Future global mortality from changes in air pollution attributable to climate change
Ground-level ozone and fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) are associated with premature human mortality; their future concentrations depend on changes in emissions, which dominate the near-term, and on climate change. Previous global studies of the air-quality-related health effects of future climate...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Journal Article |
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Nature Publishing Group
2017
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| Online Access: | http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11937/60384 |
| _version_ | 1848760602103644160 |
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| author | Silva, R. West, J. Lamarque, J. Shindell, D. Collins, Bill Faluvegi, G. Folberth, G. Horowitz, L. Nagashima, T. Naik, V. Rumbold, S. Sudo, K. Takemura, T. Bergmann, D. Cameron-Smith, P. Doherty, R. Josse, B. MacKenzie, I. Stevenson, D. Zeng, G. |
| author_facet | Silva, R. West, J. Lamarque, J. Shindell, D. Collins, Bill Faluvegi, G. Folberth, G. Horowitz, L. Nagashima, T. Naik, V. Rumbold, S. Sudo, K. Takemura, T. Bergmann, D. Cameron-Smith, P. Doherty, R. Josse, B. MacKenzie, I. Stevenson, D. Zeng, G. |
| author_sort | Silva, R. |
| building | Curtin Institutional Repository |
| collection | Online Access |
| description | Ground-level ozone and fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) are associated with premature human mortality; their future concentrations depend on changes in emissions, which dominate the near-term, and on climate change. Previous global studies of the air-quality-related health effects of future climate change used single atmospheric models. However, in related studies, mortality results differ among models. Here we use an ensemble of global chemistry-climate models to show that premature mortality from changes in air pollution attributable to climate change, under the high greenhouse gas scenario RCP8.5 (ref.), is probably positive. We estimate 3,340 (-30,300 to 47,100) ozone-related deaths in 2030, relative to 2000 climate, and 43,600 (-195,000 to 237,000) in 2100 (14% of the increase in global ozone-related mortality). For PM 2.5 , we estimate 55,600 (-34,300 to 164,000) deaths in 2030 and 215,000 (-76,100 to 595,000) in 2100 (countering by 16% the global decrease in PM 2.5 -related mortality). Premature mortality attributable to climate change is estimated to be positive in all regions except Africa, and is greatest in India and East Asia. Most individual models yield increased mortality from climate change, but some yield decreases, suggesting caution in interpreting results from a single model. Climate change mitigation is likely to reduce air-pollution-related mortality. |
| first_indexed | 2025-11-14T10:18:23Z |
| format | Journal Article |
| id | curtin-20.500.11937-60384 |
| institution | Curtin University Malaysia |
| institution_category | Local University |
| last_indexed | 2025-11-14T10:18:23Z |
| publishDate | 2017 |
| publisher | Nature Publishing Group |
| recordtype | eprints |
| repository_type | Digital Repository |
| spelling | curtin-20.500.11937-603842018-04-09T01:06:37Z Future global mortality from changes in air pollution attributable to climate change Silva, R. West, J. Lamarque, J. Shindell, D. Collins, Bill Faluvegi, G. Folberth, G. Horowitz, L. Nagashima, T. Naik, V. Rumbold, S. Sudo, K. Takemura, T. Bergmann, D. Cameron-Smith, P. Doherty, R. Josse, B. MacKenzie, I. Stevenson, D. Zeng, G. Ground-level ozone and fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) are associated with premature human mortality; their future concentrations depend on changes in emissions, which dominate the near-term, and on climate change. Previous global studies of the air-quality-related health effects of future climate change used single atmospheric models. However, in related studies, mortality results differ among models. Here we use an ensemble of global chemistry-climate models to show that premature mortality from changes in air pollution attributable to climate change, under the high greenhouse gas scenario RCP8.5 (ref.), is probably positive. We estimate 3,340 (-30,300 to 47,100) ozone-related deaths in 2030, relative to 2000 climate, and 43,600 (-195,000 to 237,000) in 2100 (14% of the increase in global ozone-related mortality). For PM 2.5 , we estimate 55,600 (-34,300 to 164,000) deaths in 2030 and 215,000 (-76,100 to 595,000) in 2100 (countering by 16% the global decrease in PM 2.5 -related mortality). Premature mortality attributable to climate change is estimated to be positive in all regions except Africa, and is greatest in India and East Asia. Most individual models yield increased mortality from climate change, but some yield decreases, suggesting caution in interpreting results from a single model. Climate change mitigation is likely to reduce air-pollution-related mortality. 2017 Journal Article http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11937/60384 10.1038/nclimate3354 Nature Publishing Group restricted |
| spellingShingle | Silva, R. West, J. Lamarque, J. Shindell, D. Collins, Bill Faluvegi, G. Folberth, G. Horowitz, L. Nagashima, T. Naik, V. Rumbold, S. Sudo, K. Takemura, T. Bergmann, D. Cameron-Smith, P. Doherty, R. Josse, B. MacKenzie, I. Stevenson, D. Zeng, G. Future global mortality from changes in air pollution attributable to climate change |
| title | Future global mortality from changes in air pollution attributable to climate change |
| title_full | Future global mortality from changes in air pollution attributable to climate change |
| title_fullStr | Future global mortality from changes in air pollution attributable to climate change |
| title_full_unstemmed | Future global mortality from changes in air pollution attributable to climate change |
| title_short | Future global mortality from changes in air pollution attributable to climate change |
| title_sort | future global mortality from changes in air pollution attributable to climate change |
| url | http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11937/60384 |