The Next Generation of Fatigue Prediction Models: Evaluating Current Trends in Biomathematical Modelling for Safety Optimization

Biomathematical models (BMMs) are parametric models that quantitatively predict fatigue and are routinely implemented in fatigue risk management systems in increasingly diverse workplaces. There have been consistent calls for an improved ‘next generation’ of BMMs that provide more accurate and targe...

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Main Authors: Wilson, Micah, Strickland, Luke, Ballard, Timothy, Griffin, Mark
Format: Journal Article
Published: 2022
Online Access:http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11937/89237
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author Wilson, Micah
Strickland, Luke
Ballard, Timothy
Griffin, Mark
author_facet Wilson, Micah
Strickland, Luke
Ballard, Timothy
Griffin, Mark
author_sort Wilson, Micah
building Curtin Institutional Repository
collection Online Access
description Biomathematical models (BMMs) are parametric models that quantitatively predict fatigue and are routinely implemented in fatigue risk management systems in increasingly diverse workplaces. There have been consistent calls for an improved ‘next generation’ of BMMs that provide more accurate and targeted predictions of human fatigue. This article examines the core characteristics of next-generation advancements in BMMs, including tailoring with field data, individual-level parameter tuning and real-time fatigue prediction, extensions to account for additional factors that influence fatigue, and emerging nonparametric methodologies that may augment or provide alternatives to BMMs. Examination of past literature and quantitative examples suggests that there are notable challenges to advancing BMMs beyond their current applications. Adoption of multi-model frameworks, including quantitative joint modelling and machine-learning, was identified as crucial to next-generation models. We close with general recommendations for researchers, practitioners, and model developers, including focusing research efforts on understanding the cognitive dynamics underpinning fatigue-related vigilance decrements, applying emerging dynamic modelling methods to fatigue data from field settings, and improving the adoption of open scientific practices in fatigue research.
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spelling curtin-20.500.11937-892372024-06-06T02:55:10Z The Next Generation of Fatigue Prediction Models: Evaluating Current Trends in Biomathematical Modelling for Safety Optimization Wilson, Micah Strickland, Luke Ballard, Timothy Griffin, Mark Biomathematical models (BMMs) are parametric models that quantitatively predict fatigue and are routinely implemented in fatigue risk management systems in increasingly diverse workplaces. There have been consistent calls for an improved ‘next generation’ of BMMs that provide more accurate and targeted predictions of human fatigue. This article examines the core characteristics of next-generation advancements in BMMs, including tailoring with field data, individual-level parameter tuning and real-time fatigue prediction, extensions to account for additional factors that influence fatigue, and emerging nonparametric methodologies that may augment or provide alternatives to BMMs. Examination of past literature and quantitative examples suggests that there are notable challenges to advancing BMMs beyond their current applications. Adoption of multi-model frameworks, including quantitative joint modelling and machine-learning, was identified as crucial to next-generation models. We close with general recommendations for researchers, practitioners, and model developers, including focusing research efforts on understanding the cognitive dynamics underpinning fatigue-related vigilance decrements, applying emerging dynamic modelling methods to fatigue data from field settings, and improving the adoption of open scientific practices in fatigue research. 2022 Journal Article http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11937/89237 10.1080/1463922X.2022.2144962 fulltext
spellingShingle Wilson, Micah
Strickland, Luke
Ballard, Timothy
Griffin, Mark
The Next Generation of Fatigue Prediction Models: Evaluating Current Trends in Biomathematical Modelling for Safety Optimization
title The Next Generation of Fatigue Prediction Models: Evaluating Current Trends in Biomathematical Modelling for Safety Optimization
title_full The Next Generation of Fatigue Prediction Models: Evaluating Current Trends in Biomathematical Modelling for Safety Optimization
title_fullStr The Next Generation of Fatigue Prediction Models: Evaluating Current Trends in Biomathematical Modelling for Safety Optimization
title_full_unstemmed The Next Generation of Fatigue Prediction Models: Evaluating Current Trends in Biomathematical Modelling for Safety Optimization
title_short The Next Generation of Fatigue Prediction Models: Evaluating Current Trends in Biomathematical Modelling for Safety Optimization
title_sort next generation of fatigue prediction models: evaluating current trends in biomathematical modelling for safety optimization
url http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11937/89237