Fertility and savings contractions in China: long-run global implications
Following three decades of rapid but unbalanced economic growth, China's reform agendas are set to rebalance the economy towards consumption while maintaining strong GDP growth. Headwinds include a demographic contraction that will bring negative labour force growth and rapid ageing. Rising age...
| Main Authors: | , , |
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| Format: | Journal Article |
| Published: |
Wiley-Blackwell Publishing
2017
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| Online Access: | http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11937/66827 |
| _version_ | 1848761403342585856 |
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| author | Zhou, Yixiao Tyers, R. Golley, J. |
| author_facet | Zhou, Yixiao Tyers, R. Golley, J. |
| author_sort | Zhou, Yixiao |
| building | Curtin Institutional Repository |
| collection | Online Access |
| description | Following three decades of rapid but unbalanced economic growth, China's reform agendas are set to rebalance the economy towards consumption while maintaining strong GDP growth. Headwinds include a demographic contraction that will bring negative labour force growth and rapid ageing. Rising aged dependency combined with lower saving rates will rebalance the economy, but they will reduce both GDP growth and real per capita income. While an effective two‐child policy could sustain growth and eventually mitigate the aged dependency problem, it would set real per capita income on a still lower path. These conundrums are examined using a global economic and demographic model, which shows how the continuing demographic and saving contractions in China would alter the trajectories of both the Chinese and global economies. |
| first_indexed | 2025-11-14T10:31:07Z |
| format | Journal Article |
| id | curtin-20.500.11937-66827 |
| institution | Curtin University Malaysia |
| institution_category | Local University |
| last_indexed | 2025-11-14T10:31:07Z |
| publishDate | 2017 |
| publisher | Wiley-Blackwell Publishing |
| recordtype | eprints |
| repository_type | Digital Repository |
| spelling | curtin-20.500.11937-668272019-01-21T02:00:08Z Fertility and savings contractions in China: long-run global implications Zhou, Yixiao Tyers, R. Golley, J. Following three decades of rapid but unbalanced economic growth, China's reform agendas are set to rebalance the economy towards consumption while maintaining strong GDP growth. Headwinds include a demographic contraction that will bring negative labour force growth and rapid ageing. Rising aged dependency combined with lower saving rates will rebalance the economy, but they will reduce both GDP growth and real per capita income. While an effective two‐child policy could sustain growth and eventually mitigate the aged dependency problem, it would set real per capita income on a still lower path. These conundrums are examined using a global economic and demographic model, which shows how the continuing demographic and saving contractions in China would alter the trajectories of both the Chinese and global economies. 2017 Journal Article http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11937/66827 10.1111/twec.12602 Wiley-Blackwell Publishing restricted |
| spellingShingle | Zhou, Yixiao Tyers, R. Golley, J. Fertility and savings contractions in China: long-run global implications |
| title | Fertility and savings contractions in China: long-run global implications |
| title_full | Fertility and savings contractions in China: long-run global implications |
| title_fullStr | Fertility and savings contractions in China: long-run global implications |
| title_full_unstemmed | Fertility and savings contractions in China: long-run global implications |
| title_short | Fertility and savings contractions in China: long-run global implications |
| title_sort | fertility and savings contractions in china: long-run global implications |
| url | http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11937/66827 |