The Next Generation of Fatigue Prediction Models: Evaluating Current Trends in Biomathematical Modelling for Safety Optimization
Biomathematical models (BMMs) are parametric models that quantitatively predict fatigue and are routinely implemented in fatigue risk management systems in increasingly diverse workplaces. There have been consistent calls for an improved ‘next generation’ of BMMs that provide more accurate and targe...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Journal Article |
| Published: |
2022
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| Online Access: | http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11937/89237 |
| _version_ | 1848765185164050432 |
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| author | Wilson, Micah Strickland, Luke Ballard, Timothy Griffin, Mark |
| author_facet | Wilson, Micah Strickland, Luke Ballard, Timothy Griffin, Mark |
| author_sort | Wilson, Micah |
| building | Curtin Institutional Repository |
| collection | Online Access |
| description | Biomathematical models (BMMs) are parametric models that quantitatively predict fatigue and are routinely implemented in fatigue risk management systems in increasingly diverse workplaces. There have been consistent calls for an improved ‘next generation’ of BMMs that provide more accurate and targeted predictions of human fatigue. This article examines the core characteristics of next-generation advancements in BMMs, including tailoring with field data, individual-level parameter tuning and real-time fatigue prediction, extensions to account for additional factors that influence fatigue, and emerging nonparametric methodologies that may augment or provide alternatives to BMMs. Examination of past literature and quantitative examples suggests that there are notable challenges to advancing BMMs beyond their current applications. Adoption of multi-model frameworks, including quantitative joint modelling and machine-learning, was identified as crucial to next-generation models. We close with general recommendations for researchers, practitioners, and model developers, including focusing research efforts on understanding the cognitive dynamics underpinning fatigue-related vigilance decrements, applying emerging dynamic modelling methods to fatigue data from field settings, and improving the adoption of open scientific practices in fatigue research. |
| first_indexed | 2025-11-14T11:31:14Z |
| format | Journal Article |
| id | curtin-20.500.11937-89237 |
| institution | Curtin University Malaysia |
| institution_category | Local University |
| last_indexed | 2025-11-14T11:31:14Z |
| publishDate | 2022 |
| recordtype | eprints |
| repository_type | Digital Repository |
| spelling | curtin-20.500.11937-892372024-06-06T02:55:10Z The Next Generation of Fatigue Prediction Models: Evaluating Current Trends in Biomathematical Modelling for Safety Optimization Wilson, Micah Strickland, Luke Ballard, Timothy Griffin, Mark Biomathematical models (BMMs) are parametric models that quantitatively predict fatigue and are routinely implemented in fatigue risk management systems in increasingly diverse workplaces. There have been consistent calls for an improved ‘next generation’ of BMMs that provide more accurate and targeted predictions of human fatigue. This article examines the core characteristics of next-generation advancements in BMMs, including tailoring with field data, individual-level parameter tuning and real-time fatigue prediction, extensions to account for additional factors that influence fatigue, and emerging nonparametric methodologies that may augment or provide alternatives to BMMs. Examination of past literature and quantitative examples suggests that there are notable challenges to advancing BMMs beyond their current applications. Adoption of multi-model frameworks, including quantitative joint modelling and machine-learning, was identified as crucial to next-generation models. We close with general recommendations for researchers, practitioners, and model developers, including focusing research efforts on understanding the cognitive dynamics underpinning fatigue-related vigilance decrements, applying emerging dynamic modelling methods to fatigue data from field settings, and improving the adoption of open scientific practices in fatigue research. 2022 Journal Article http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11937/89237 10.1080/1463922X.2022.2144962 fulltext |
| spellingShingle | Wilson, Micah Strickland, Luke Ballard, Timothy Griffin, Mark The Next Generation of Fatigue Prediction Models: Evaluating Current Trends in Biomathematical Modelling for Safety Optimization |
| title | The Next Generation of Fatigue Prediction Models: Evaluating Current Trends in Biomathematical Modelling for Safety Optimization |
| title_full | The Next Generation of Fatigue Prediction Models: Evaluating Current Trends in Biomathematical Modelling for Safety Optimization |
| title_fullStr | The Next Generation of Fatigue Prediction Models: Evaluating Current Trends in Biomathematical Modelling for Safety Optimization |
| title_full_unstemmed | The Next Generation of Fatigue Prediction Models: Evaluating Current Trends in Biomathematical Modelling for Safety Optimization |
| title_short | The Next Generation of Fatigue Prediction Models: Evaluating Current Trends in Biomathematical Modelling for Safety Optimization |
| title_sort | next generation of fatigue prediction models: evaluating current trends in biomathematical modelling for safety optimization |
| url | http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11937/89237 |