A Novel Multivariate Volatility Modeling for Risk Management in Stock Markets

Volatility modeling is crucial for risk management and asset allocation; this is an influential area in financial econometrics. The central requirement of volatility modeling is to be able to forecast volatility accurately. The literature review of volatility modeling shows that the approaches of mo...

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Main Authors: Wei, Z., Yiu, K., Wong, H., Chan, Kit Yan
Format: Journal Article
Published: Chinese Fuzzy Systems Association 2018
Online Access:http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11937/67540
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author Wei, Z.
Yiu, K.
Wong, H.
Chan, Kit Yan
author_facet Wei, Z.
Yiu, K.
Wong, H.
Chan, Kit Yan
author_sort Wei, Z.
building Curtin Institutional Repository
collection Online Access
description Volatility modeling is crucial for risk management and asset allocation; this is an influential area in financial econometrics. The central requirement of volatility modeling is to be able to forecast volatility accurately. The literature review of volatility modeling shows that the approaches of model averaging estimation are commonly used to reduce model uncertainty in order to achieve a satisfactory forecasting reliability. However, those approaches attempt to forecast more reliable volatilities by integrating all forecasting outcomes equally from several volatility models. Forecasting patterns generated by each model may be similar. This may cause redundant computation without improving forecasting reliability. The proposed multivariate volatility modeling method which is called the fuzzy-method-involving multivariate volatility model (abbreviated as FMVM) classifies the individual models into smaller scale clusters and selects the most representative model in each cluster. Hence, repetitive but unnecessary computational burden can be reduced, and forecasting patterns from representative models can be integrated. The proposed FMVM is benchmarked against existing multivariate volatility models on forecasting volatilities of Hong Kong Hang Seng Index constituent stocks. Numerical results show that it can obtain relatively lower forecasting errors with less model complexity.
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format Journal Article
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institution Curtin University Malaysia
institution_category Local University
last_indexed 2025-11-14T10:34:07Z
publishDate 2018
publisher Chinese Fuzzy Systems Association
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spelling curtin-20.500.11937-675402018-11-29T01:54:29Z A Novel Multivariate Volatility Modeling for Risk Management in Stock Markets Wei, Z. Yiu, K. Wong, H. Chan, Kit Yan Volatility modeling is crucial for risk management and asset allocation; this is an influential area in financial econometrics. The central requirement of volatility modeling is to be able to forecast volatility accurately. The literature review of volatility modeling shows that the approaches of model averaging estimation are commonly used to reduce model uncertainty in order to achieve a satisfactory forecasting reliability. However, those approaches attempt to forecast more reliable volatilities by integrating all forecasting outcomes equally from several volatility models. Forecasting patterns generated by each model may be similar. This may cause redundant computation without improving forecasting reliability. The proposed multivariate volatility modeling method which is called the fuzzy-method-involving multivariate volatility model (abbreviated as FMVM) classifies the individual models into smaller scale clusters and selects the most representative model in each cluster. Hence, repetitive but unnecessary computational burden can be reduced, and forecasting patterns from representative models can be integrated. The proposed FMVM is benchmarked against existing multivariate volatility models on forecasting volatilities of Hong Kong Hang Seng Index constituent stocks. Numerical results show that it can obtain relatively lower forecasting errors with less model complexity. 2018 Journal Article http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11937/67540 10.1007/s40815-017-0298-x Chinese Fuzzy Systems Association restricted
spellingShingle Wei, Z.
Yiu, K.
Wong, H.
Chan, Kit Yan
A Novel Multivariate Volatility Modeling for Risk Management in Stock Markets
title A Novel Multivariate Volatility Modeling for Risk Management in Stock Markets
title_full A Novel Multivariate Volatility Modeling for Risk Management in Stock Markets
title_fullStr A Novel Multivariate Volatility Modeling for Risk Management in Stock Markets
title_full_unstemmed A Novel Multivariate Volatility Modeling for Risk Management in Stock Markets
title_short A Novel Multivariate Volatility Modeling for Risk Management in Stock Markets
title_sort novel multivariate volatility modeling for risk management in stock markets
url http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11937/67540