Gestational age as a predictor for subsequent preterm birth in New South Wales, Australia
Background: There is no validated evidence base on predictive ability and absolute risk of preterm birth by gestational age of the previous pregnancy. Methods: We conducted a retrospective cohort study of mothers who gave birth to their first two children in New South Wales, 1994–2016 (N = 517,558 m...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Journal Article |
| Language: | English |
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BMC
2021
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| Online Access: | http://purl.org/au-research/grants/nhmrc/1099655 http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11937/93227 |
| _version_ | 1848765713027694592 |
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| author | Pereira, Gavin Regan, Annette Wong, Kingsley Tessema, Gizachew |
| author_facet | Pereira, Gavin Regan, Annette Wong, Kingsley Tessema, Gizachew |
| author_sort | Pereira, Gavin |
| building | Curtin Institutional Repository |
| collection | Online Access |
| description | Background: There is no validated evidence base on predictive ability and absolute risk of preterm birth by gestational age of the previous pregnancy. Methods: We conducted a retrospective cohort study of mothers who gave birth to their first two children in New South Wales, 1994–2016 (N = 517,558 mothers). For each week of final gestational age of the first birth, we calculated relative and absolute risks of subsequent preterm birth. Results: For mothers whose first birth had a gestational age of 22 to 30 weeks the absolute risks of clinically significant preterm second birth (before 28, 32, and 34 weeks) were all less than 14%. For all gestational ages of the first child the median gestational ages of the second child were all at least 38 weeks. Sensitivity and positive predictive values were all below 30%. Conclusion: Previous gestational age alone is a poor predictor of subsequent risk of preterm birth. |
| first_indexed | 2025-11-14T11:39:37Z |
| format | Journal Article |
| id | curtin-20.500.11937-93227 |
| institution | Curtin University Malaysia |
| institution_category | Local University |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2025-11-14T11:39:37Z |
| publishDate | 2021 |
| publisher | BMC |
| recordtype | eprints |
| repository_type | Digital Repository |
| spelling | curtin-20.500.11937-932272023-10-09T03:26:49Z Gestational age as a predictor for subsequent preterm birth in New South Wales, Australia Pereira, Gavin Regan, Annette Wong, Kingsley Tessema, Gizachew Science & Technology Life Sciences & Biomedicine Obstetrics & Gynecology Premature birth Gestational age Recurrence Predictive value of tests Sensitivity and specificity RECURRENCE RISK HEALTH Gestational age Predictive value of tests Premature birth Recurrence Sensitivity and specificity Adult Australia Birth Order Female Gestational Age Gravidity Humans Infant, Newborn New South Wales Parity Pregnancy Premature Birth Retrospective Studies Risk Factors Young Adult Humans Premature Birth Risk Factors Retrospective Studies Birth Order Gravidity Parity Gestational Age Pregnancy Adult Infant, Newborn Australia New South Wales Female Young Adult Background: There is no validated evidence base on predictive ability and absolute risk of preterm birth by gestational age of the previous pregnancy. Methods: We conducted a retrospective cohort study of mothers who gave birth to their first two children in New South Wales, 1994–2016 (N = 517,558 mothers). For each week of final gestational age of the first birth, we calculated relative and absolute risks of subsequent preterm birth. Results: For mothers whose first birth had a gestational age of 22 to 30 weeks the absolute risks of clinically significant preterm second birth (before 28, 32, and 34 weeks) were all less than 14%. For all gestational ages of the first child the median gestational ages of the second child were all at least 38 weeks. Sensitivity and positive predictive values were all below 30%. Conclusion: Previous gestational age alone is a poor predictor of subsequent risk of preterm birth. 2021 Journal Article http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11937/93227 10.1186/s12884-021-04084-x English http://purl.org/au-research/grants/nhmrc/1099655 http://purl.org/au-research/grants/nhmrc/1173991 http://purl.org/au-research/grants/nhmrc/1195716 http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ BMC fulltext |
| spellingShingle | Science & Technology Life Sciences & Biomedicine Obstetrics & Gynecology Premature birth Gestational age Recurrence Predictive value of tests Sensitivity and specificity RECURRENCE RISK HEALTH Gestational age Predictive value of tests Premature birth Recurrence Sensitivity and specificity Adult Australia Birth Order Female Gestational Age Gravidity Humans Infant, Newborn New South Wales Parity Pregnancy Premature Birth Retrospective Studies Risk Factors Young Adult Humans Premature Birth Risk Factors Retrospective Studies Birth Order Gravidity Parity Gestational Age Pregnancy Adult Infant, Newborn Australia New South Wales Female Young Adult Pereira, Gavin Regan, Annette Wong, Kingsley Tessema, Gizachew Gestational age as a predictor for subsequent preterm birth in New South Wales, Australia |
| title | Gestational age as a predictor for subsequent preterm birth in New South Wales, Australia |
| title_full | Gestational age as a predictor for subsequent preterm birth in New South Wales, Australia |
| title_fullStr | Gestational age as a predictor for subsequent preterm birth in New South Wales, Australia |
| title_full_unstemmed | Gestational age as a predictor for subsequent preterm birth in New South Wales, Australia |
| title_short | Gestational age as a predictor for subsequent preterm birth in New South Wales, Australia |
| title_sort | gestational age as a predictor for subsequent preterm birth in new south wales, australia |
| topic | Science & Technology Life Sciences & Biomedicine Obstetrics & Gynecology Premature birth Gestational age Recurrence Predictive value of tests Sensitivity and specificity RECURRENCE RISK HEALTH Gestational age Predictive value of tests Premature birth Recurrence Sensitivity and specificity Adult Australia Birth Order Female Gestational Age Gravidity Humans Infant, Newborn New South Wales Parity Pregnancy Premature Birth Retrospective Studies Risk Factors Young Adult Humans Premature Birth Risk Factors Retrospective Studies Birth Order Gravidity Parity Gestational Age Pregnancy Adult Infant, Newborn Australia New South Wales Female Young Adult |
| url | http://purl.org/au-research/grants/nhmrc/1099655 http://purl.org/au-research/grants/nhmrc/1099655 http://purl.org/au-research/grants/nhmrc/1099655 http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11937/93227 |