A methodology for projecting sparse populations and its application to remote Indigenous communities
© 2020, The Author(s). A new method is proposed for generating projections for sparse populations by locality, age cohort and gender. An adaptation of the cohort replacement method, the approach uses a Tobit model with varying censoring limits to model population changes by cohort. As an applied...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Journal Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Springer Nature
2020
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11937/80827 |
| _version_ | 1848764279827726336 |
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| author | Harris, Mark Dockery, A. Holyoak, N. Singh, Ranjodh |
| author_facet | Harris, Mark Dockery, A. Holyoak, N. Singh, Ranjodh |
| author_sort | Harris, Mark |
| building | Curtin Institutional Repository |
| collection | Online Access |
| description | © 2020, The Author(s).
A new method is proposed for generating projections for sparse populations by locality, age cohort and gender. An adaptation of the cohort replacement method, the approach uses a Tobit model with varying censoring limits to model population changes by cohort. As an applied example, projections are generated for 2016 Indigenous populations in communities in regional and remote Australia, and then compared to actual 2016 Census population counts. We argue the approach has considerable potential, with the model performing well in out-of-sample projection while offering projections at a much finer-grained level of disaggregation than currently available to planners and policy-makers. |
| first_indexed | 2025-11-14T11:16:50Z |
| format | Journal Article |
| id | curtin-20.500.11937-80827 |
| institution | Curtin University Malaysia |
| institution_category | Local University |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2025-11-14T11:16:50Z |
| publishDate | 2020 |
| publisher | Springer Nature |
| recordtype | eprints |
| repository_type | Digital Repository |
| spelling | curtin-20.500.11937-808272020-10-30T03:20:06Z A methodology for projecting sparse populations and its application to remote Indigenous communities Harris, Mark Dockery, A. Holyoak, N. Singh, Ranjodh Social Sciences Geography Population modelling Population projections Cohort replacement Regional and remote Indigenous Australia © 2020, The Author(s). A new method is proposed for generating projections for sparse populations by locality, age cohort and gender. An adaptation of the cohort replacement method, the approach uses a Tobit model with varying censoring limits to model population changes by cohort. As an applied example, projections are generated for 2016 Indigenous populations in communities in regional and remote Australia, and then compared to actual 2016 Census population counts. We argue the approach has considerable potential, with the model performing well in out-of-sample projection while offering projections at a much finer-grained level of disaggregation than currently available to planners and policy-makers. 2020 Journal Article http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11937/80827 10.1007/s10109-020-00329-z English http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Springer Nature fulltext |
| spellingShingle | Social Sciences Geography Population modelling Population projections Cohort replacement Regional and remote Indigenous Australia Harris, Mark Dockery, A. Holyoak, N. Singh, Ranjodh A methodology for projecting sparse populations and its application to remote Indigenous communities |
| title | A methodology for projecting sparse populations and its application to remote Indigenous communities |
| title_full | A methodology for projecting sparse populations and its application to remote Indigenous communities |
| title_fullStr | A methodology for projecting sparse populations and its application to remote Indigenous communities |
| title_full_unstemmed | A methodology for projecting sparse populations and its application to remote Indigenous communities |
| title_short | A methodology for projecting sparse populations and its application to remote Indigenous communities |
| title_sort | methodology for projecting sparse populations and its application to remote indigenous communities |
| topic | Social Sciences Geography Population modelling Population projections Cohort replacement Regional and remote Indigenous Australia |
| url | http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11937/80827 |