Climate variability and the outbreaks of cholera in Zanzibar, East Africa: A time series analysis
Global cholera incidence is increasing, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa. We examined the impact of climate and ocean environmental variability on cholera outbreaks, and developed a forecasting model for outbreaks in Zanzibar. Routine cholera surveillance reports between 1997 and 2006 were correla...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , |
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| Format: | Journal Article |
| Published: |
The American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene
2011
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| Online Access: | http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11937/65755 |
| _version_ | 1848761196397723648 |
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| author | Reyburn, R. Kim, D. Emch, M. Khatib, A. Von Seidlein, L. Ali, Mohammed |
| author_facet | Reyburn, R. Kim, D. Emch, M. Khatib, A. Von Seidlein, L. Ali, Mohammed |
| author_sort | Reyburn, R. |
| building | Curtin Institutional Repository |
| collection | Online Access |
| description | Global cholera incidence is increasing, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa. We examined the impact of climate and ocean environmental variability on cholera outbreaks, and developed a forecasting model for outbreaks in Zanzibar. Routine cholera surveillance reports between 1997 and 2006 were correlated with remotely and locally sensed environmental data. A seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model determined the impact of climate and environmental variability on cholera. The SARIMA model shows temporal clustering of cholera. A 1° C increase in temperature at 4 months lag resulted in a 2-fold increase of cholera cases, and an increase of 200 mm of rainfall at 2 months lag resulted in a 1.6-fold increase of cholera cases. Temperature and rainfall interaction yielded a significantly positive association ( P < 0.04) with cholera at a 1-month lag. These results may be applied to forecast cholera outbreaks, and guide public health resources in controlling cholera in Zanzibar. Copyright © 2011 by The American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene. |
| first_indexed | 2025-11-14T10:27:50Z |
| format | Journal Article |
| id | curtin-20.500.11937-65755 |
| institution | Curtin University Malaysia |
| institution_category | Local University |
| last_indexed | 2025-11-14T10:27:50Z |
| publishDate | 2011 |
| publisher | The American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene |
| recordtype | eprints |
| repository_type | Digital Repository |
| spelling | curtin-20.500.11937-657552018-02-19T08:06:42Z Climate variability and the outbreaks of cholera in Zanzibar, East Africa: A time series analysis Reyburn, R. Kim, D. Emch, M. Khatib, A. Von Seidlein, L. Ali, Mohammed Global cholera incidence is increasing, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa. We examined the impact of climate and ocean environmental variability on cholera outbreaks, and developed a forecasting model for outbreaks in Zanzibar. Routine cholera surveillance reports between 1997 and 2006 were correlated with remotely and locally sensed environmental data. A seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model determined the impact of climate and environmental variability on cholera. The SARIMA model shows temporal clustering of cholera. A 1° C increase in temperature at 4 months lag resulted in a 2-fold increase of cholera cases, and an increase of 200 mm of rainfall at 2 months lag resulted in a 1.6-fold increase of cholera cases. Temperature and rainfall interaction yielded a significantly positive association ( P < 0.04) with cholera at a 1-month lag. These results may be applied to forecast cholera outbreaks, and guide public health resources in controlling cholera in Zanzibar. Copyright © 2011 by The American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene. 2011 Journal Article http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11937/65755 10.4269/ajtmh.2011.10-0277 The American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene unknown |
| spellingShingle | Reyburn, R. Kim, D. Emch, M. Khatib, A. Von Seidlein, L. Ali, Mohammed Climate variability and the outbreaks of cholera in Zanzibar, East Africa: A time series analysis |
| title | Climate variability and the outbreaks of cholera in Zanzibar, East Africa: A time series analysis |
| title_full | Climate variability and the outbreaks of cholera in Zanzibar, East Africa: A time series analysis |
| title_fullStr | Climate variability and the outbreaks of cholera in Zanzibar, East Africa: A time series analysis |
| title_full_unstemmed | Climate variability and the outbreaks of cholera in Zanzibar, East Africa: A time series analysis |
| title_short | Climate variability and the outbreaks of cholera in Zanzibar, East Africa: A time series analysis |
| title_sort | climate variability and the outbreaks of cholera in zanzibar, east africa: a time series analysis |
| url | http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11937/65755 |