Estimation of probable maximum precipitation at three provinces in Northeast Vietnam using historical data and future climate change scenarios
Study region: In this study, three provinces in Northeast Vietnam including Bac Kan, Thai Nguyen, and Tuyen Quang are examined to determine the precipitation variation characteristics. Study focus: The average yearly temperature during the last two decades in Northeast Vietnam has increased by 0.72...
| Main Authors: | , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Journal Article |
| Published: |
2019
|
| Online Access: | http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11937/75568 |
| _version_ | 1848763506084544512 |
|---|---|
| author | Thanh Thuy, L. Kawagoe, S. Sarukkalige, Priyantha |
| author_facet | Thanh Thuy, L. Kawagoe, S. Sarukkalige, Priyantha |
| author_sort | Thanh Thuy, L. |
| building | Curtin Institutional Repository |
| collection | Online Access |
| description | Study region: In this study, three provinces in Northeast Vietnam including Bac Kan, Thai Nguyen, and Tuyen Quang are examined to determine the precipitation variation characteristics. Study focus: The average yearly temperature during the last two decades in Northeast Vietnam has increased by 0.72 °C when compared to the period 1962–1990. The Clausius Clapeyron (CC) relation indicates that a warmer atmosphere can result in higher moisture-holding capacity; hence, there is the possibility of increased extreme rainfall with respect to the rise in temperature. We evaluate the relationship between the average 24-hour temperature and rainfall extremes using the binning method. The estimation of the 24-hour probable maximum precipitation (PMP) is then implemented based on the moisture maximization and Hershfield statistical methods. New hydrological insights for the region: The 99.9 th percentiles of 24-hour precipitation are close to the super CC scaling up to peak points of 22.6–25.6 °C and decrease at higher temperatures. The Hershfield method produces 24-hour PMP results ranging from 232 mm to 895 mm. PMP outputs using the moisture maximization method based on the 100-year dew point are higher than those results generated from the statistical method except for Chiem Hoa station. Considering possible changes in future relative humidity under a warming climate from GCMs and RCM projections for two RCP scenarios, RCP 8.5 indicates the possible rise in probable extreme precipitation. |
| first_indexed | 2025-11-14T11:04:32Z |
| format | Journal Article |
| id | curtin-20.500.11937-75568 |
| institution | Curtin University Malaysia |
| institution_category | Local University |
| last_indexed | 2025-11-14T11:04:32Z |
| publishDate | 2019 |
| recordtype | eprints |
| repository_type | Digital Repository |
| spelling | curtin-20.500.11937-755682021-01-15T07:49:43Z Estimation of probable maximum precipitation at three provinces in Northeast Vietnam using historical data and future climate change scenarios Thanh Thuy, L. Kawagoe, S. Sarukkalige, Priyantha Study region: In this study, three provinces in Northeast Vietnam including Bac Kan, Thai Nguyen, and Tuyen Quang are examined to determine the precipitation variation characteristics. Study focus: The average yearly temperature during the last two decades in Northeast Vietnam has increased by 0.72 °C when compared to the period 1962–1990. The Clausius Clapeyron (CC) relation indicates that a warmer atmosphere can result in higher moisture-holding capacity; hence, there is the possibility of increased extreme rainfall with respect to the rise in temperature. We evaluate the relationship between the average 24-hour temperature and rainfall extremes using the binning method. The estimation of the 24-hour probable maximum precipitation (PMP) is then implemented based on the moisture maximization and Hershfield statistical methods. New hydrological insights for the region: The 99.9 th percentiles of 24-hour precipitation are close to the super CC scaling up to peak points of 22.6–25.6 °C and decrease at higher temperatures. The Hershfield method produces 24-hour PMP results ranging from 232 mm to 895 mm. PMP outputs using the moisture maximization method based on the 100-year dew point are higher than those results generated from the statistical method except for Chiem Hoa station. Considering possible changes in future relative humidity under a warming climate from GCMs and RCM projections for two RCP scenarios, RCP 8.5 indicates the possible rise in probable extreme precipitation. 2019 Journal Article http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11937/75568 10.1016/j.ejrh.2019.100599 http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ fulltext |
| spellingShingle | Thanh Thuy, L. Kawagoe, S. Sarukkalige, Priyantha Estimation of probable maximum precipitation at three provinces in Northeast Vietnam using historical data and future climate change scenarios |
| title | Estimation of probable maximum precipitation at three provinces in Northeast Vietnam using historical data and future climate change scenarios |
| title_full | Estimation of probable maximum precipitation at three provinces in Northeast Vietnam using historical data and future climate change scenarios |
| title_fullStr | Estimation of probable maximum precipitation at three provinces in Northeast Vietnam using historical data and future climate change scenarios |
| title_full_unstemmed | Estimation of probable maximum precipitation at three provinces in Northeast Vietnam using historical data and future climate change scenarios |
| title_short | Estimation of probable maximum precipitation at three provinces in Northeast Vietnam using historical data and future climate change scenarios |
| title_sort | estimation of probable maximum precipitation at three provinces in northeast vietnam using historical data and future climate change scenarios |
| url | http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11937/75568 |