The probability of probability and research truths
© 2017 Australasian College for Emergency Medicine and Australasian Society for Emergency Medicine The foundation of much medical research rests on the statistical significance of the P-value, but we have fallen prey to the seductive certainty of significance. Other scientific disciplines work to a...
| Main Authors: | , |
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| Format: | Journal Article |
| Published: |
Wiley-Blackwell Publishing Asia
2017
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| Online Access: | http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11937/73402 |
| _version_ | 1848763004481437696 |
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| author | Fatovich, Daniel Phillips, M. |
| author_facet | Fatovich, Daniel Phillips, M. |
| author_sort | Fatovich, Daniel |
| building | Curtin Institutional Repository |
| collection | Online Access |
| description | © 2017 Australasian College for Emergency Medicine and Australasian Society for Emergency Medicine The foundation of much medical research rests on the statistical significance of the P-value, but we have fallen prey to the seductive certainty of significance. Other scientific disciplines work to a different standard. This may partly explain why medical reversal is an increasing phenomenon, whereby new studies (based on the 0.05 standard) overturn previous significant findings. This has generated a crisis in the rigour of evidence-based medicine, as many people erroneously believe that a P < 0.05 means the treatment effect is clinically important. However, statistics are not facts about the world. Nor should they be based on an arbitrary threshold that arose for historical reasons. This arbitrary threshold encourages an unthinking automatic response that contributes to industry's influence on medical research. Examples from emergency medicine practice illustrate these themes. Study replication needs to be valued as much as discovery. Careful and thoughtful unbiased thinking about the results we do have is undervalued. |
| first_indexed | 2025-11-14T10:56:34Z |
| format | Journal Article |
| id | curtin-20.500.11937-73402 |
| institution | Curtin University Malaysia |
| institution_category | Local University |
| last_indexed | 2025-11-14T10:56:34Z |
| publishDate | 2017 |
| publisher | Wiley-Blackwell Publishing Asia |
| recordtype | eprints |
| repository_type | Digital Repository |
| spelling | curtin-20.500.11937-734022018-12-13T09:35:49Z The probability of probability and research truths Fatovich, Daniel Phillips, M. © 2017 Australasian College for Emergency Medicine and Australasian Society for Emergency Medicine The foundation of much medical research rests on the statistical significance of the P-value, but we have fallen prey to the seductive certainty of significance. Other scientific disciplines work to a different standard. This may partly explain why medical reversal is an increasing phenomenon, whereby new studies (based on the 0.05 standard) overturn previous significant findings. This has generated a crisis in the rigour of evidence-based medicine, as many people erroneously believe that a P < 0.05 means the treatment effect is clinically important. However, statistics are not facts about the world. Nor should they be based on an arbitrary threshold that arose for historical reasons. This arbitrary threshold encourages an unthinking automatic response that contributes to industry's influence on medical research. Examples from emergency medicine practice illustrate these themes. Study replication needs to be valued as much as discovery. Careful and thoughtful unbiased thinking about the results we do have is undervalued. 2017 Journal Article http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11937/73402 10.1111/1742-6723.12740 Wiley-Blackwell Publishing Asia restricted |
| spellingShingle | Fatovich, Daniel Phillips, M. The probability of probability and research truths |
| title | The probability of probability and research truths |
| title_full | The probability of probability and research truths |
| title_fullStr | The probability of probability and research truths |
| title_full_unstemmed | The probability of probability and research truths |
| title_short | The probability of probability and research truths |
| title_sort | probability of probability and research truths |
| url | http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11937/73402 |