sickness presenteeism, unemployment, antisocial behaviours, and police-reported crimes. We used relative risk functions from meta-analysis, cohort study, cross-sectional survey, or attributable fractions from routine criminal records. We applied the potential impact fraction to estimate the reduction in social harms by age group and sex after implementation of pricing policies. Results: All four modelled pricing policies resulted in a decrease in the overall mean baseline of current alcohol consumption, primarily due to fewer people drinking harmful amounts. These policies also reduced the total number of crimes and workplace harms compared to the current taxation system. These reductions were consistent across all age and sex subgroups. Specifically, sickness absence decreased by 0.2–0.4 %, alcohol-related sickness presenteeism by 7–9 %, unemployment by 0.5–0.7 %, alcohol-related antisocial behaviours by 7.3–11.1 %, and crimes by 4–6 %. Of all the policies, the implementation of a $1.50 MUP resulted in the largest reductions across most outcome measures. Conclusion: Our results highlight that alcohol pricing policies can address the burden of social harms in Australia. However, pricing policies should just form part of a comprehensive alcohol policy approach along with other proven policy measures such as bans on aggressive marketing of alcoholic products and enforcing the restrictions on the availability of alcohol through outlet density regulation or reduced hours of sale to have a more impact on social harms. 2024 Journal Article http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11937/96038 10.1016/j.drugpo.2024.104502 eng http://purl.org/au-research/grants/arc/FT210100656 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ fulltext |
| spellingShingle | Alcohol consumption Alcohol taxation Minimum unit price Pricing policy Social harms Humans Male Female Alcoholic Beverages Australia Adult Alcohol Drinking Middle Aged Young Adult Taxes Adolescent Commerce Crime Aged Models, Econometric Costs and Cost Analysis Age Factors Harm Reduction Sex Factors Humans Models, Econometric Alcohol Drinking Harm Reduction Age Factors Sex Factors Crime Commerce Alcoholic Beverages Adolescent Adult Aged Middle Aged Costs and Cost Analysis Taxes Australia Female Male Young Adult Marzan, M.B. Callinan, S. Livingston, Michael Jiang, H. Modelling the impacts of volumetric and minimum unit pricing for alcohol on social harms in Australia |
| title | Modelling the impacts of volumetric and minimum unit pricing for alcohol on social harms in Australia |
| title_full | Modelling the impacts of volumetric and minimum unit pricing for alcohol on social harms in Australia |
| title_fullStr | Modelling the impacts of volumetric and minimum unit pricing for alcohol on social harms in Australia |
| title_full_unstemmed | Modelling the impacts of volumetric and minimum unit pricing for alcohol on social harms in Australia |
| title_short | Modelling the impacts of volumetric and minimum unit pricing for alcohol on social harms in Australia |
| title_sort | modelling the impacts of volumetric and minimum unit pricing for alcohol on social harms in australia |
| topic | Alcohol consumption Alcohol taxation Minimum unit price Pricing policy Social harms Humans Male Female Alcoholic Beverages Australia Adult Alcohol Drinking Middle Aged Young Adult Taxes Adolescent Commerce Crime Aged Models, Econometric Costs and Cost Analysis Age Factors Harm Reduction Sex Factors Humans Models, Econometric Alcohol Drinking Harm Reduction Age Factors Sex Factors Crime Commerce Alcoholic Beverages Adolescent Adult Aged Middle Aged Costs and Cost Analysis Taxes Australia Female Male Young Adult |
| url | http://purl.org/au-research/grants/arc/FT210100656 http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11937/96038 |