The Shocking Origins of Political Transitions: Evidence from Earthquakes
Do earthquakes trigger political transitions? Using a rich panel dataset of 160 countries observed over 1950–2007, we find that earthquake shocks, measured in terms of the effect of ground-motion amplitude on death toll, have two contradicting effects on political change. On the one hand, earthquake...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Journal Article |
| Language: | English |
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WILEY-BLACKWELL
2017
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/soej.12180 http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11937/80691 |
| _version_ | 1848764250598670336 |
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| author | Rahman, Muhammad Habibur Anbarci, Nejat Bhattacharya, Prasad Sankar Ulubaşoğlu, Mehmet Ali |
| author_facet | Rahman, Muhammad Habibur Anbarci, Nejat Bhattacharya, Prasad Sankar Ulubaşoğlu, Mehmet Ali |
| author_sort | Rahman, Muhammad Habibur |
| building | Curtin Institutional Repository |
| collection | Online Access |
| description | Do earthquakes trigger political transitions? Using a rich panel dataset of 160 countries observed over 1950–2007, we find that earthquake shocks, measured in terms of the effect of ground-motion amplitude on death toll, have two contradicting effects on political change. On the one hand, earthquakes drive transitions into democracy due to an affective shock, which we interpret to be the reaction of citizens by which they hold the incumbent government responsible for earthquake damages. On the other hand, earthquakes indirectly hasten transitions into a less democratic regime because they increase the income level contemporaneously, possibly due to short-term emergency response and recovery expenditures, and thus, raising the opportunity cost of contesting the incumbent government. Overall, we show that, while not leading to a full-fledged regime transition, earthquake shocks open a new democratic window of opportunity, but this window is narrowed by improved economic conditions. |
| first_indexed | 2025-11-14T11:16:22Z |
| format | Journal Article |
| id | curtin-20.500.11937-80691 |
| institution | Curtin University Malaysia |
| institution_category | Local University |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2025-11-14T11:16:22Z |
| publishDate | 2017 |
| publisher | WILEY-BLACKWELL |
| recordtype | eprints |
| repository_type | Digital Repository |
| spelling | curtin-20.500.11937-806912021-01-15T04:10:54Z The Shocking Origins of Political Transitions: Evidence from Earthquakes Rahman, Muhammad Habibur Anbarci, Nejat Bhattacharya, Prasad Sankar Ulubaşoğlu, Mehmet Ali Social Sciences Economics Business & Economics NATURAL DISASTERS DEMOCRACY GROWTH CORRUPTION SPREAD VOTERS INCOME Do earthquakes trigger political transitions? Using a rich panel dataset of 160 countries observed over 1950–2007, we find that earthquake shocks, measured in terms of the effect of ground-motion amplitude on death toll, have two contradicting effects on political change. On the one hand, earthquakes drive transitions into democracy due to an affective shock, which we interpret to be the reaction of citizens by which they hold the incumbent government responsible for earthquake damages. On the other hand, earthquakes indirectly hasten transitions into a less democratic regime because they increase the income level contemporaneously, possibly due to short-term emergency response and recovery expenditures, and thus, raising the opportunity cost of contesting the incumbent government. Overall, we show that, while not leading to a full-fledged regime transition, earthquake shocks open a new democratic window of opportunity, but this window is narrowed by improved economic conditions. 2017 Journal Article http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11937/80691 10.1002/soej.12180 English https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/soej.12180 WILEY-BLACKWELL restricted |
| spellingShingle | Social Sciences Economics Business & Economics NATURAL DISASTERS DEMOCRACY GROWTH CORRUPTION SPREAD VOTERS INCOME Rahman, Muhammad Habibur Anbarci, Nejat Bhattacharya, Prasad Sankar Ulubaşoğlu, Mehmet Ali The Shocking Origins of Political Transitions: Evidence from Earthquakes |
| title | The Shocking Origins of Political Transitions: Evidence from Earthquakes |
| title_full | The Shocking Origins of Political Transitions: Evidence from Earthquakes |
| title_fullStr | The Shocking Origins of Political Transitions: Evidence from Earthquakes |
| title_full_unstemmed | The Shocking Origins of Political Transitions: Evidence from Earthquakes |
| title_short | The Shocking Origins of Political Transitions: Evidence from Earthquakes |
| title_sort | shocking origins of political transitions: evidence from earthquakes |
| topic | Social Sciences Economics Business & Economics NATURAL DISASTERS DEMOCRACY GROWTH CORRUPTION SPREAD VOTERS INCOME |
| url | https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/soej.12180 http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11937/80691 |