Predicting responses of geo-ecological carbonate reef systems to climate change: A conceptual model and review

Coral reefs provide critical ecological and geomorphic (e.g. sediment production for reef-fronted shoreline maintenance) services, which interact in complex and dynamic ways. These services are under threat from climate change, requiring dynamic modelling approaches that predict how reef systems wil...

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Main Authors: Browne, Nicola, Cuttler, M., Moon, K., Morgan, K., Ross, C.L., Castro-Sanguino, C., Kennedy, E., Harris, D., Barnes, P., Bauman, A., Beetham, E., Bonesso, J., Bozec, Y.M., Cornwall, C., Dee, S., Decarlo, T., D'Olivo, J.P., Doropoulos, C., Evans, R.D., Eyre, B., Gatenby, P., Gonzalez, M., Hamylton, S., Hansen, J., Lowe, R., Mallela, J., O'Leary, M., Roff, G., Saunders, Ben, Zweilfer, A.
Other Authors: Hawkins, SJ
Format: Book Chapter
Language:English
Published: CRC PRESS-TAYLOR & FRANCIS GROUP 2021
Subjects:
Online Access:http://purl.org/au-research/grants/arc/DE180100391
http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11937/90253
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author Browne, Nicola
Cuttler, M.
Moon, K.
Morgan, K.
Ross, C.L.
Castro-Sanguino, C.
Kennedy, E.
Harris, D.
Barnes, P.
Bauman, A.
Beetham, E.
Bonesso, J.
Bozec, Y.M.
Cornwall, C.
Dee, S.
Decarlo, T.
D'Olivo, J.P.
Doropoulos, C.
Evans, R.D.
Eyre, B.
Gatenby, P.
Gonzalez, M.
Hamylton, S.
Hansen, J.
Lowe, R.
Mallela, J.
O'Leary, M.
Roff, G.
Saunders, Ben
Zweilfer, A.
author2 Hawkins, SJ
author_facet Hawkins, SJ
Browne, Nicola
Cuttler, M.
Moon, K.
Morgan, K.
Ross, C.L.
Castro-Sanguino, C.
Kennedy, E.
Harris, D.
Barnes, P.
Bauman, A.
Beetham, E.
Bonesso, J.
Bozec, Y.M.
Cornwall, C.
Dee, S.
Decarlo, T.
D'Olivo, J.P.
Doropoulos, C.
Evans, R.D.
Eyre, B.
Gatenby, P.
Gonzalez, M.
Hamylton, S.
Hansen, J.
Lowe, R.
Mallela, J.
O'Leary, M.
Roff, G.
Saunders, Ben
Zweilfer, A.
author_sort Browne, Nicola
building Curtin Institutional Repository
collection Online Access
description Coral reefs provide critical ecological and geomorphic (e.g. sediment production for reef-fronted shoreline maintenance) services, which interact in complex and dynamic ways. These services are under threat from climate change, requiring dynamic modelling approaches that predict how reef systems will respond to different future climate scenarios. Carbonate budgets, which estimate net reef calcium carbonate production, provide a comprehensive 'snap-shot' assessment of reef accretionary potential and reef stability. These budgets, however, were not intended to account for the full suite of processes that maintain coral reef services or to provide predictive capacity on longer timescales (decadal to centennial). To respond to the dual challenges of enhancing carbonate budget assessments and advancing their predictive capacity, we applied a novel model elicitation and review method to create a qualitative geo-ecological carbonate reef system model that links geomorphic, ecological and physical processes. Our approach conceptualizes relationships between net carbonate production, sediment transport and landform stability, and rates knowledge confidence to reveal major knowledge gaps and critical future research pathways. The model provides a blueprint for future coral reef research that aims to quantify net carbonate production and sediment dynamics, improving our capacity to predict responses of reefs and reef-fronted shorelines to future climate change.
