Bayesian inference of multivariate-GARCH-BEKK models

The main aim of this paper is to present a Bayesian analysis of Multivariate GARCH(l, m) (M-GARCH) models including estimation of the coefficient parameters as well as the model order, by combining a set of existing MCMC algorithms in the literature. The proposed algorithm focuses on the BEKK formul...

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Main Authors: Livingston, Jr, Glen, Nur, Darfiana
Format: Journal Article
Published: Springer Nature 2022
Online Access:http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11937/89416
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author Livingston, Jr, Glen
Nur, Darfiana
author_facet Livingston, Jr, Glen
Nur, Darfiana
author_sort Livingston, Jr, Glen
building Curtin Institutional Repository
collection Online Access
description The main aim of this paper is to present a Bayesian analysis of Multivariate GARCH(l, m) (M-GARCH) models including estimation of the coefficient parameters as well as the model order, by combining a set of existing MCMC algorithms in the literature. The proposed algorithm focuses on the BEKK formulation of the multivariate GARCH model. The estimation procedure will be designed as a custom MCMC with embedded Reversible Jump MCMC (RJMCMC) and Delayed Rejection Metropolis-Hastings (DRMH) steps implemented using the statistical software R. The RJMCMC steps allow three variants of BEKK models (constant, diagonal and full) to be indexed and this index included as a parameter to be estimated. The proposed MCMC algorithms are validated using extensive simulation experiments followed by a case study using bivariate data derived from the daily share prices for BHP Group Limited, Rio Tinto Group, and Fortescue Metals Group Limited on the ASX over from September 2013 to December 2021.
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institution Curtin University Malaysia
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publishDate 2022
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spelling curtin-20.500.11937-894162022-10-24T05:43:17Z Bayesian inference of multivariate-GARCH-BEKK models Livingston, Jr, Glen Nur, Darfiana The main aim of this paper is to present a Bayesian analysis of Multivariate GARCH(l, m) (M-GARCH) models including estimation of the coefficient parameters as well as the model order, by combining a set of existing MCMC algorithms in the literature. The proposed algorithm focuses on the BEKK formulation of the multivariate GARCH model. The estimation procedure will be designed as a custom MCMC with embedded Reversible Jump MCMC (RJMCMC) and Delayed Rejection Metropolis-Hastings (DRMH) steps implemented using the statistical software R. The RJMCMC steps allow three variants of BEKK models (constant, diagonal and full) to be indexed and this index included as a parameter to be estimated. The proposed MCMC algorithms are validated using extensive simulation experiments followed by a case study using bivariate data derived from the daily share prices for BHP Group Limited, Rio Tinto Group, and Fortescue Metals Group Limited on the ASX over from September 2013 to December 2021. 2022 Journal Article http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11937/89416 10.1007/s00362-022-01360-6 http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Springer Nature fulltext
spellingShingle Livingston, Jr, Glen
Nur, Darfiana
Bayesian inference of multivariate-GARCH-BEKK models
title Bayesian inference of multivariate-GARCH-BEKK models
title_full Bayesian inference of multivariate-GARCH-BEKK models
title_fullStr Bayesian inference of multivariate-GARCH-BEKK models
title_full_unstemmed Bayesian inference of multivariate-GARCH-BEKK models
title_short Bayesian inference of multivariate-GARCH-BEKK models
title_sort bayesian inference of multivariate-garch-bekk models
url http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11937/89416