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spelling curtin-20.500.11937-902532023-06-08T09:16:50Z Predicting responses of geo-ecological carbonate reef systems to climate change: A conceptual model and review Browne, Nicola Cuttler, M. Moon, K. Morgan, K. Ross, C.L. Castro-Sanguino, C. Kennedy, E. Harris, D. Barnes, P. Bauman, A. Beetham, E. Bonesso, J. Bozec, Y.M. Cornwall, C. Dee, S. Decarlo, T. D'Olivo, J.P. Doropoulos, C. Evans, R.D. Eyre, B. Gatenby, P. Gonzalez, M. Hamylton, S. Hansen, J. Lowe, R. Mallela, J. O'Leary, M. Roff, G. Saunders, Ben Zweilfer, A. Hawkins, SJ Lemasson, AJ Allcock, AL Bates, AE Byrne, M Evans, AJ Firth, LB Marzinelli, EM Russell, BD Smith, IP Swearer, SE Todd, PA Science & Technology Life Sciences & Biomedicine Physical Sciences Ecology Marine & Freshwater Biology Oceanography Environmental Sciences & Ecology Carbonate Budgets Ecological Modelling Mental Model Elicitation Coral Reefs Reef Islands Climate GREAT-BARRIER-REEF CRUSTOSE CORALLINE ALGAE SEA-LEVEL RISE PARROTFISHES FAMILY SCARIDAE LARGE BENTHIC FORAMINIFERA LAGOONS FRENCH-POLYNESIA STRUCTURE-FROM-MOTION BORING SPONGE CLIONA WAVE-GENERATED FLOW ONE-TREE-ISLAND Coral reefs provide critical ecological and geomorphic (e.g. sediment production for reef-fronted shoreline maintenance) services, which interact in complex and dynamic ways. These services are under threat from climate change, requiring dynamic modelling approaches that predict how reef systems will respond to different future climate scenarios. Carbonate budgets, which estimate net reef calcium carbonate production, provide a comprehensive 'snap-shot' assessment of reef accretionary potential and reef stability. These budgets, however, were not intended to account for the full suite of processes that maintain coral reef services or to provide predictive capacity on longer timescales (decadal to centennial). To respond to the dual challenges of enhancing carbonate budget assessments and advancing their predictive capacity, we applied a novel model elicitation and review method to create a qualitative geo-ecological carbonate reef system model that links geomorphic, ecological and physical processes. Our approach conceptualizes relationships between net carbonate production, sediment transport and landform stability, and rates knowledge confidence to reveal major knowledge gaps and critical future research pathways. The model provides a blueprint for future coral reef research that aims to quantify net carbonate production and sediment dynamics, improving our capacity to predict responses of reefs and reef-fronted shorelines to future climate change. 2021 Book Chapter http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11937/90253 10.1201/9781003138846-4 English http://purl.org/au-research/grants/arc/DE180100391 http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ CRC PRESS-TAYLOR & FRANCIS GROUP fulltext
spellingShingle Science & Technology
Life Sciences & Biomedicine
Physical Sciences
Ecology
Marine & Freshwater Biology
Oceanography
Environmental Sciences & Ecology
Carbonate Budgets
Ecological Modelling
Mental Model Elicitation
Coral Reefs
Reef Islands
Climate
GREAT-BARRIER-REEF
CRUSTOSE CORALLINE ALGAE
SEA-LEVEL RISE
PARROTFISHES FAMILY SCARIDAE
LARGE BENTHIC FORAMINIFERA
LAGOONS FRENCH-POLYNESIA
STRUCTURE-FROM-MOTION
BORING SPONGE CLIONA
WAVE-GENERATED FLOW
ONE-TREE-ISLAND
Browne, Nicola
Cuttler, M.
Moon, K.
Morgan, K.
Ross, C.L.
Castro-Sanguino, C.
Kennedy, E.
Harris, D.
Barnes, P.
Bauman, A.
Beetham, E.
Bonesso, J.
Bozec, Y.M.
Cornwall, C.
Dee, S.
Decarlo, T.
D'Olivo, J.P.
Doropoulos, C.
Evans, R.D.
Eyre, B.
Gatenby, P.
Gonzalez, M.
Hamylton, S.
Hansen, J.
Lowe, R.
Mallela, J.
O'Leary, M.
Roff, G.
Saunders, Ben
Zweilfer, A.
Predicting responses of geo-ecological carbonate reef systems to climate change: A conceptual model and review
title Predicting responses of geo-ecological carbonate reef systems to climate change: A conceptual model and review
title_full Predicting responses of geo-ecological carbonate reef systems to climate change: A conceptual model and review
title_fullStr Predicting responses of geo-ecological carbonate reef systems to climate change: A conceptual model and review
title_full_unstemmed Predicting responses of geo-ecological carbonate reef systems to climate change: A conceptual model and review
title_short Predicting responses of geo-ecological carbonate reef systems to climate change: A conceptual model and review
title_sort predicting responses of geo-ecological carbonate reef systems to climate change: a conceptual model and review
topic Science & Technology
Life Sciences & Biomedicine
Physical Sciences
Ecology
Marine & Freshwater Biology
Oceanography
Environmental Sciences & Ecology
Carbonate Budgets
Ecological Modelling
Mental Model Elicitation
Coral Reefs
Reef Islands
Climate
GREAT-BARRIER-REEF
CRUSTOSE CORALLINE ALGAE
SEA-LEVEL RISE
PARROTFISHES FAMILY SCARIDAE
LARGE BENTHIC FORAMINIFERA
LAGOONS FRENCH-POLYNESIA
STRUCTURE-FROM-MOTION
BORING SPONGE CLIONA
WAVE-GENERATED FLOW
ONE-TREE-ISLAND
url http://purl.org/au-research/grants/arc/DE180100391
http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11937/90253